The NFL in the Moment Week Twelve II 2015

Week Twelve 2015 II kicks off at 1:00 pm this afternoon with some interesting games on tap throughout the day. We should get a better idea of how good Mike Zimmer's "D" actually is down in Atlanta, whether Kirk Cousins is developing as much as we think he is in Washington, whether the Saints defence still resembles Swiss Cheese, if Todd Gurley can run through the Bengals defence without much aerial support, how far Lovey Smith has brought the Tampa Defence and what his QB (Famous Jameis) can do against a team like Indianapolis, if the Raiders can pull out of their three (3) in Nashville and whether Buffalo can compete with Kansas City while missing both Williams (Kyle and Mario) from the defensive line all before 4:30 pm.

In the later games, Arizona is odds-on to put away the 49ers (but you never know with absolute certainty so stay away) however Carson Palmer is overdue to plummet back to earth, and the Steelers launch their playoff bid out in Seattle where the weather is supposed to be good and Ben Roethlisberger is supposed to be healthy. And finally, in the Sunday Nighter, the Patriots take on the Broncos sans Peyton Manning where both teams are relatively equal on defence (adjusted for garbage time yards) hence with Osweiler making his second lifetime start while Brady looks to improve his record against the Broncos to 6-5, New England has the edge both at Quarterback and Head Coach. We could get any kind of game. Good Luck!

Sunday’s Games

17/10 Miami Dolphins + 4.0 at 1/2 New York Jets – 4.0

The spread has shifted as Miami has been drawing little support. Talent wise, these coaches are pretty close however rumour has it that Dan Campbell's Rah, Rah, Rah approach just isn't working with the Dolphins anymore. The Dolphins problems start with GM Dennis Hickey, the man who traded a first and fourth round pick so Revis could finish rehabbing his ACL in Tampa before winning a Super Bowl with New England and who hired the ill-fated Greg Schiano. The current Dolphin roster does not equal the sum of its parts and Ryan Tannehill, part of the "Mobile Quarterback Movement", certainly is not capable of carrying this team on his back. Last year New York won in Miami and Miami won in New York and that could happen again as the situation in New York really isn't much better. Both teams have mediocre Quarterbacks, with the Jet's Ryan Fitzpatrick having never compiled a winning record in his nine years as an off and on starting QB (neither has Tannehill) and the Jets record doesn't add up with their talent elsewhere as the result.

Selection: None

23/20 Minnesota Vikings + 2.5 at 20/27 Atlanta Falcons – 2.5

The spread on this game has moved down on the Falcons a full 1.0 points as even more money has poured in on Atlanta. The move is difficult to understand as the Falcon's lone with in their past five (5) games was over the worst team in the league while being coached by likely the worst Head Coach in the league at that time, Ken Wisenhunt. Mike Zimmer has made all the right moves save one, getting himself a Quarterback who can win games for him, but has put together a good defence with a good scheme that couldn’t keep the Packers from winning but faces a somewhat easier task here. The Minnesota offence is still only Adrian Peterson as QB Bridgewater is terrible, but All Day should be enough. Seeing Carolina at 11-0 should help you to see that there wasn’t a whole lot of merit in Atlanta’s 6-1 start and they come into this game coming off losses to a bad 49ers team and an equally bad Colts squad. Minnesota’s schedule hasn’t been the toughest either but if you ignore opening week (and you should) they were the last team to beat the Chiefs and have only lost to Green Bay and Denver since that first week. Surprisingly (to us), the Falcons took the money early as well. With Chicago and Detroit suddenly on fire (collectively 6-2 the past four [4] weeks against playoff opposition and good teams) and the Vikings currently in first place, Minnesota cannot afford any losses against beatable teams like this.

Selection: Minnesota Vikings + 2.5/Minnesota Vikings @ 23/20

20/27 New York Giants – 2.5 at 23/20 Washington Redskins + 2.5

The Giants always play New England tough. Their own division, not so much. We were pretty impressed with Cousins in New England, which played out in New Orleans and, believe it or not, the first half of the Panthers game, and think that he is already almost the best Quarterback in the NFC East and will be the best sooner than most think. Of course, that may be because we find the other guy in Washington so detestable. The Giants bring back WR Hicks which should be just enough of a distraction for Manning. If he and his mates play like they did last week, forget about it. They won’t. It is a curious fact that since the season of the Tyree incident, the Giants have only made the playoff after 6-2 or better starts. This game has huge ramifications for Washington if they end up tied with the Giants for the division. If the Redskins win, the season series will end up 1-1 and Washington will be 2-1 in the NFC East while the Giants will drop to 2-3. Washington is 4-1 at home this season while the Giants are 2-3 on the road.

Selection: Washington Redskins + 2.5/Washington Redskins @ 23/20

29/20 New Orleans Saints + 3.0 at 20/33 Houston Texans – 3.0

This game has had a bit of money going on the Texans causing a slight change in the money line while the spread has held firm. So New Orleans finally fired Rob Ryan and who do they bring in? Dennis Allen, picked off the Raiders scrap heap, formerly a part of John’s Fox’s staff (as DC) during the Year of Tebow in Denver. We won’t be surprised if Tebow has a baby watching New England shut out Osweiler this weekend when BB takes away the run and Demaryius Thomas. We digress. We do not think the Saints defence is going to improve by leaps and bounds with Allen in a week. Houston meanwhile is right back where they were last year at 5-5, but the difference is they are tied with the Colts and they have a Quarterback who is significantly better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, not that that is saying a whole lot. Brian Hoyer is slated to return this week and given the dysfunction in Cleveland Hoyer must be considerably more grounded in Houston. After watching DeAndre Hopkins burn Revis repeatedly last week, it is fair to wonder that if the Texans can get their running game going, will they be a legitimate postseason threat? Of course, Hoyer might self-destruct if it went that far but he should have a field day today.

Selection: Houston Texans – 3.0

7/4 San Diego Chargers + 4.0 at 10/21 Jacksonville Jaguars – 4.0

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. San Diego, picked by many to supplant the Broncos as Manning fell into dotage, have rewarded their backers with a meagre two (2) wins in ten (10) tries as yet another year of Philip Rivers’ career has been wasted. Watching the massive King Dunlap wobble around last week in a desperate effort to protect Rivers from Kansas City’s pass rush had to be downright disturbing to the 65,837 ??? (it didn’t look like that many) Charger faithful on hand last week. Remember that this is pretty much the same Chargers team that knocked themselves out of the playoffs last year with a horrible 37-0 loss to the Dolphins in Florida. Despite all that, Jacksonville is not very appealing at 10/21 or giving 4.0 points so the Chargers would be the play for a gambler type. We would like San Diego at 5/2 but 7/4 is not a high enough return given the risk.

Selection: None

13/4 St. Louis Rams + 9.0 at 2/9 Cincinnati Bengals – 9.0

Keenum is out, the spread has gone up for St. Louis, Jeff Fisher has once again been singled out for being an idiot and Nick Foles is back in the driver's seat for the Rams. In Cincinnati, Marvin Lewis has a job in his hands developing a game plan that negates the Rams pass rush. Last week, Rams Rookie Defensive End Matt Longacre was rushing Flacco (just after the Keenum incident) and when Flacco’s 300 lb Left Tackle James Hurst let go of the hold he had on 240 lb Longacre he fell backwards and took out Joe Flacco’s ACL and MCL. Bengals Quarterback Andy Dalton pulled his el disappearo act when JJ Watt and friends visited (Passer Rating 61.0) two weeks ago and it won’t be any better this Sunday as the Rams limited Flacco (Passer Rating 70.0) before knocking him out of the game, especially if starting Defensive End Robert Quinn returns. This game is not the cakewalk for the Bengals that everyone is anticipating but betting of Jeff Fisher's team is not a pass time for the faint of heart.

Selection: St. Louis Rams @ 13/4 but only for a little 

13/10 Tampa Bay Bucs + 3.0 at 4/6 Indianapolis Colts – 3.0

We never “bought-in” on Andrew Luck while the league was attempting to turn him into a superstar so we are not surprised that the Colts are, if anything, playing better with journeyman Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck under center. Rookie, Jameis Winston could be a big part of Lovie Smith’s turnaround in Tampa Bay which has the Bucs in the hunt for an NFC Wildcard at 5-5 after winning three (3) of their last four (4) contests. Hasselbeck has been aided greatly by catching teams at the right time on the way to a 3-0 record however the curtain got peeled back a bit last week when the game in Atlanta turned into a comedy of errors where fumble recoveries were offset by interceptions and so on all around. Tampa meanwhile is on a roll beating backup Quarterbacks Cassel and Sanchez in their last two (2) games with Hasselback on deck. Winston is a rookie and Smith’s defence does have some holes but is playing very well, and the Colts appear destined for a nowhere season in what is likely Chuck Pagano’s swan song season. Go easy

Selection: Tampa Bay Bucs + 3.0 /Tampa Bay Bucs @ 13/10

20/23 Oakland Raiders – 1.0 at 20/21 Tennessee Titans + 1.0

The Raiders have been burning a ton of money lately however, it is not their fault that they have been favored over some of the better teams. Thursday gave us an idea of just how good Caldwell has the Lions playing after installing Jim Bob Cooter to replace Joe Lombardi as Offensive Coordinator so Oakland’s loss to Detroit is not so hard to understand after getting run over the previous week by Adrian Peterson and getting beaten in overtime the week before that by Ben Roethlisberger. The Titans, on the other hand, are most probably the worst team in the league compounded by a lame duck interim head coach in Mike Mularkey. Looking at the rest of Oakland’s schedule (KC x 2, Den, GB + SD) getting to 8-8 is a pretty tall order making this a must-win game for the Raiders. While not yet Road warriors, Oakland has already won two (2) road games this year in games where they were clearly the better team like this game.

Selection: Oakland Raiders – 1.0/Oakland Raiders @ 20/23

19/10 Buffalo Bills + 5.0 at 10/23 Kansas City Chiefs -5.0

This game has seen the Money Line drop and spread shrink a full point.The Buffalo Bills, who were once everyone’s darling to challenge the Patriots this year, haven’t changed much since opening day. The Bills will finish 8-8 or the same as last year (9-7) while KC has a slightly easier schedule and could finish as high as 10-6 so what we have here are two teams, essentially equal, with home field advantage going to the Chiefs. After being overbet in games earlier this year, Buffalo is now under bet for this contest, even with today's (Sunday's) movement in the line (Fair Value s/b 33/20 and + 3.5 points). Don’t bet much!

Selection: Buffalo Bills + 5.0 /Buffalo Bills @ 19/10

1/5 Arizona Cardinals – 10.0 at 7/2 San Francisco 49ers + 10.0

There is no particular reason Arizona should stumble here, but 10.0 points are a lot to give on the road. San Francisco was only a field goal away from covering a big spread in Seattle last week. We may even get to see former SC Gamecock Quarterback Dylan Thompson in this game. A very good game to stay far away from as you won't get rich betting 1/5 shots.

Selection: None

33/20 Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5 at 10/19 Seattle Seahawks – 3.5

Wow, that 4.5 points sure disappeared fast as after opening this game up a lot of money went on the Steelers. We thought we would see this spread going down to 2.5 points by Sunday, but it has held. Pittsburgh seems to have an unlimited supply of good linebackers that can stop the run, help out in coverage and rush the passer as required. The Steelers cannot lose before being “on to Cincinnati” in a fortnight if they are going to have any real hope of capturing a division title which, given the situation in Denver and the state of the AFC South will most probably also capture the second Playoff Bye, a completely different animal from a Wild Card. We find ourselves unable to take Seattle seriously without Marshawn Lynch. They may have beaten San Francisco, but they are playing with the big kids here. Much like last week’s Green Bay +1.0 at Minnesota, this too is almost like stealing as Seattle has only covered the spread 3 times this season.

Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5/ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 33/20

4/6 New England Patriots - 3.0 at 13/0 Denver Broncos – 7.0

We won’t be surprised if Tebow has a baby watching New England shut out Osweiler this weekend when BB takes away the run and Demaryius Thomas. People go on and on (and on) about Denver’s defence however the Patriots have the lead in the most important category, that is Top Scoring Defence, and once you adjust both teams for Yards Against for garbage time to date this season, they end up within five (5) yards of each other. On Offence, it is a much different story however, as New England has scored an average of 33.6 Points Per Game while Denver has scored an average of 22.2 Points Per Game and with Manning out last week Osweiler could only manage to put up 17 against 25th ranked Chicago last week. Meanwhile, Back in Boston, New England has run out of wide receivers. After watching the transaction wire all week and seeing no activity, we expect to see LaFell, Harper and perhaps Slater on occasion out there with White lined up in the four (4) WR sets. On the other side, Kubiak is giving Osweiler his second start, the difference is that this week it is against the best coach in the league leading the presently unbeaten champions in an all-out drive towards the playoffs who is 8-1 against QB's in their first two starts. Belichick moved yet another tight end to the active roster this week so don't be surprised if we see a five (5) tight end set at some point.

Selection: New England Patriots – 3.0/ New England Patriots @ 4/6

29/20 Baltimore Ravens + 3.0 at 20/33 Cleveland Browns – 3.0

You know that we are at the place in the schedule which determines the playoff configuration when games like this come up. While neither team is mathematically eliminated from the post-season picture, the chances of them getting there are extremely remote. Matt Schaub is left in Baltimore along with sundry detritus thanks to Kubiak last year while the backup Baltimore drafted, Tyrod Taylor, has been starting for Buffalo all year for less than half of what Schaub cost the Ravens this past offseason. The Browns meanwhile continue to grapple with Manziel’s reputed alcoholism and pulled the starting gig from Johnny after photos of him celebrating his promotion to starting Quarterback surfaced to return Josh McCown to playing under center. The Browns are still the Browns. It would not be wise to wager on this one either way.

Selection: None