The NFL in the moment - Saturday, PM, Week Seven - 2015

New!!! See our Alternate Spread Selections for Week Seven Below!!!

Weeks seven through eleven are the dog days of summer in the NFL where true play-off contenders try to rest as many stars as they can (Ben Roethlisberger and Dez Bryant are obvious examples while Gronkowski, targeted only five (5) times the past two games is more subtle) because they might be needed for the stretch run to get into the post season and will most certainly be needed in the Playoffs. Most teams have their Bye week during this stretch and since going 16-0 in 2007 the Patriots have lost one (1) or two (2) games during this stretch (including Week Twelve) even during 14-2 or 13-3 seasons. Trying to figure out which game(s) the ”perfects” (the five (5) unbeaten, thus far, teams) is the task. The odds for the teams they play against will be quite attractive.

Looking at Week Seven, where we have football from 9:30am until around midnight with the Bills/Jags clash in London, England, the Bengals, Broncos or Packers won’t lose for certain as they are all on their Bye Week. The Jets visit Foxborough and have slid from 9/2 to 4/1 and are already down to 7/2*with some bookmakers while the Eagles are 13/8 when they travel to Charlotte. Chip Kelly’s Eagles are certainly playing defence well enough and every week everyone expects Sam Bradford to “get it together” however when one looks at Bradford’s career numbers he is playing pretty much at his average Passer Rating right around 80 so it seems that this is as good as it gets with Bradford. In the other game, New England is 6-1 against Jets QB Fitzpatrick while Brady is 20-6 against the Jets.

* Jets down to 3/1 as of Thursday while New England is up to 2/7
* Jets down to 14/5 Saturday AM

Sunday Morning Football

5/11 Buffalo Bills -5.5 @ 21/10 Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

The Jaguars have disappointed thus far this season but are accustomed to playing in London while the Bills have only played off-site in Toronto where the game that EJ Manuel started was so poorly received and attended that the Bills stopped going there. Jacksonville is expected to win more than the three (3) games they won last year and perhaps this is one of them. We are taking a flyer on the Jags plus the points to make getting up and watching the game worthwhile..

Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 for 2 units

Sunday Afternoon Football

7/4 Houston Texans +4.0 @ 10/21 Miami Dolphins -4.0

It seems that the coaching change in Miami has caused the entire team to give its collective heads a shake with their convincing win over poorly coached Tennessee however Billy O’B and George Godsey have Brian Hoyer playing at a high level and the Texans defence is still expected to be heard from where Belichick acolyte Mike Vrabel is still waiting for a healthy Clowney to get going. We are going to go with the Texans as we expect Miami.to backslide a bit after winning their first game under interim coach Dan Campbell. They did only beat the worst (or second worst) teams in the league in the Titans.

Selection: Houston Texans @ 7/4 for 2 Units/7/4 Houston Texans +4.0 for 4 Units

6/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 @ 10/17 Washington Redskins -3.0

Betting on Captain Kirk when getting a touchdown or at better than 2/1 is one thing but GIVING points and odds of 10/17 are an entirely different affair particularly when their offensive line is all banged up and the one that went out there and played every single offensive snap had two (2) starts collectively prior to this year but Lichtensteiger and Williams could play this week. Tampa meanwhile is getting tremendous production out of Williams and when their running game clicks and Winston only has to throw 20 passes he can be very effective. The Bucs would seem to be the play here to even their record at 3-3 especially if Cousins tosses his customary two (2) Interceptions but we pass.

Selection: None

20/29 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ 5/4 Detroit Lions +2.5

Teddy Wobblyballs and Adrian Peterson take on Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson in Motown where the Lions are Home Dogs. In what could be Megatron’s Swan Song the Lions dug themselves into a 1-5 hole (although in fairness they would be 2-4 had the officials known the rules in the Seattle game) the Lions find themselves in the unenviable position of needing to run the table just to have a chance at the Wild Card playoff spots. Minnesota sits at 3-2 with two (2) of the three (3) wins coming on the back of All Day and on the other side Alex Smith’s ineptitude is compounded with Kansas City’s loss of Jamaal Charles. Look for the Lions to even the season series as Peterson’s production has dropped off dramatically and the Lions sit tied for 17th in run defence at 4.0 yards per carry.

Selection: Detroit Lions 5/4 for 4 Units

9/5 New Orleans Saints +4.5 @ 5/11 Indianapolis Colts -4.5

It wasn’t that long ago that the Saints were relevant and Drew Brees was almost never the underdog but Brees isn’t the problem: DC Rob Ryan is the problem. If the Saints defence shows up to play for 60 minutes they can compete with anyone. Shedding Diva Jimmy Graham and Junior Gallette while picking up All Pro center Max Unger will pay off and the Saints were able to put it together enough to put away the theretofore undefeated Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots did not need to embarrass the Colts as they took their foot off the gas after Chuck’s gaffe put them ahead for good on SNF. The Colts would be 2-4 had Jacksonville’s FG kicker made any one (1) of three (3) Field Goals before Viniteri iced it for the Colts. Take the points and go with Brees and the Saints.

Selection: New Orleans Saints +4.5 for 4 Units

8/15 Atlanta Falcons -4.0 @ 15/8 Tennessee Titans +4.0

Tennessee is the worst (or second worst) teams in the league while Atlanta was unbeaten up until the Saints beat them last week. As bad as Tennessee is Atlanta should be 1/5, which they would have been had they beaten the Saints. Talk about a “get right” game! Hammer the Falcons at anything as good as or better than 1/2.

Selection: Atlanta Falcons @ 8/15 for 8 Units

13/4 New York Jets +9 @ 2/9 New England Patriots -9.0

This Patriots team is very good however they are dealing with any number of injuries which of course Bill Belichick won’t release an accurate appraisal of until late Sunday morning, but the numbers speak for them self. Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-6 lifetime while Brady is 20-6 against the Jets and has played well enough to win the last nine (9) games against New York making an exception for the loss 10-20-2013 when the officials called a penalty never called before or after allowing the Jets a second chance, five yards closer, to kick the winning FG from 42 yards after missing a 56 yarder which would have given Brady and the Patriots the ball at their own 38, a couple of first downs away from Gotskowski’s range. Will the Patriots lose? Extremely doubtful but don’t bet the house on it. Meanwhile, leave the spread alone because Belichick will pull his hurting starters as soon as the game is in hand so you never know for certain how much they can get ahead by the middle of the third quarter.

Selection: New England Patriots @ 2/9 for 18 Units

2/1 Cleveland Browns +5.5 @ 5/12 St. Louis Rams -5.5

The Browns were on the Broncos 39 yard line with a first down in overtime after intercepting a Peyton Manning pass and instead of getting a little closer for a FG attempt McCown ended up in a fourth down and 28. Denver did not mess it up a second time and subsequently drove for the winning FG. We ask ourselves, if Cleveland had broken Denver’s unbeaten streak, now at six (6) games, to go to 3-3, who would be favored here. St. Louis has the talent to beat any team in the league, due to in a large part the Robert Griffin fiasco in Washington, but Jeff Fisher is such a lousy coach that they seldom do. Fisher’s winning percentage has never been at or over 0.500 and has in fact declined each season. The Rams only seem to win at 5/2 or better, especially within their division, yet almost always disappoint when favored. We have to take 5.5 points and go with the Browns.

Selection: Cleveland Browns +5.5 for 8 Units

5/8 Pittsburgh Steelers –3.5 @ 7/5 KC Chiefs +3.5

The importance of KC’s loss of Jamaal Charles cannot be understated as he has been the engine that runs the Chiefs for quite some time. Alex Smith has never played without a dominant runner (Gore in SF and Charles in KC) so it is going to be a few weeks before Andy Reid’s solution is in place and, to make matters worse, Maclin is out this week as well. After starting 1-5 with some pretty difficult games upcoming 4-12, or even 2-14 could be realistic as Alex Smith is not capable of carrying his team all by himself. Landry Jones is a better QB at this point than Mike Vick and has been around long enough to learn the playbook. We were wondering how the four (4) year starter out of Oklahoma would fare in the NFL, and if last week’s comeback against a decent Cardinals team was any indication, very nice thank you very much is the answer. That was at home however and on the road in a stadium full of drunken Chiefs fans is another affair altogether and a difficult place to start your first game. There are simply too many better options this weekend to bet this game.

Selection: None

7/4 Oakland Raiders + 4.0 @ 10/21 San Diego Chargers -4.0

The Chargers are yet again in a deep hole to start the season but, as evidenced at Lambeau, Rivers can play at a tremendously high level under difficult conditions. It is the “easy” games (there are no easy games in the NFL) where the Chargers tend to fall down like losing to Minnesota earlier this season, the 37-zip loss to Miami last season and so on. We ended up taking the points and winning last week in Green Bay but the Chargers giving points is always a matter of picking your spots very, very wisely. In the Chargers past five (5) wins the margins of victory were a slim 3-5-3-1-3 points going back to last season (the 5 was in this year’s opener against Detroit). The Raiders are very young and very promising and an upset here should shock no one. Derek Carr’s 74 yard pick six served up to Harris was the difference in the Denver game and Bears kicker Robbie Gould was the difference in the Chicago game so the Raiders could easily be 4-2 instead of the 2-4 that they are. Rivers could very well annihilate Oakland but he has burned us way too many times before to bet on it.

Selection: None

6/4 Dallas Cowboys +3.5 @ 10/17 New York Giants -3.5

Matt Cassel’s childhood dream becomes a reality as he is the starting QB this week for the 2-3 Dallas Cowboys. A victory here coupled with an Eagles loss (see next game below) places the Cowboy’s all alone atop the NFC East.. The Giants are incredibly erratic and their pass rush is almost non-existent, especially since the moronic JPP blew of some part of or entire digits on his right hand piddling around with fireworks on the Fourth of July. The Cowboys won the first leg of this division rivalry with Romo but come into this game with Cassel. If you look at Cassel’s record the last seven (7) starts of 2008 (once he had learned how to play in the NFL) driving the Patriots (throw out the Steelers game as it was during a torrential downpour) or his Pro Bowl year in 2010 in Kansas City you can see that when he has enough talent around him he can perform at a very high level. Dallas also has an extremely good offensive line and a sturdy defence that gets rookie phenom Randy Gregory back for this contest. We expect a salty veteran like Cassel to be ready to play after being in the Big “D” for almost a month. If you want to take the 3.5 points it would be a good idea to do it as soon as possible as it is still available at a couple of Books but has shifted to 3.0 at most of the houses.

Selection: Dallas Cowboys @6/4 for 4 Units/Dallas Cowboys +3.5 for 4 Units

Sunday Night Football

6/4 Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 @ 10/17 Carolina Panthers -3

No one knows what is going on with the Eagles. Just sit down and watch a game and you too will be baffled. On MNF it looked as though the Giants were going to demolish them as NY drove down the field and scored on their first series and then held the Eagles.to a three-and-out BUT a moronic penalty for roughing the passer gave the Eagles a fresh set of downs and suddenly they were off to the races. The Eagles defence (number six (6) in scoring defence) kept the Giants from any more scoring. Carolina remains unbeaten after going to Seattle and quieting the screaming lunatics there by scoring the go-ahead TD with 36 seconds remaining handing the last-place Seahawks their first home defeat since Week Six last season. Cam Newton was very impressive in that game as he ran for the first score himself then leading a comeback from being down 20-7 late in the third quarter. Considering the Seahawks should be 1-5 (the officials blew the game deciding call because they did not know the rules) however the Panthers haven’t beat much this season in wins over Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, the Ryan Mallett version of the Texans and New Orleans when the Saints were winless. The Panthers schedule gets significantly more difficult from here whereas the Eagles have already handed the Jets their only loss and knocked the Giants out of sole possession of first place in their division. We are expecting the Panthers to get their first taste of defeat this Sunday night finding the Eagles defence too tough to crack.

Selection: Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 for 3 Units/Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 for 3 Units

Monday Night Football

29/10 Baltimore Ravens +8.5 @ 5/19 Arizona Cardinals -8.5

Carson Palmer’s second interception of the day (during which he also got mauled), this one after driving the ball deep in the Steelers Red Zone turned what looked like it was going to be the Cardinals go ahead score to make it a 20-18 lead for them with a couple of minutes left into a two (2) play, 90 yard scoring drive for Pittsburgh to actually make the score 25-13 as Landry Jones (see above) threw a short pass over the middle to Martavis Bryant who rambled 88 yards to and fro through the entire Arizona defence on the second play. Where that leaves the Cardinals, now 4-2, is anyone’s guess. Baltimore certainly burned a lot of other people’s money when they went to Levi’s Stadium where the 49ers, led by a steady Colin Kaepernick who threw for over 300 yards with zero interceptions for a Passer Rating approaching 130, now gets 8.5 points which is a lot for a team that has been beaten by three (3) points once, four (4) points twice, five (5) points once and six (6) points once with a defence that sorely misses its leader (Suggs). We you look at the teams that the Ravens lost to, two of which remain unbeaten, and compare them to the teams Arizona has beaten suddenly this game doesn’t look that one-sided. Take the points!

Selection: Baltimore Ravens +8.5 for 3 Units

Thursday Night Football

1/3 Seattle Seahawks -6.5 @ 5/2 San Francisco 49ers +6.5

Both teams stand at 2-4 (although Seattle would be 1-5 if the officials were not incompetent in Detroit) while the only team to beat San Francisco at their new home is the Packers. Why it is that people continue to gush about Seattle's defence is mystifying. The only game Seattle won fair and square was against the Bears with Jimmy Clausen at Quarterback. Exactly like a game of Jenga, the players that Seattle had to part with so they could pay the ones that they wanted to keep have forced the whole thing to crumble. Paying the incredibly mediocre Russel Wilson a ridiculous amount of money ended up causing them to lose CB Byron Maxwell and O'Brien Schofield, this year, and CB Brandon Browner, DE Red Bryant and DE Chris Clemons last year, the required intelligence for a dominant, league-leading defence is simply no longer there. It appears that Sherman cannot expect Chancellor, Thomas and whoever plays Right CB to get on the same page six games into the 16 game schedule. They have given away fourth-quarter leads five times. The only QB they did not allow to score in the fourth-quarter was Clausen, who could not put up points in any quarter losing 26-zip. Last week, with 36 seconds remaining, Cam Newton threw the ball deep right to a wide open, uncovered Greg Olsen for 26 yards and a touchdown. After the play they were yelling at each other. Seattle's new defensive coordinator Kris Richard is only 36, but has worked with Carroll since the USC days, can't seem to synchronize a relatively simple defence. Certainly take the six and one-half points and bet the 49ers straight up as well.

Selection: San Francisco 49ers @ 5/2 for 4 Units/San Francisco 49ers +6.5 for 4 Units