NFL 2016 Post Draft Preview

NFC East

The Washington Redskins won the division last season but flamed out in the first round against the Packers after several first-half mistakes set up a dreadful second half however are expected to fare better this season with an improved roster. The rest of the division was dreadful resulting in the Eagles and Giants firing their coaches and the Cowboys bringing up the rear where Jerrah could hardly fire himself.

reasonThe Dallas Cowboys were absolutely horrible last season. With their vaunted Offensive Line, they should have protected Cassel admirably, had a solid running game and connected on a lot of play-action, which is Cassel’s best thing. None of those things happened and Dez Bryant was atrocious. The 17/10 Cowboys have attracted the early money for some obscure reason(s) as they already appear to be in disarray. The Cowboy’s draft was even harder to understand proving that Jerrah’s best days are well behind him and underscoring the need for a real GM in Dallas.

Much has been made of the fact that an NFC East Division Winner has not repeated for many years, however, the odds against that are extremely high and there is no reason to expect it to continue. Another incorrect view is that in 2014 Dallas went 12-4 and Dez Bryant’s non-catch cost them the chance to win it all. In the first place, it wasn’t a catch. In the second place, New England would have annihilated them had they gotten that far, which is doubtful.

Tony Romo is now 36 years old and has had multiple back and other surgeries. The strength of the Eagles and Giants defence is expected to be the pass rush. After seeing the defences that Redskin’s GM Scot McCloughan left behind in San Fran and then Seattle it is hard to imagine that Romo will be having any picnics during the Washington Games either, or the four [4] AFC North games for that matter. It will be year two for John Fox’s Bears Defence and year three for Mike Zimmer’s Vikings Defence in the NFC North so the Cowboys are looking at a potentially rough 2016 schedule. Romo has not finished out the season for the bulk of his career and that is not likely to get better at 36 years old.

The 5/2 New York Giants could have hit on the lottery with all of their offseason gambles and Eli Manning can go on a playoff run at any time but it isn’t likely. Their defence is too suspect this early. Janoris Jenkins wasn’t even the best cornerback the Rams had last year, Olivier Vernon had a great eight [8] games to finish out his Rookie Contract although how much that had to do with teams over-compensating for Suh is anyone’s guess, and Damon Harrison is now 27 which is not normally thought to be old however when a guy’s nickname is Big Snacks and he is over 350 pounds and then gets a signing bonus for more than double what he made during his first four [4] years in the league one wonders if he will backslide.

Something else to note is that all three of the Giants Big Three Free Agents were replaced by the team that surrendered them for roughly half the cost. Coty Sensabaugh replaced Jenkins with the Rams but the Titans have been so dreadful and Jeff Fisher is such an idiot that it is hard to tell if that was a good move. Certainly, franchising Trumaine Johnson instead of Jenkins was a good move on the Rams part. In Miami, Mario Williams joins Suh and Wake on the Dolphins Defensive Line to replace Vernon while the Jets had Leonard Williams primed to replace Harrison after he fell to the Jets in the 2015 draft.

Eli Manning is a Money Quarterback to be certain, the sole reason why Tom Brady doesn’t have six [6] Rings, but he has not shown the ability to carry a team through the entire 16 game schedule making him the exact opposite of brother Peyton. How many times have we seen a team spend a fortune on free agents in the off-season only to have one that looked a lot better on paper in the summer than they did in the fall during the season? Even if the Giant’s new Defensive Line does work out, it is going to take some time for it to gel. With the difficult schedule, the Giants face this season (AFC and NFC North plus Saints and Rams) coupled with the anticipated slow start it is hard to see them dominating the division this season.

The 10/3 Washington Redskins came on strong mainly because Kirk Cousins finally got enough starts to become an NFL caliber Quarterback and finished fifth in passer rating. On thing that no one seems to be talking about is the Redskins hired Magic Man Scot McCloughan before last year’s draft so by the time the season starts about half the roster will have been turned over by him. The Redskins will be fantastic in 2018 (just look at what McCloughan did in San Fran and then Seattle) but they aren’t bad right now. 

Why? Well with Jay Gruden they got his brother Jon too. Jon was not going to let his little brother fail. Jay hired Jon’s DC Joe Barry who had the defence playing at a pretty high level in 2015 without a lot of key parts. They may have overpaid for Josh Norman but they also signed a few under-the-radar guys on Defence (Bruton/Reyes/Garvin/Toler) custom fit as depth for Barry’s scheme. There are also 16 of Scot McCloughan’s draft picks (8 Offence/8 Defence) likely to be on the 53-man Roster. With Kirk Cousins having come into his own last season, an evolving Offensive Line and a bevy of Pass Catchers at Wide Receiver and Tight End the Offence looks to be one of the best in the NFC.

It will be interesting to see what McCloughan and Joe Barry have planned for the defensive line in 2016. They have half a dozen 300-pounders on the roster listed as Defensive Tackles and another six closer to 250 than 300 pounds listed as Defensive Ends. Matthew Ioannidis, drafted in the 5th round this year, is one of the 300-pounders listed at DT who could be any kind after having a quality week at the Senior Bowl. It looks like the Redskins are going to play light and fast on defence, rushing the passer while locking down the corners. How they will be stuffing the run remains to be seen.

Finally, Dan Snyder may have learned his lesson with the Robert Griffin/Mike Shanahan fiasco, although the Josh Norman signing looks to have his fingerprints all over it, and has stopped playing GM. Even without Scot McCloughan this team was headed for a Super Bowl soon in the relatively weak NFC but with him they are going to give the Patriots a run for it as the best team in the league with the team suffering the fewest key injuries the correct Super Bowl favorite going into January.

The 7/2 Eagles roster is a wreck with GM Roseman more interested in jettisoning Chip Kelly’s boys than winning it seems perhaps illustrated best by giving away a player like Kiko Alonzo with such a huge upside. Bringing in Leodis McKelvin and Rueben Randle will help the Eagles, but to what end? The Eagles have made a lot of noise about locking down core players but have (already) adopted the “We’re not sure we can make the playoffs (with the mess Chip Kelly left us)” mentality which may make for a long, cold, lonely winter in the City of Brotherly Love.

Selection: Washington Redskins @ 10/3

NFC North

The NFC North has been owned by the Packers of late with 2008 being the last time they missed the playoffs and who just missed the Divisional Round last season suffering a tough overtime loss to Arizona and fields pretty much the same team this season. Last season the Vikings managed to win the division but were out in the first round and enter 2016 with their strong points improved. Chicago actually improved to 6-10 last year despite being gutted in John Fox’s first year and field a much better-looking roster this year while the Lions finished 2015 at 7-9 but come into the 2016 season without Calvin Johnson for the first time in Stafford’s career.

The 8/13 Green Bay Packers have not been able to stop the run for years (since AJ Hawk was a force in maybe 2011?) and have done nothing so far to address that which keeps the ball out of Rodgers’s hands if nothing else. Clay Matthews is moving back to his natural OLB position as without him Peppers gets doubled and tripled. Jordy Nelson is coming off an ACL and it is doubtful that he will regain being the top WR in the league, at least for the first half of the season. Maybe the kids will be alright but better to wait and see. Green Bay’s staff is weak compared to the heavy hitting staffs of teams like New England which is why Aaron Rodgers only has one ring.

The Packers stated in no uncertain terms that they were not going back to the future by having James Jones and Greg Jennings return and were instead going with Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jeff Janis and some more young guys but that will leave them short if either Jordy Nelson becomes ineffective after his surgery or Cobb gets hurt. Jones was the Packers leading receiver last season in what the Packers hope was an “off” year for Rodgers. The Packers get the Seahawks and Falcons as their swing games which could end up being tougher games than what last year’s NFC North Division Winner’s Minnesota’s games against Arizona and Carolina depending on how things go in 2016.

An interesting thing we noticed when Green Bay blew the NFC Championship in 2014 from Rodgers’ post-game comments was that he is not allowed to change a play from a run to a pass at the line unlike other elite Quarterbacks like Tom Brady. McCarthy has reclaimed the play calling so we can expect more of the same in that regard. On the other side of the ball, Dom Capers is severely challenged as a Defensive Coordinator. Going back to that same game, Capers’ decision to rush two [2] and thereby give Wilson all day to find an open receiver was a sign of a systemic problem. Unless the Packer Offence is overwhelming their Achilles heel (Capers) will get them every time.

The 2/1 Minnesota Vikings have won two [2] games against winning teams, KC in a five-game losing streak and a fading Packers team for the title last season with Bridgewater and are unlikely to do anything until he is replaced. It is bizarre that GM Speilman went to the wall with Ponder and then threw him over the side just when he started to “get it”. Adrian Peterson can again carry them to the playoffs but he is 31 this year. Another 1,500+/- yard season puts him 7th all-time and there is a reason why – It is really hard to get to 13,000 yards. Peterson is special and could catch Emmitt Smith but he won’t lead the league more than once or twice more.

The Vikings defence played very well last season and with Zimmer’s background, the defence should improve even more this season.  Free Agent and former Bengal (Zimmer came from being the Bengals Defensive Coordinator) Emmanuel Lamur rounds out an already very good front seven.  Free Agent Guard Alex Boone was brought in to improve the Vikings run blocking for Adrian Peterson while Andre Smith, another former Bengal, was brought in as an Offensive Tackle but there is no indication that disappointment Matt Kalil (Left Tackle) is going to be replaced.

There is no getting around the fact that Teddy Bridgewater is not an NFL caliber Quarterback, which in a way lessens the impact of Kalil’s shortcomings. It looks like Peterson to the strong side will be the mainstay of the Vikings Offence which, while not a bad thing of itself, coupled with a weak Defensive Secondary makes the Vikings going deep into the playoffs extremely unlikely. In fact, if no rookie Quarterback cracks a starting lineup, Bridgewater will most likely be the worst Quarterback in the league this season.

John Fox suffered a tough season last year, however, has now brought in enough new guys on defence for the 11/1 Chicago Bears to start getting it together. Jay Cutler is finally fulfilling his promise putting up his highest passer rating (92.3) last season while putting up only 11 Int’s and cutting his sacks by 10. Brian Hoyer will get at least one start (Cutler always misses at least one) and could very easily out-perform Josh McCown as a pinch hitter. 

It cannot be stressed too much that Fox has built a run-stuffing pass-rushing front seven in an effort to swallow the Vikings, minimize Eddie Lacy’s efforts and force Rodgers to make every drive count. The linebackers should be much better (there could be as many as four [4] new ones on the field at times) and the secondary has the potential to be better. Overall, the Bears Defence looks like it will be much better in 2016 as it evolves.

The Offensive Line, which was terrible in 2014, got better last season and has the potential to be pretty good this season. Free Agent Bobbie Massie will be getting $6 million to join it while 2014 seventh-round pick Charles Leno may develop into a solid Left Tackle for the Bears. It remains to be seen if the Bears new running back “committee” can power run successfully after years of Forte’s finesse but with the favored teams having serious weaknesses, and the Bears being 11/1, we have to go with the price.

In Detroit, the 12/1 Lions are saying that Golden Tate is going to replace Calvin Johnson? We don’t think so. Matt Stafford has been over-rated since coming into the league, with Calvin making him look much better than he was. It looks like Jim Caldwell is the real thing as a coach after getting hamstrung by the Evil Jim Irsay his last HC gig and Detroit's new Offensive Line may allow Ridley to regain his form in his second year after ACL surgery. The Lions finished last season 6-2 after a lousy start compounded by the officials blowing the Seattle game and round out the most balanced division in the league, although you would never know it by the odds.

Woof-Woof-Go Selection: Chicago Bears @ 11/1

NFC South

The league’s weakest division hasn’t done much to change that. It is ironic that the most wide-open division in the league has the shortest price favorite (Carolina is 9/20, slightly less than New England’s 1/2). It takes a lot of time and energy to detail each team's progress and we expect the NFC South to be the worst in the league by quite a bit hence we will not be spending a lot of time on it. We have no idea which team it makes sense to bet on to win the division but would go with Atlanta or New Orleans if forced to choose. 

9/20 Carolina had to be the worst 15-1 team in the history of the league. In their arrogance, they signed no free agents and spent three of their five draft picks on the CB position in an effort to replace Norman etc. If you like the Panthers, you will have to look elsewhere. A losing record is a possibility.

Dan Quinn/GM Thomas Dimitroff in Atlanta has brought in veteran help on the Offensive Line and on Defence along with young guys to replace Roddy White. It could work. The 11/2 Falcons split with the Panthers last year and meet Green Bay and Philadelphia for their make up games against Minnesota and Washington for Carolina.

The 6/1 Tampa Bay Bucs will be better, but how much? It looks like Jameis Winston will turn out to be the best Black Quarterback since McNabb but who knows if/when his personal life will submarine his career but is unlikely to rival Drew Brees just yet. Patriots Alumnus Jason Licht seems to be tentative at GM and Head Coach Dirk Koetter is an unknown as a head coach but worked with DC Mike Smith in Atlanta. They have brought in four [4] new corners for the season (two [2] Free Agents and two [2] Draft picks) and have tried to shore up what was a terrible Offensive Line to get their running game going. We are guessing they are a year (at least) away., when Winston will be much better after another 16 starts barring a calamity.

7/1 New Orleans got rid of Rob Ryan (Dennis Allen takes over), brought back Harper and drafted Sheldon Rankins (12th overall, top DT) to anchor what looks to be a pretty solid 3-4 Defence that will be able to at least take away the run (they better be able to after spending $13mm at ILB to go with Rankins). You know that Sean Payton will have Drew Brees primed to lead the league (again) especially with Brady likely to only play 12 games. With makeup games against the Giants (early) and the Lions the Saints could be the play at 7/1 but there are better divisions to bet on.

Selection: None

NFC West

The division that had two Scot McCloughan built teams (San Fran and Seattle) battling it out for a few years while Arizona got better playing catch-up has fallen back as those two teams have now scattered in the wind. It is funny to hear the “experts” pontificate about Harbaugh as in reality he merely hastened the 49ers demise. Taking Aldon Smith over JJ Watt started a regression that bottomed out last year. The Rams were really on the verge of something before their collective heads exploded and they traded a boatload of draft picks for 14-23 NCAA QB Jared Goff.

8/11 Seattle is re-grouping this year, with Pete Carroll trying to fix his Offensive Line, and has brought back Brandon Browner at CB2. Last season Browner was in a terrible defence under Rob Ryan and then was hurt but kept playing. For too often the safety was nowhere to be found leaving Browner on an island hanging on for dear life and taking a ton of penalties, many of which were bad calls. 

The Seahawks have taken a shot at maintaining a four-man pressure package with linebacker blitzes, while the corners lock down the receivers for the opposing Quarterback’s first set of reads, by which time the pressure is supposed to get there. They had it working great in 2014 but too many guys wanted to get paid and they needed to re-stock. We don’t expect that they have fully succeeded. 

On Offence, Seattle has had very little beyond Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson scrambles. Carrol has rebuilt the Offensive Line in the hopes of getting a power-running game going with some new kids. Seattle’s passing game meanwhile will be dependent upon Jimmy Graham and their cast of no-name. It will be interesting to see how successful they are but teams have now pretty much figured out Russell Wilson, who despite his gaudy numbers would have finished at 9-7 last season had the officials not blown the Detroit game.

6/4 Arizona, last year’s division winner, was a Quarterback away from going to the Super Bowl last season. They did not change much in the offseason as they have a very nice team and are trying to keep it together. The NFC’s version of the Bengals will probably have a good regular season unless Palmer falls apart at age 37 as they become very ordinary with Drew Stanton under center.

On Offence, the Cardinals shipped Guard Jonathan Cooper and their second round draft pick to the Patriots and signed 34-year-old Evan Mathis from Denver to replace him. The lost their starting Right Tackle Bobbie Massie to the Bears in Free Agency with presumably 2015 first round pick D.J. Humphries slated to replace him.

On Defence, Arizona received Defensive End Chandler Jones from New England in the Cooper trade and drafted Defensive Tackle Robert Nkemdiche in the first round while losing half-a-dozen depth defenders in Free Agency. The Cardinals enter 2016 with pretty much the same team they had last season when Carson Palmer choked in the NFC Championship. If a team is not moving ahead, it is falling behind.

The 9/1 LA Rams were oh so close. Going into the draft with a whack of picks and a Case Keenum who had turned the corner and was at last ready to be a prime-time NFL Quarterback and then Jeff Fisher threw it all away to draft Jared Goff. Keenum holds all of the NCAA records yet LA takes Goff presumably because he set some Cal records, Aaron Rodgers former school. Goff played on a 1-11 team his first year, threw about 7 TDs against Grambling State etc. The official story after OTA’s is that the Rams were planning on starting Keenum all along, allowing Goff to develop. Oh, what could have been had they used those draft picks. They could have traded up for Tunsil…

On defence the Rams lost Janoris Jenkins, replacing him with Coty Sensabaugh, in Free Agency and Free Safety Rodney McLeod as well as some depth players including Chris Long. They also signed Free Agent Outside Linebacker Quinton Coples from Miami. Their core front seven, one of the best, remains intact and it will be interesting to see what they get out of former Patriot 2014 first round pick Easley whom they signed for the minimum.

On Offence, LA lost Tight End Jared Cook while drafting a couple of Tight Ends in the second and fourth rounds. The Rams Offensive Line continues to have more questions than answers which won't help Running Back Todd Gurley, who should be even better in year two post-ACL, or incumbent Quarterback Case Keenum. The Rams have about ten rookie Wide Receivers trying out and could get lucky there. Free Agents like James Jones and Greg Jennings also remain unsigned so it will be interesting to see say mid-August if LA signs any more veterans. Keenum will need to at least be 4-3, even better 5-2 (which is possible) when the Rams hit their Bye Week to keep his job.

Chip Kelly brings his show to San Francisco where he has to ask Trent Balke (very nicely) for the players he wants. The 25/1 Fortyniners have made strides to once more have a great offensive line that will allow them to run the ball. Interestingly, when Kaepernick was asking for a trade Kelly brought in my favorite Black Quarterback (Thad Lewis) who may be the best fit for Kelly’s Offence, especially with Kaepernick looking like an anorexic in camp. With the entire division playing the tough AFC East and the unpredictable NFC South, if the Seahawks falter the 49ers could win 10 games and steal it.

Selection: None

Longshot: LA Rams @ 9/1

AFC West

The AFC West is wide open again with the anticipated rapid demise of the Broncos. Alex Smith in Kansas City won his division when he was in the NFC West and could finally win the AFC West. San Diego gets their offensive line back after the Year of the Injury and with Phillip Rivers hitting 34 this year his window to win it all shrinks a bit more. Meanwhile, the Raiders attracted quality free-agents again this offseason and Reggie McKenzie has, at last, constructed a team to contend.

The co-favored 19/10 Denver Broncos enter the 2016 season having lost a lot of free agents, having had Aqib Talib shoot himself (literally and in Texas of all places) and may be going forward with raw rookie Paxton Lynch as they don’t presently have a Quarterback. They will still have a pretty good defence but are paying their marquee players too much money, something that will catch up to them at some point. It may be hard to see them there this year without a Quarterback, however, a broken down Peyton Manning took them to win the Super Bowl last year.

On Defence, a few players followed former Head Coach John Fox to Chicago while others went all over the league. Denver Head Coach Kubiak, in turn, brought some of his former players from Houston although there is no question Denver suffered a net loss which could be compounded if Talib is suspended. Von Miller will likely be back (see Related Link) and overall the Broncos figure to field one of the best Defences in the league in 2016, but with less depth than previously.

As the Bronco Offence evolves into one predicated on the run, they have shuffled their Offensive Line (Clady, Mathis and Harris out, Okung and Stephenson in) and signed a ton of rookies to further this. They are weaker at Tight End also as they move to better-blocking ones as opposed to pass-catchers but their Wide Receiver Corps remains strong. Kubiak got a lot of miles out of Schaub at Quarterback in Houston and presumably figures he can get by with Sanchez until Paxton Lynch is ready after letting Osweiler go to Houston. Personally, we think Kubiak is an idiot.

The 19/10 Chiefs are the other co-favorite. They look to be weaker overall this season as they were unable to re-sign all of their own guys because of Salary Cap issues and tried to fill their needs in the draft. As their running game goes, so goes their offence with a 30-year-old Jamaal Charles trying to come back from an ACL. Alex Smith remains at Quarterback while Kevin Hogan from Stanford was drafted to take over from Chase Daniels as Smith’s backup.

They shuffled their Offensive Line (moving Fisher to the blind side and bringing in Mitchell Schwartz to replace him at Right Tackle while it looks like a Guard spot is open with the departure of Allen) mostly in Free Agency. Their running game will likely suffer, at least in the short-term, but with their underwhelming pass catchers and the ever boring Smith under center, time may have passed this core by.

Trying to keep most of their defence intact, the Chiefs re-signed Johnson and Howard but lost starting Cornerback Sean Smith and Safety Tyvon Branch while trading out of the first round to draft two Cornerbacks (Russell and Murray). The Chiefs should once again challenge for the AFC West title but won’t get any traction in the post season with this Offence.

The 11/4 Oakland Raiders come into the 2016 season with high hopes amidst a lot of hype. No longer the laughing stock of the league, another good crop of Free Agent gains has the Raiders maybe looking better than they actually are. When you consider that the Chargers seriously underachieved in 2015 due to the lack of an Offensive Line, at least one that could block anyone, the difference between their records last season was an overtime game against San Diego, an Oakland win over last place overall Tennessee, and the inexplicable folding of the Chargers when they had the Broncos beaten until a not very effective Peyton Manning joined the fray.

The Raider Defence, no slouch last season, looks to be better on paper this season. Head Coach Jack Del Rio had them playing pretty well by the end of last season and the addition of Sean Smith and Bruce Irvin, plus the potential return of Aldon Smith in November, are bound to help.

Oakland’s Offensive Line (see PFF Related Link) is being compared to the Cowboys as the league's top unit and Ladarius Webb is projected to run even better behind it than he did last year. We are expecting the cracks in Quarterback Derek Carr to start to show this season. Carr came into the league extremely well prepared however defences have a much better line on him in what is his third season.  His Passer Rating of 91.3 last season may prove to be his high water mark for a while and with makeup games against the Ravens and the Bills we expect Oakland to return to last-place, albeit at a better record than in the past.

11/2 San Diego had a lot of turnover in free agency. Strong at Offensive Tackle (when all three are healthy), they brought in some guys to play Guard to perhaps get their running game going. The Chargers look to be net winners in Free Agency overall. Snagging Joey Bosa to rush the passer is their reward for getting beaten up so bad last year although the difficulty they are having signing him could portend trouble down the road. Another reward for finishing last is makeup games against Cleveland and Miami. While any team can win any game (Miami beat them 37-0 in 2014), the other three teams in those divisions are all potential playoff teams.

Rivers is due for a big year again given his production last season with a decimated Offensive Line. Woodhead should be healthy and Melvin Gordon may yet fulfil his promise with a healthy Offensive Line. Kelvin Benjamin joins a cast of able pass catchers giving the Chargers the potential to be any kind of team this season.

San Diego’s defence figures to be average again in 2016 although Bosa may inject some life into a mediocre group that only managed 32 sacks last season. Free Agent Brandon Mebane (from Seattle) is expected to take on a leadership role, especially with the departure of Weddle, and the group could gel into a cohesive unit. The declines in Denver and Kansas City coupled with the potential two-game advantage in the makeup games could propel the Chargers to the top of the division at a very attractive price, and once in the post-season, if the team is pretty much healthy, Rivers is good enough to win it all

Selection: San Diego Chargers @ 11/2

AFC South

The AFC South looks to have made some gains on the rest of the league (as well they should with all those very high draft picks) and may have moved into sixth or seventh place from eighth this season. Last year’s division winner Houston flamed out in the playoffs when Brian Hoyer blew up 31-0 however we view the move to Brock Osweiler as a step backwards. Indianapolis is hoping for Andrew Luck to return to form and lead them out of the wilderness back into the playoffs. Jacksonville focussed on improving their defence in the draft (their first four [4] picks) and Free Agency (Malik Jackson etc.) while Tennessee brought in Demarco Murray and had a decent draft but most of all received a ton of picks from the Rams which will come in handy down the road.

The 6/5 Indianapolis Colts may be the most dubious favorite of all eight [8] divisions with the only possible reason for it being the anticipated return of Andrew Luck. Irrespective of this, the Colts have a very poor GM in Ryan Grigson and their supporting cast has not improved noticeably while the rest of the divisions has. 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck played significantly better than Luck last season and while many note Luck playing hurt his 28 picks in his last 23 games are a cause for concern. Chuck Pagano, by all accounts a decent Head Coach, seems to be paying the price for Grigson's ineptness, garnering a “Win Now” one-year contract.

On Offence, The Colts drafted some offensive linemen but only their first pick (Ryan Kelly, Alabama) looks to have the potential to have an impact in 2016. Kelly is expected to give the Colt’s running game a boost but his pass blocking in the NFL, along with the entire right side of the Colt’s Offensive Line, does not, at least yet, show any signs of improvement. While we absolutely love the signing of former New England Patriot’s Special Teams Gunners and fringe Wide Receiver Brian Tyms but as a deep ball specialist, he may never have enough time to get down the field before Luck get knocked on his butt.

On Defence, like a broken record, the Colts cannot stop the run for the third straight season. Apart from a couple of fourth round picks, Indianapolis has done nothing to improve their mediocre front seven leaving then vulnerable up-the-middle in a division that now has DeMarco Murray (Titans), Chris Ivory (Jags) and Secret Superstar (as per PFF) Lamar Miller (Hou). All three divisional opponent’s Offensive Lines are work-in-progress nevertheless if they can establish the run each game the Colts will be hard-pressed to answer and with games against the Jets, Steelers, Broncos, Vikings and perhaps even the Bears it could be Chuck Pagano’s Swan Song.

The 12/5 Houston Texans blew up in the postseason after winning the division for the first time for Bill O’Brien in his third season as Head Coach. They made headlines in the offseason for signing Brock Osweiler to 72 million dollar contract based upon a 5-2 record and a Passer Rating of 86.4 with Denver however Manning had to come in and rally the Broncos in their win over San Diego and the officials had to intervene in the overtime win over the Patriots (they refused to allow New England to get first downs in the fourth quarter). By comparison, Case Keenum is also 5-2 in his past seven starts (two of those wins were in Houston) will similar numbers. Hopefully, Keenum will start for the Rams and we can see what happens this year.

On Offence, the Texans drafted ND Center Nick Martin and signed Free Agent Tony Bergstrom to replace the departed Ben Jones, also adding Guard Jeff Allen in Free Agency. They hope Lamar Miller can be their bell-cow running back who can take pressure off very expensive Free Agent Quarterback Brock Osweiler. We believe Osweiler to be a bad gamble on the Texan’s part as O’Brien has shown a poor ability to evaluate NFL Quarterbacks thus far (dumping Case Keenum, starting Ryan Mallett over Hoyer etc.) and, we wonder why he did not instead draft his Penn State protégé, Christian Hackenberg.

Of Defence, the Texans are one of the strongest teams in the league when they are all healthy, led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt. 2014 first overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney is expected to come into his own this season after two years of nagging injuries. The Texans neither lost any significant Free Agents on Defence nor signed or drafted any. We like Brian Hoyer as a Quarterback much more than Osweiller and with makeup games against New England and Cincinnati repeating as division champions will be a tough road to hoe.

The 3/1 Jacksonville Jaguars are a lot of people’s sleeper pick for 2016. We liked the Jags in 2015 during their 1-5 start to the season so know them better than we would have otherwise and can state that they are weak on defence and special teams and probably need one more year to gel into a true contender which is reflected by their sixth-worst AFC team ranking according to the bookmaker’s odds (20/1 to win it). That doesn’t mean they can’t win a highly competitive AFC South.

Jacksonville continued to rotate in Offensive Line personal and could have a solid starting five with 2013 second overall pick Luke Joeckel becoming their swing tackle. While still potentially weak at one of the Guard positions, it is hoped that Free Agent Chris Ivory can provide a solid running game to compliment fine young Quarterback Blake Bortles. Jacksonville’s trio of pass catchers (Hurns, Robinson, and Thomas) round out the highest scoring Offence in the AFC South.

On Defence, Jacksonville pretty much devoted their entire draft to defenders and while some of them may have an impact in 2016, it is more likely that 2017 will be their year to shine. Free Agents Malik Johnson and Tashaun Gipson fill immediate needs however the Jaguars gave up more points in 2015 than every other team except Rob Ryan’s Saints disaster. Jacksonville still has too many below average defenders and although we expect a better scheme from Gus Bradley reflecting the improvements that have been made, we do not think 3/1 is a fair price.

The 8/1 Tennessee Titans round out the division and look to be a team that is still a year or two away from contending. The Titans pretty muck acknowledged this by trading down in the first round of the draft and collecting three first and second round picks (among others). The Titans have improved overall nevertheless as they had an excellent draft on both sides of the ball and look to be net winners in Free Agency as well. It appears that the Titans are going to give Mike Mularkey a real shot as Head Coach.

Mularkey has been saying all spring that he wants to play smashmouth football on Offence and has brought in North-South Running Backs Free Agent DeMarco Murray and Heisman Winner Derrick Henry to get the job done along with Free Agent Center Ben Jones (from Houston) and Eighth overall pick Offensive Tackle Jack Conklin to help clear the way. Second-year Quarterback Mariota was getting killed last season until Wisenhunt got the and still achieved a Passer Rating of 91.3 on the season. Bringing in Free Agent Rishard Matthews from the Dolphins should give Marcus another viable target and give the Offence more balance.

On Defence, Tennessee’s new GM Jon Robinson (another Patriots alumnus) made a significant overhaul (doubtless in conjunction with Dick Lebeau) bringing in Free Agents Spence, Johnson and Blake and taking 3 defenders within the draft’s first 64 picks as well as 3 late round picks. The defence should benefit from it being in the second year under Lebeau and from the Offence controlling the ball, should that indeed come to pass. With makeup games at Miami and at home against Cleveland, the Titans could secure an extra win or two.

The AFC South is too tough to call. 12/5 Houston are very generous odds however Brock Osweiler is more likely to tank than not and has Brandon Weeden as his back-up. 6/5 Indianapolis and 3/1 Jacksonville do not provide good value while Tennessee @ 8/1 is a fair price but the Titans have no depth should injuries occur.

Selection: None

AFC North

The AFC North has sent five teams to the postseason in the last two years and has been one of the best divisions in the league over the past few seasons. Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger was too injured to carry the Steelers far into the 2015 playoffs, bowing out in the Divisional Round while Bengal’s backup AJ McCarron played as well as anyone had a right to expect in two narrow losses, the second making for yet another Bengal one-and-done. Baltimore was best by injuries on defence and then lost Flacco to an ACL injury while Cleveland once again wallowed in ignominy in the wake of the Johnny Football fiasco.

The 20/21 Pittsburgh Steelers are favored to take the AFC North this season. Losers to the Broncos by seven [7] points in the Divisional Round after leading until there were about 3 minutes left, the Steelers were unable to rally their highly vaunted Offence late in the game. The bulk of their Offence returns for 2016 while their Defence enters year two with Coordinator Keith Butler.

Reams have already been written about how great the Steelers Offence will be this season however after losing Left Tackle Kelvin Beachum, as of now Practice Squad player Alejandro Villanueva is pencilled in to replace him, who last played in 2010 for Army as a Tight End. That could prove to be a problem and result in Big Ben getting hit even more than usual. The Steelers inability to address this so far is a real problem. While they are certain to still score a lot of points, Roethlisberger will have a lot more company when he tries to scramble, which is when he is perhaps most productive.

Pittsburgh also lost some Free Agents of note on Defence (Mc Lendon, Spence, Johnson, and Blake), while drafting a fresh crop headed by a pair of Cornerbacks (Burns and Davis). The Steelers depth on defence is sure to be tested however overall they look like one of the better teams in the league this season and as such close to even money is not too terrible a price.

Second-choice 19/10 Cincinnati comes into 2016 with a lot more questions. Perhaps most importantly, AJ McCarron’s success late last year has to raise concerns about Andy Dalton. McCarron posted a higher Passer Rating in the playoffs than Dalton ever has in his four losses and it was a fumble by Jeremy Hill on the Steeler 26 with 1:30 remaining that cost the Bengals the game rather than anything McCarron did wrong.

  

The Bengals lost their second and third tier Wide Receivers (Jones and Sanu) while bringing in Patriots castoff Brandon LaFell (who dropped way too many balls in 2015) and took WR Tyler Boyd in the second round of the draft to kick off 2016. Starting Right Tackle Andre Smith also flew the coop. As well, Cincinnati lost excellent Coach and Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson to rival Cleveland. It is hard to imagine this Offence being better than last years with all the changes. It would be nice to see the Bengals move on from Dalton but good is too often the enemy of great, especially in Cincinnati.

Defence is another story entirely. The Bengals picked up Karlos Dansby and Taylor Mays as modest priced Free Agents, fourth round potential steal Andrew Billings could start as the anchor of the Bengal’s 3-4 sets, described by Walter Football as “A rare interior Defensive Lineman with a special combination of massive power at the point of attack and a burst to get after the quarterback.” First Round Pick William Jackson III could be any kind at 6’ 0” and with a 4.37-second 40-yard dash. The Bengals might have the best defence in the AFC North this season.

The 7/2 Baltimore Ravens are coming off of a horrendous year in which their Defence blew up entirely while their pedestrian Offence first lost top Wide Receiver Steve Smith Sr. to a Torn Achilles and then Quarterback Joe Flacco blew out his ACL against the Rams in an ugly game that saw Raven’s Nose Tackle Timmy Jernigan smash Rams Quarterback Case Keenum’s head into the ground, which apparently nobody saw “live” and Keenum’s subsequent fumble while he was in never-never-land cost the Rams the game.

Assuming Flacco and Smith come back for Week One, the Ravens attempted to replace departed Free Agent Guard Kelechi Osemele with sixth overall draft pick Ronnie Stanley from Notre Dame. GM Ozzie Newsome used another four [4] of his eleven [11] total draft picks on Offence, drafting an Offensive Tackle, a Wide Receiver and a pair of Running Backs (fourth round and beyond). In an attempt to kick-start the Offence Newsome also signed Free Agent Wide Receiver Mike Wallace (Vikings) and Tight End Benjamin Watson (Saints).

Linebackers Daryl Smith and Courtney Upshaw left as Free Agents on Defence while the Ravens spent most of their draft picks on Defence including OLB/DE Correa from Boise State. If 33-year-old Terrell Suggs can return from his Torn Achilles to lead, the fresh blood might help the Ravens to return to a prominent Defence. They need the help. The Ravens finished last season twenty-third in scoring after giving up over 400 points.

In Cleveland, the 33/1 Browns continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Despite legend's Jim Brown’s assurance that things are different in Cleveland with Hue Jackson taking over as head coach, the mere fact that they have moved on from headcase Johnny Manziel to headcase Robert Griffen tells you pretty much all that you need to know. The annual exodus of quality players continued with Free Agents Alex Mack, Tashaun Gibson, Mitchell Schwartz and Travis Benjamin all leaving for either contenders or teams soon to be contenders.

There doesn’t seem to be a good bet in the AFC North. Pittsburgh could have trouble on Defence, Cincinnati could have them on Offence while Baltimore could have both and Cleveland is a joke.

Selection: None

AFC East

The New England Patriots have won the AFC East every year since 2003 except the year Matt Cassel led them to an 11-5 mark when Brady was injured in 2008. The Bills have not gone 11-5 this century and the Dolphins and Jets are not much better having achieved that mark once each this century. There is talk that perhaps another team can win the AFC East this year if Tom Brady is forced to serve the absurd suspension Stokoe Goodell (see Related Link: AEI Wells Report Rebuttal) cooked up for him however with three [3] of the four [4] games in Foxborough and all summer to prepare for it, the Patriots could win them all and not miss a beat.

Even with Brady’s suspension looming, the 1/2 Patriots are the second-shortest team on the board (Carolina is 9/20). There is a very good reason for this: The Patriots are the complete team in the NFL. They even have the best Kicker in the NFL in Stephen Gostkowski. New England also features what might be the best coaching staff in the league headed up by Bill Belichick. After struggling with their Offensive Line for a couple of years, Dante Scarnecchia returns for 2016 and will likely stay on until Brady retires. 

The acquisition of Free Agent Martellus Bennett allows Josh McDaniels to re-open his double Tight End Offence which will set up either coverage mismatches or power run plays featuring our favorite NFL player (the 250lb sprinter LeGarrette Blount). The diminutive Dion Lewis returns to contrast Blount on third down. Free Agent Wide Receivers Nate Washington and Chris Hogan join Danny Amendola, who took a pay cut to stay in New England, Julian Edelman, draft pick Malcolm Mitchell and probably Keshawn Martin. The Return of Left Tackle Nate Solder allows Right Tackle Sebastien Volmer to return to his natural position while youngster La’Adrian Waddle is expected to be the Swing Tackle this season and will benefit tremendously from Scarnecchia’s tutelage as should the cast of Guards including former first-round pick Jonathan Cooper. Center Bryan Stork should return healed for 2016.

The Patriots Defence should feature an entirely different Defensive Line with Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard on the ends while Rob Ninkovich returns to Linebacker, joining Shea McLellin, Jamie Collins, and Donta Hightower. Cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan are expected to be joined by draft pick Cyrus Jones while Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung return at Safety. Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia has a deep pool to choose from at Defensive Tackle in a 3-4 or 4-3 look including Pot Roast (Terrence Knighton), Alan Branch, Malcolm Brown, and draft pick Vincent Valentine plus a number of depth players. Much like the Offence, the Patriots Defence has a lot of depth which they hope will cover off whatever injury problems 2016 throws at them and gives them a very good Special Teams corps. It is a masterful roster they have put together which justifies their being favored to win the Super Bowl.

The second choice, the 5/1 New York Jets, come into Head Coach Todd Bowles’s sophomore season with questions on both Offence and Defence. Former Jets Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick choked terribly once again last season, surrendering a fourth quarter lead by tossing interceptions on all three of the Jets final possessions to knock the Jets out of the playoffs and remains unsigned for 2015 while front seven standout Muhammad Wilkerson is trying to force a long-term deal with the inevitable massive signing bonus it would come with, telling the New York Post (ever so humbly); “I’m a talented guy. Everybody knows that. I feel like they’re going to get the best they can out of me and just let me go” after the Jets applied a $15.701 million franchise tag to him earlier in the year.

The Jets are most probably better off without Fitzpatrick as owner Woody Johnson, who appears to delight such dramas on a seemingly annual basis, has refused to budge on his original $12 million offer, far more than the 34-year-old Quarterback with a career winning percentage 0.413 winner and a Passer Rating of 80.8 has ever earned in the past. Last season Fitzpatrick was replaced in Houston with Brian Hoyer who took the Texans to the playoffs, something Fitzpatrick has never been able to do, at a cost of $5,093,750 to the Texans. With the Jets bouncing off the top of the Salary Cap already, it is hard to imagine Johnson moving any place except forward from Fitzpatrick.

The Jets Offence shall then likely be run by fourth year Quarterback Geno Smith, who reportedly had beaten Fitzpatrick out for the starting assignment up until Smith, unable to be anything but a first class jackass, had his jaw broken by a teammate who was foolish enough to pay for an airline ticket on Smith’s behalf and then surprised when Smith stiffed him. The Jets have not done anything to improve their 26th-ranked Offensive Line (as per PFF) from 2015 except drafting Brandon Shell in the fourth round and signing Free Agent Left Tackle Ryan Clady to replace the retired D'Brickashaw Ferguson, making for another dreadful line for Free Agent Running Back Matt Forte to run behind. Wide Receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker will help, but the Jets Offence is expected to struggle. When, rather than if, Geno Smith crashes and burns, look for either Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg to finish out the season.

The Jets defence looks to be impressive once more in 2016, with Todd Bowles bringing in Free Agent Nose Tackle Steve McLendon to replace the departing Damon Harrison (who moved on to the Giants) and ILB Bruce Carter was brought in from Tampa Bay to offset the loss of Demario Davis to the Browns (at least one guy was willing to go TO Cleveland). Backup Cornerbacks Darrin Walls and Antonio Allen left for Detroit and Houston respectively with Darryl Morris coming in from Houston and Juston Burris getting drafted in the fourth round. The Jets will most probably retain a spot in the top ten scoring defences however with no real option at Quarterback it is hard to imagine them competing for a playoff spot. If Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg get enough playing time, 2017 would be more likely.

The 6/1 Buffalo Bills enter 2016 with problems before Training Camp even begins with fragile Wide Receiver Sammy Watkins dealing with a broken foot (for which he had surgery during the offseason). Last season Buffalo’s sacks plummeted from a league leading 54 in 2014 to a second to last 21 while their scoring defence fell from third to fifteenth, both of which coincided with Yogi Bear (Rex Ryan) taking over as Head Coach. Buffalo’s passing offence dropped from a middling eighteenth to twenty-eight however the Bills did lead the league in rushing yards, due mostly to the 568 yards generated by Quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

Tyrod Taylor returns under center for 2016 behind an Offensive Line ranked a surprising ninth overall by PFF in 2015 however Right Tackle Seantrel Henderson, a seventh-round pick (due in large part to him being a complete headcase) has been MIA so far this year with "Yeah I have no update for you guys on that" being Rex Ryan’s response to questions surrounding Henderson’s return. Top Running Back LeSean McCoy is coming off a sub-1,000 yard season, top Wide Receiver Watkins is hurt (as above) and the Bills are already in salary cap trouble.

Being forced to use their first round pick (after not having one in 2015 as part of the Watkins trade-up) in an attempt to replace the defection of Defensive End Mario Williams to division rival Miami, the Bills also lost their best Linebacker (Nigel Bradham) to the Eagles (they signed 33-year-old former Oakland Raider Lorenzo Alexander) and let long-time special teamer and Cornerback Leodis McKelvin go. Compounding the fall of the Bills defence, Yogi brought in twin brother Boo Boo (Rob Ryan), last seen getting fired for fielding the worst Defence in the league last season in New Orleans. Bills new owners Terry and Kim Pegula are learning the ropes in an accelerated fashion thanks to Rex, whom they will likely replace for 2017, and Stokoe Goodell who is pressuring them for a new stadium a mere year after the good people of Western New York paid $130 million to renovate Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Rounding out the AFC East, the 13/2 Miami Dolphins come into 2016 with a new Head Coach in Adam Gase. Gase, who followed John Fox to Chicago from Denver last season before getting his first shot as top dog, has hired Vance Joseph as his Defensive Coordinator, which is also Joseph’s first chance at running his own NFL Defence. Dolphins owner ,Stephen Ross has opted to go with an inexperienced group of coaches to go along with first-time GM Chris Grier while giving overall control to Mike Tannenbaum. 

With three [3] of the Dolphins first four [4] games on the road against 2015 playoff teams (although New England is likely to be without Tom Brady), a 1-3 September is a very real possibility and with all four [4] of their final games against teams that finished last season at 0.500 and above, a 1-3 record over that stretch is equally likely. Miami’s “middle eight” games include tilts against potential playoff teams for 2016 Pittsburgh, San Diego and Baltimore on top of divisional foes New York and Buffalo. All of that makes for a fairly stacked deck against which Ross’s band of merry (inexperienced) men will be seriously tested right out of the gate. 

Despite owner Ross’s unbridled enthusiasm, Miami will need to get a Quarterback before booking any trips to the Super Bowl. Ryan Tannehill is simply inadequate. In addition, Miami lost their number two Wide Receiver (Rishard Matthews) and top Running Back (Lamar Miller) this past offseason. Potentially “stealing” Left Tackle Laremy Tunsil, who plummeted to number thirteen in the draft after the “Gas Mask Video”, may help improve last season’s thirty-first ranked Offensive Line (they finished ahead of a decimated San Diego only last season) however after Jonathan Martin one might think that the Dolphins would have avoided taking on the risk. Free Agent Guards Kraig Urbik and Jermon Bushrod join Tackle Sam Young to complete the makeover.

On Defence, Bills Free Agent Mario Williams and Jacksonville’s Andre Branch were signed to offset the loss of Defensive Ends Olivier Vernon (sack leader) to the Giants and Derrick Shelby to the Falcons, while Free Safety Isa Abdul-Quddus came over from Detroit to round out the significant (from a cash outlay perspective at least) Free Agent defenders to shore up the back end along with second round pick Xavien Howard. A lot of how well the Dolphins Defence will perform is dependent upon how well the additions gel with Donkey Kong Suh. If nothing else, 2016 could serve as a vital training ground upon which Miami can build towards 2017 and beyond.

Selection: New England Patriots @ 1/2