NFL Week Eight 2015
The New England Patriots come out of Week Eight after reeling off seven consecutive wins and are, in our minds at least, the only team with a chance to run the table. This is not because of relative strength of schedule or anything like that. If they do, or if they even try to do it, it will happen because of the mental toughness Brady and Belichick, Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia and many more possess from having done it already. It doesn’t seem likely that it would make sense to expose Brady, Gronk and guys like Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins to disgruntled Dolphins and Jets personnel if they have a first round bye locked up at that point.
It would be almost impossible for a Quarterback to play any better than Brady did on Thursday Night Football in front of tens of millions fans. Brady went 26 for 38 with 10 legitimate drops. That is 10 passes thrown directly to his receivers (are you paying attention Julian Edleman? You can be replaced by Amendola on any given Sunday) that were bumbled by the receiver, which is how Brady got charged with his first interception of the year (Edleman tipped the ball once, tipped the ball twice then fell down leaving Mike Adams of the Colts startled then very happy as he ran in a 14 yard pick six. We have not seen anything like it (we go back to Joe Willy in Super Bowl III).
Looking at the rest of Week Eight, there just doesn’t seem to be very many of our type games. Of all the games, we had a hard time finding three to go along with New England. On place we found was in Dallas, Texas. With Tony Romo slated to start getting reps next week, it is now or never for Matt Cassel. Last week, Cassel placed a perfect throw at the first down marker however Cowboy’s receiver Terrence Williams let Cro’ get position on him and the inexplicitly fell down leading to a 58 yard pick six and to add insult to injury, after Cassel drives the Cowboys down the field to tie it at 20, Cowboys former return ace Dwayne Harris takes one to the house on the ensuing kick-off. The coup de grace was when seldom thrown to Dallas TE James Hanna runs a six yard outlet route on fourth down and eight.
5/11 Seattle Seahawks - 5.0 @ 9/5 Dallas Cowboys +5.0
Dallas has to win this game (and the next two but let us stay in the moment) for many reasons. The Giants, who lead the NFC East and have finished this divisional series 1-1, have already beaten their NFC West opponent for the season (49ers) so Dallas must match that by winning here. Further, while the Giants get a relatively easy NFC North game against Teddy Wobblyballs in Minnesota, Dallas has to go to Lambeau to take on the thus far unbeaten Packers. All of this is in addition to the obvious fact that the Cowboys are a game and a half behind in the standings already. As far as a wild card goes, Dallas is fortunate that current two-loss team Minnesota might win another game or two, however unless Atlanta and/or Carolina regress significantly, the NFC South drawing the very bad AFC South this season gives even New Orleans a chance to finish anywhere from 10-6 to 12-4 even with Rob Ryan as DC.
The sum total of all of this is that if you are in the NFC East, you better win the division if you plan on playing past Week Seventeen. Can Cassel beat a team like the Seahawks? Yes, but he needs a go to guy in the mould of Randy Moss, enter one Dez Bryant. You could see last week that Jason Witten, a commensurate professional, was in sync with Cassel. Add in Bryant as a true deep ball threat and once Dallas establishes the run and sets up play-action, suddenly Seattle can’t put eight in the box. If they do, Cassel will look like Tom Brady, his mentor coming into the league and all through his 10-5 run as a starter in New England. If they don’t, the Cowboys offensive line will bulldoze them over. Football bettors around the globe should be very grateful that Williams fell down AND Harris took it to the house setting up a juicy spread and Money Line:
Selection: Dallas Cowboys + 5.0/Dallas Cowboys @ 9/5
Another place we found something we liked was in Jolly Old England, where the (should be) 2-5 Detroit Lions take on the 2-5 KC Chiefs. Kansas City is experiencing a brutal season this year after losing their best player on offence, Jamaal Charles, for the entire season with a torn ACL. Free agent acquisition Jeremy Maclin has been dealing with a head injury however he has but one TD reception all year. Detroit had Seattle beaten when the officials did not know the rules earlier in the year to drop to 0-4 and lost more than the game when free agent Tyrunn Walker, signed in tandem with Ngata to replace Suh and Fairley, pulled up lame with an ankle and was placed on the season-ending IR list.
8/5 Detroit Lions +3.5 @ 5/9 KC Chiefs -3.5 at Wembley
The Lions have suffered devastating losses on defence but OC Lombardi got the axe when last week when, during a winnable game over Minnesota at home and leading at the half, the Lions failed to score a single point in the second half. In what must have been an abysmal game to watch, the Lions went three and out several times gaining negative three, negative nine and negative eleven yards on three second half drives to go with a pair of positive eight yards, finally drove it 88 yards only to turn it over on downs, while Teddy Wobblyballs and the Vikings clubbed the Lions to death with five (5) Field Goals. If old man Henry Ford owned this team he would have had Lombardi shot. The Lions made the playoffs last year and a 1-6 record is simply not acceptable.
KC has Alex Smith as their Quarterback and as such need to play exceptional defence and run the ball efficiently on offense. The Chiefs started out with a very tough schedule, losing to three (3) of the five (5) remaining teams unbeaten thus far and then losing Charles for the season. They have lost two (2) of the three (3) games since with their lone win coming against Pittsburgh’s third string QB Landry Jones in his first ever start who added a fumble on top of his two interceptions. This game is between two very bad, banged up teams with some very good players still standing, KC on defence and Detroit on offence. We are expecting a Dan Campbell like bounce from the Lions this week and, given how bad both teams have played, expect it to be a close, low scoring affair where having three and a half (3.5) points in your back pocket is a very good thing indeed.
Selection: Detroit Lions + 3.5
And finally, on Sunday night, the Packers travel to Denver, a very weird place to play. Watching the Patriots go out there in late January of 2014 and get whupped by Peyton Manning was kind of surreal, as if the sum did not correspond to the parts. This game could be very much like that
4/6 Green Bay Packers -3.0 @ 13/10 Denver Broncos +3.0
Green Bay lost the best WR in the league when Jordy Nelson went down (imagine a team with Nelson, Riley Cooper, Edleman and Gronk with Brady as QB) for the season with a torn ACL and at some point the Packers are going to feel that. Although the Packers are 6-0 all was not well in CheeseHeadLand before the Packers had their Bye Week. It was looking for all the world like San Diego was going to take the Packers into overtime at Lambeau for the first time since last season’s NFC Championship (and we all know how well THAT went) when San Diego ran out of gas on the Packer three yard line with 20 seconds left after Rivers spotted Danny Woodhead one second too late. This was not the NFC’s best challenger however, it was a 2-5 San Diego team that has lost to Teddy Wobblyballs, Mike Vick and the Raiders while needing a near-miracle comeback to beat fellow 2-5er Cleveland.
Peyton Manning meanwhile has been dreadful for Denver this year where the defence has been saving the day but looking at the cast of characters (including Teddy Wobblyballs) that the Broncos have beaten we would have to say that the Raiders were the best of a bad lot. Curiously, Denver is also coming off of their Bye Week. We are not sure how much good the week of will do Rodgers however we are pretty certain that it will have done old man Peyton a world of good. We do not like the Bronco’s coaches at all and do not think Denver has much of a chance come play-off time however Green Bay has won four (4) games at home while Denver has won four (4) road games. So for this game at this point in time we are inclined to go with Denver and think that getting the three (3.0) points is an absolute bonus.
Selection: Denver Broncos + 3.0
5/13 Arizona Cardinals – 6.0 @ 11/5 Cleveland Browns +6.0
We never have and still do not think much of Carson Palmer meanwhile the Browns will be starting either a bashed in Josh McCown or a drinkin’ agin Johnny Football…
Selection: None
20/21 Cincinnati Bengals + 1.0 @ 20/23 Pittsburgh Steelers -1.0
We are not sure if Andy Dalton is for real as Rex Ryan’s sub 0.500 Bills are the best team the Bengals have beaten while there is no way of knowing how effective Ben Roethlisberger is going to be. Impossible to call.
Selection: None
11/4 Tampa Bay Bucs + 7.0 @ 2/7 Atlanta Falcons -7.0
Plenty of cause for concern with a Falcons team that lost to New Orleans and then beat the worst team in the league 10-7 last out. Tampa is terrible but they have won a game and Winston has posted passer ratings of 120+ his last two starts. This one is far from a gimmie for the Falcons.
Selection: None
17/10 San Diego Chargers + 3.5 @ 1/2 Baltimore Ravens – 3.5
Rivers has passed for 300+ yards for the past three weeks and could pass for 500 here. Problem is, San Diego lost every one of those games. In Baltimore, the Ravens have yet to win a game (although they did win once this year in Pittsburgh after the Steelers missed a couple of Field Goals, either of which would have iced the game for them). No way the Ravens should be these odds but the Chargers can’t seem to put together a win.
Selection: None
17/10 Tennessee Titans + 3.5 @ 1/2 Houston Texans – 3.5
The Titans are coming off four (4) straight home losses while the Texans just got steamrollered by Miami. Hoyer has been hot-and-cold and with both Clowney and Watt on the injury report Houston is too risky at these odds.
Selection: None
6/4 New York Giants +3.0 @ 10/17 New Orleans Saints -3.0
The Giants are 4-3 and sit atop the NFC East but get no respect for that as the 3-4 Saints are 10/17 favorites. After watching the Giants get pummelled by the Eagles then needing a kickoff return for a touchdown to beat Matt Cassel in his first start for Dallas without nearly enough prep time it is hard to back the Giants yet betting on a Rob Ryan defence is not a skilful move either.
Selection: None
3/1 San Francisco 49ers + 8.0 @ 1/4 St Louis Rams – 8.0
We have already burned as much money as we care to on Colin Kaepernick this season whereas we are unwilling to bet on a Jeff Fisher coached team unless we are getting 5/2 or better.
Selection: None
5/6 Minnesota Vikings – 1.0 @ 1/1 Chicago Bears +1.0
We have written all we need to about Teddy Wobblyballs and actually like the Bears (as a mental bet) but would never bet any real money on Jay Cutler again at less than, you guessed it, 5/2.
Selection: None
20/29 New York Jets – 3.0 @ 5/4 Oakland Raiders + 3.0
Not sure if the line has moved on this game or if we have changed our perspective on it. It appears that there is a mis-perception that the Jets were actually in the game against the Patriots, especially after they recovered an on-side kick however the Jets were down two scores with 1:13 remaining and managed a garbage time 55 yard field goal which the Patriots were more than willing to concede. The Raiders on the other hand have a nice win over the hard luck Chargers in their rear view mirror after holding their own in Denver. Apart from a surprise loss to the Bears when Oakland was expecting Clausen and got Cutler the Raiders have only lost to teams as yet unbeaten. The same cannot be said for the Jets who, last time I checked, still had Fitzpatrick at Quarterback and have as yet not beaten a team at 0.500 or better. The Raiders are at home and getting points, a nice combination if you can get it. Good for you for reading all the way down!
Selection: Oakland Raiders @ 5/4/Oakland Raiders + 3.0
5/2 Indianapolis Colts + 6.5 @ 1/3 Carolina Panthers – 6.5
Much has been made of Carolina winning in Seattle but the reality is that the 1-6 Detroit Lions also beat the Seahawks, even if it doesn’t show in the standings, and the Seahawks are a 2-5 team. The rest of the Panthers wins have come against the dregs of this season. The Colts had two (2) nice games in a row, one a loss to the Patriots and the other a win over Houston in games which they did not turn the ball over. Last week, three (3) turnovers did them in against the Saints. The Colts probably are the play here at 5/2 but we cannot pick them. You are going to have to do that yourself.
Selection: None
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