“Week Four has usually been good to us. Quite often, the teams we liked Week Three that found a way to lose have turned it around in Week Four and paid a better price because of it.” This year was no different however in our feature game of the week, indeed our favorite game the entire first quarter of the season, there was no way to know in advance that Jaguars rookie place kicker Jason Myers would fold up entirely when an important game was on the line by missing two field goals in the fourth quarter and another in overtime. Curiously, Myers was signed this season to replace the goat from Thursday night’s Steelers loss (Scobee) who also missed twice in the fourth quarter and then caused Pittsburgh to go for it (and fail) on fourth down twice in overtime. The Colts had no trouble there as they have had Adam Vinatieri since New England replaced him with Gotskowski at the other end of the spectrum (the end where kickers make every extra point and almost every field goal - Gotskowski hasn't missed anything since a 47 yard field goal attempt at Lambeau in November of 2014 and the last time he missed an extra point was in the second half of his final game as a rookie way back in 2006).
San Francisco managed to hold Green Bay to 17 points however the 49ers could only muster 3 points of their own as Kaepernick managed to attain a passer rating of only 55.3 which, although much better than last week’s 16.7, was contrasted by Aaron Rodgers 99 (the first time this season Rodgers has been under 100) as the Packers won easily. The single touchdown the 49ers needed to cover the 8 1/2 point spread was never imminent.
In other games, as predicted, most of the teams we liked in Week 3 did bounce back Week 4 with the Bears, Jets and Giants all winning
Thursday Night Football
5/7 Baltimore Ravens -2.5 AT 6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) O/U 43.5
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 6/5 - 3 Units/ 6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 - 3 Units/6
Result - BAL 23 PIT 20
As mentioned above, Scobee is now looking for a new job as he cost the Steelers a valuable divisional win.
Sunday's Games
7/2 Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.0) AT 1/5 Indianapolis Colts (-9.0) O/U 48
Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars @ 7/2 - 20 Units/31
Result – IND 16 JAC 13
While the Jaguars learned that they need a real NFL placekicker, they also learned that they have a team capable of winning their division. A divisional road win would have been huge for them and the fact that they put themselves in position to win the game three times over (Myers three missed field goals) has got to be encouraging. Colt’s backup QB Matt Hasselback actually played better than Andrew Luck has been playing so there is no shame there.
2/1 New York Giants (+5.5) AT 5/12 Buffalo Bills (-5.5) O/U 46.5
Selection: New York Giants @ 2/1 - 5 Units/11
Result – NYG 24 BUF 10
Nice to get the entire game correct with the Giants taking their show on the road to the Ralph where Eli Manning offset his first interception of the season with three (3) touchdowns, none of which was to Beckham. Ryan may have taken Beckham virtually out of the game with his defence but all that did was open up the game to the other guys. New York’s defence, although much maligned and missing arguably their best player (JPP), had little trouble limiting the press’s current “15 minutes off fame” favorite Tyrod “Car Part” Taylor to ten (10) points. It turns out the Bills Week One win over the Colts doesn’t really mean anything as the Colts would be 0-4 if Jacksonville had a proper placekicker or Tennessee had a proper coach whereas there are significant problems with the other team the Bills beat, the Dolphins, especially with Regis’s brother Joe Philbin whom it looks like owner Ross is finally going to fire today (Monday)* at a scheduled press conference. As such, there is no way to tell if this year’s model of the Bills is any better, or even as good, as the team that went 9-7 last season. After the Bills go into Jacksonville Week Seven we will have a better idea but right now they continue to get bet, opening at 8/11 for their Week Five visit to Tennessee.
*Ross did indeed fire Philbin on Monday
5/2 St. Louis Rams (+7) AT 1/3 Arizona Cardinals (-7) O/U 42.5
Selection: St. Louis Rams @ 5/2 - 5 Units/ St. Louis Rams (+7) - 5 Units/41
Result – NYG 24 BUF 10
The Rams did match up well against Carson Palmer and Nick Foles did start scoring some points as the Rams moved into second place in the NFC West (they are still 11/2 to win the division) where if they tie with the Cardinal’s it would be broken by this win (so far in any case). The running game did have Chris Johnson averaging over 5 yards a carry for the Cards but the Rams wunderkid Todd Gurley, who did play a prominent role in this one in his second start off the shelf by burning for 155 yards (mostly in the second half). Nick Foles did his part by putting up passer rating of 126.9 on the strength of his 3 TD’s/0 INT’s. The Rams seem to play much better any time they are 5/2 or better and get yet another chance to pay off big at Lambeau this Sunday where they opened at over 4/1 (17/4) for their road game against the Packers, another team the Rams match up well with on paper.
5/19 Green Bay Packers (-8.5) AT 29/10 San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) O/U 48.5
Selection: San Francisco 49ers @ 29/10 - 3 Units/ San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) - 9 Units/47
Result – GB 17 SF 3
It is hard to gauge just where the 49errs fit into the overall order of things with Kaepernick putting a passer rating of only 55.3 at home meanwhile the Packers continued to appear able to do no wrong.
NYJ @ MIA (London, UK)
Result – NYJ 27 MIA 14
The Jets played like everyone was expecting them to last week and certainly paid off higher than they would have had they entered the game 3-0. New York looks to be the only possible team that can threaten the Patriots this season (apart from the Patriots themselves of course) although Fitzpatrick has never posted a winning record for a season in any of the ten (10) years he has been in the league (he was 4-4 in 2009 and 6-6 last year).
No Selection
PHI @ WAS
Result – WAS 23 PHI 20
As feared, the Eales did not win or cover the spread at 10/17 when Kirk Cousins led the Redskins on an improbable 90-yard drive to erase a three-point deficit. The Eagles still have a lot to do.
No Selection
CAR @ TB
CAR 37 TB 23
We could have broken our rule and bet the Panthers at 10/17 as Tampa gave up 37 with a pick six and two other interceptions in Tampa territory (out of four (4) total interceptions that Winston threw), however, that strategy is not profitable in the long run.
No Selection
OAK @ CHI
Result – CHI 22 @ OAK 20
Cutler did play, it was hard to believe that Chicago brought in Fox to lay down and the Raiders did lose on the road. This is why it is much better to leave these games alone as a firm rule.
No Selection
KC @ CIN
Result – CIN 36 @ KC 21
It turns out that the Bengals did dominate as their defence seem back to its old self. Too risky.
No Selection
HOU @ ATL
Result – ATL 48 HOU 21
It is amazing how well Dan Quinn has the Falcon defence playing. While Quinn is certainly due the bulk of the credit one must wonder just how bad of a job Smith started doing on both sides of the ball for Atlanta to have tanked so badly in 2013 and 2014.
No Selection
CLE @ SD
SD 30 CLE 27
This game ended up a lot closer than many expected. We wonder how many more games the Browns need to lose before Manziel gets the nod to start.
No Selection
MIN @ DEN
DEN 23 MIN 20
Bridgewater dropped the ball (literally) late to snuff out any comeback.
No Selection
Sunday Night Football
DAL @ NO
NO 26 DAL 20
Brandon Weeden did actually put together a fourth quarter drive and a touchdown for the first time in years to send the game to overtime but Brees drove the field after the OT kickoff foregoing any further chance for Dallas.
No Selection
Monday Night Football
DET @ SEA
The Lions did everything they needed to win this game but the officials erroneously took the ball from them on the one-yard line with under a minute left and gave it to Seattle. Crazy stuff indeed
No Selection
No comments:
Post a Comment