Week Five kicks off the second quarter of the season (for every team except Tennessee and New England coming into it off of their Bye Weeks) where typically playoff teams start to exercise their dominance has usually been good to us. Quite often, the teams we liked Week Three that found a way to lose have turned it around in Week Four and paid a better price because of it and them gone on to rattle off several straight wins. If one can identify which teams are good enough to sit at 7-3 come Week Eleven (before playoff pressure makes them crumble like Brian Hoyer last season) and then figure out what games they will almost certainly lose (Hint – Visiting Lambeau or Gillette are good examples) there is money to be made.
Going forward, teams like Green Bay and New England will continue to be big favorites until they lose a game. We took a position on the Bengals this week despite the fact that we rarely accept less than 1/1 (although we can bet teams between 1/2 and 1/1 when merited). Cincinnati’s defence is for real so far this year and by finishing second in the AFC North last season they miss the Patriots and instead get the Bills. They will always be limited with Andy Dalton at QB but under the right circumstances they could go to a Super Bowl (their defence is playing that well) and were able to spend their top two draft picks on OLine prospects. DC Paul Guenther has even found a use for A.J. Hawk, something Dom Capers was unable to do.
With Big Ben on the shelf in Pittsburgh, the Bengals November 1st visit should go much better than it would have otherwise and having already won in Baltimore there is a real possibility that the Bengals go 6-0 in their division as the Browns offence without Hoyer does not seem to have enough jump in its stump to repeat last year performance where Dalton put up a passer rating of 2 at home. If the Bengals have no problem shutting down the anemic Seahawk offence (most probably without Lynch to boot) their games in Buffalo and in Arizona (plus a home game against the Giant Killer St. Louis Rams) and then later on in Denver look to be the most troublesome. Finishing with a 12-4 record may earn Cinci a seeding which would give them a home game in the second round.
Notwithstanding the Bengals, each division in the AFC has the usual suspects at the top, all headed by undefeated teams except the AFC South where dumb luck has Indianapolis in first place and at 1/7 to win the division. Tennessee and Houston are 10/1 now with Jacksonville, who would be alone in first place if their field goal kicker made any one of three field goals he missed in Indy last Sunday, still 20-1 despite having the softest schedule of the four teams. We fully expect Indianapolis to lose four of their next five games (New England, New Orleans, Carolina, Denver and Atlanta) as the four are against teams yet to lose this season and the fifth against New Orleans is in serious doubt. Bet any one of New England, Carolina, Denver and Atlanta if they are at odds of 1/2 or better. We realistically see eight (8) potential losses up ahead for the Colts. If they win 2 of those games as well as the ones they are expected to they will finish 8-8 which might do it this year.
Jacksonville now has enough properly coached talent to win against anyone not “elite” but need to learn how to win, the only thing that can’t be coached. They should be 2-2 and looking at their schedule Atlanta is the only team that is performing at an elite level that the Jags will face the rest of the way. This next stretch where they start in Tampa Bay and then host the Texans and the Bills will show what they can do. With the Colts on their way to Foxborough to get chewed up by a healthy Patriots squad next week the Jags can pull even with them at 3-3 with two straight wins. We shall see if their heartbreaking loss in Indy last week serves to inspire them to greater heights (which we hope it does) or causes them to lose faith in themselves (they are too young and it is too early in the season for that). If the Texans stick with Hoyer they also have a realistic shot at first place in the wide open AFC South where Tennessee is a few years and a head coach away from contending with Marcus MarryOughta.
Nothing has changed in the AFC East where, barring a rash of injuries (always a possibility), The New England Patriots look to dominate for another year as the Dolphins just fired their coach, the Bills don’t have a coach (Ryan has lost 52 games over 7 seasons as an HC – Belichick has lost 65 games over 16 seasons as a contrast and Ryan has lost more games than he has won) and the Jets don’t have a quarterback (Fitzpatrick has never finished a season better than 0.500 despite starting out 3-1 on several occasions). Things are far from boring in Baaastin notwithstanding as Top AFC Playoff Seed, going 16-0 again (New England is the only team to have done so presently),earning Tom Brady another MVP award and of course repeating as Super Bowl Champions all being real possibilities. This weekend the Patriots go to the Big “D” to face Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys looking for their seventh straight win going back to Week Seventeen last season when they rested their starters against Buffalo.
Over in the AFC West, we are as surprised as anyone that the Broncos are 4-0 despite the visible decline in Peyton Manning’s physical capabilities. We are not believers in the Kubiak/Phillips alliance, last seen driving the Texans into a 2-14 ditch while Kubiak deliberately submarined Case Keenum’s play calls after two weeks of very exciting football so he could justify playing his pal Matt Schaub instead. It looks like the defence mostly put together by John Fox is finally healthy and gelling but the Kubiak/Phillips alliance will doubtless screw that up at some point. Further, it is unreasonable to expect Peyton Manning to get through the year unscathed. He is simply too old and fragile to still be playing in the NFL after years and years of getting knocked around that included a broken neck. We earnestly hope that Peyton hangs them up before he gets crippled for life.
If the Broncos flounder, don’t expect the Kansas City Chiefs to rush in and fill the void. Having watched Kansas City just lose three (3) straight games to teams with At the top of their divisions and yet to lose a game this season, it was strikingly apparent that Alex Smith is neither a very good nor particularly effective quarterback. He must have the physical skills to have been selected first overall by San Fran so the problem must be mental. Alex Smith plays like someone who is so afraid of making a mistake that they just want the play to be over already.
The Oakland Raiders are not the worst team in the AFC anymore however their loss to the Bears last weekend helps keep things in perspective. With the light schedule finishing last entails (the New Yok Jets notwithstanding) not really helping (vs NFC North and AFC North), it will be a surprise if this team finishes at 0.500 or better with the Playoffs out of the question (we would love to be proven wrong here as we have an affinity for the Raiders from the days of The Snake and Jim Plunkett).
The San Diego Chargers it would seem will step up or no one will. Every year for several years the Chargers have looked ready to make a move and every year injuries seem to derail them so either there is something faulty with their practices (or practice facilities) or they don’t have the required depth to contest a 16 game season. If the Chargers can win four (4) of their next five (5) games (this allows for a loss at Lambeau) to go into their Bye Week 10 sitting at 6-3 with both Bronco matches still to come they could be in position to strike when Denver inevitably falters.
Over in the NFC, things appear to be similar with the NFC East resembling the AFC South and the other three divisions having clear leaders except the NFC South, which sent the team with the worst record to the Playoffs last season, the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers, is sporting two 4-0 teams in Atlanta and Carolina. The NFC East got thrown wide open when the new kids on the Philadelphia Eagle’s block did not mesh well and then Tony Romo and Dez Bryant went down in Dallas (and Brandon Weeden took over), something went right for the Giants as Eli Manning stopped throwing interceptions and started winning games and Washington finally gave up the ghost on Booby Griffon the Tird and stuck with Captain Kirk Cousins until he started winning games and everyone is tied at 2-2 except Philly who is a game behind everyone else at 1-3. Where this is going is anyone’s guess with the public leaving three teams at 9/4 and surprisingly Washington at double the odds (9/2) despite Washington enjoying the softer schedule having already beaten St. Louis and with Tampa Bay yet to come.
Until the Cowboys switch to Matt Cassel under center it is tough to imagine them winning a game before mid-November with New England in town this Sunday, a Bye Week, a trip to New York and then a visit from the Seahawks. On the other hand, if they do switch to Cassel and he gets enough reps with the first team Dallas could start winning the week after their Bye Week (if Dez Bryant really is back by then) and just keep on going right up to their visit to Lambeau in December. Washington does have the softer schedule and Kirk Cousins will only get better with experience coupled with a defence that is no longer terrible. The Redskins are big underdogs this weekend to the (surprisingly) 4-0 Atlanta Falcons. It is high time the Redskins cut bait on Desean Jackson (despite foolishly guaranteeing him $16 million and got themselves a WR1 who actually shows up to play.
The New York Giants meanwhile could be back in Super Bowl mode, as they have been the last two times they played the AFC East, and you have to like the way they summarily dismissed the Bills last weekend. Everyone is waiting for the Philadelphia Eagles to take off under Sam Bradford but watching him on the field does not inspire any confidence. It is looking like Chip Kelly took a swing and a miss at that one and Nick Foles was a much better option than butt fumbler. Perhaps Chip will get desperate enough to go to his third stringer, Thad Lewis, who would thrive in the Eagle offence and who looked pretty good (at times) directing a listless Buffalo Bills squad in 2013.
The Detroit Lions are 0-4 and have been best by injuries however they did have a certain victory over Seattle taken from them by the officials last week. It is almost impossible to imagine the Lions recovering from 0-4, especially with two games against the Packers remaining. The Minnesota Vikings again have a poor Quarterback to waste another, and perhaps the last, of Adrian Peterson’s prime years. It is almost equally impossible to imagine Minnesota winning anything with Teddy Wobblyballs however Adrian Peterson could carry them for another eight (8) wins and a Wild Card without it being too much of a stretch.
The Chicago Bears could be interesting again. After meeting Playoff teams from 2014 in their first three games (0-3) the Bears got their first “W” last week over the 2-2 Oakland Raiders and do not meet another Playoff team from 2014 until late November however four of those five games are on the road so Head Coach John Fox certainly has his work cut out for him. The Bears defence should be better under Fox and Alshon Jeffery will return at some point. If the Bears can get to 6-4 a Wild Card is not out of the question. The Green Bay Packers rule the NFC North and most likely the entire NFC. It will be interesting to see how good this team is. We have the Rams taking them done this week as our Longshot of the Week as teams will be gunning for them all season long and someone is going to beat them.
The Atlanta Falcons are 4-0 after having swept three of the four NFC East teams (with Washington on tap this weekend to complete the series) and are tied with the 4-0 Carolina Panthers however the Falcons have beaten better teams than the Panthers have and have the easier schedule moving forward. New Orleans just beat Dallas but doesn’t have the defence (Rob Ryan is a serious liability) to contend and Tampa Bay continues to play as the worst team in the league although they too were able to get one over on Rob Ryan. Atlanta is going to the Playoffs barring the usual injury onslaught but how they will measure up to the Packers remains to be seen.
On the left coast in the NFC West it has become painfully apparent that teams have caught on to the likes of Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, both of whom have become liabilities to their teams. The Seahawks should be 1-3 alongside the 49ers had the officials not stolen their last game from the Lions. They should have to go back and re-play the final minute or so of that game or do something to correct the Seahawks record, especially if it affect any part of home field Playoff considerations. Neither team is a legitimate Playoff threat this season having hopelessly ineffective offences and defences that have suffered too many losses, including two (2) Defensive Coordinators in Seattle.
The two possibly legitimate Playoff threats, St. Louis and Arizona, faced-off last weekend in the desert where the Rams came out on top. The Rams unquestionably have the better roster due to the ridiculous trade that sent Booby to Warshington however Coach Jeff Fisher is a serious deficiency. Bruce Arians on the other hand is the reason the Cardinals have played so well under him. At 11/5, Arizona is likely the right bet to make on the NFC West winner however Carson Palmer could crash and burn at any time leaving it wide open for the Rams if they can just put together a winning season. The Rams have the talent to go 12-4 (looking at their schedule) especially if Todd Gurley can repeat his second half performance against Arizona. We suggest taking the St Louis Rams at 11/2 to win the NFC West.
No comments:
Post a Comment