Well here’s to the 15 or so who bothered to read this blog last week. We sincerely hope that they (you) bet as much on the Rams (we missed 13/2 but were quite happy with 6/1) as we did. Case Keenum made our season right there and then. We shoveled a fair bit of the profits onto the Patriots to win it all at 3/1 so even if we lose we win (for the season). 6/1 will do that for you when you hit it hard. Hard to get excited about the worst week of the season with the playoffs looming but there are bound to be some profitable plays in the seven or eight games that have playoff consequences. For example, you could take the Dolphins at almost 4/1 to knock off the Patriots (you can, we’ll pass), the high-flyin’ Ryan Mallett version of the Ravens at 3/1 to turn off the Steelers lights (we’ll also pass here) if you like a whole lotta risk. Such is the last weekend of the regular season.
While it appears that construction started a little over a week ago of the City of Champions Stadium adjacent to Hollywood Park in Inglewood, Ca., proposed home to the “new” LA Rams, it is hard to tell who’s zoomin’ who in that little piece of hell on earth known as Los Angeles. Still in St. Louis, the Rams head out to San Francisco this weekend as 4/7 favorites. This season the Rams have beaten the Seahawks at 17/10, the Cardinals at 5/2, the Lions at 7/5, the Bucs at 6/5 and the Seahawks (again) at 6/1 (to make it 3 of the last 4 - You’d think people would learn) but have not performed nearly as well when favored. Sure, they beat the Browns at 5/12 with McCown under center and the 49ers at 1/4 with Kaepernick (3-13 combined on the year) but so did pretty much everyone else. Some teams represent good value at 8/15 but we don’t feel that the Rams do this week.
Other games it is likely a good idea to stay away from include Saints at Falcons, Redskins at Cowboys, Titans at Colts and Eagles at Giants (along with Rams at 49ers) as there is nothing on the line and virtually anyone could end up playing (including former Tampa Bay flame-out Josh Freeman). While an argument could be made that this team is playing for that, remember that the Bills beat New England when the Super Bowl-bound Patriots trotted Jimmy Garappolo out to start the second half last year when the Patriots were heavily favored – You just don’t know. Also, you might notice that we are no longer including the Point Spreads. Although there are times when the Alternate Point Spread can be employed to your advantage, our experiment with Point Spreads was a dismal failure. Best to go with what you know.
Sundays Games
5/8 New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills 7/5
The Jets visit the Ralph in Orchard Park where Yogi Bear (aka Rex Ryan) would like nothing more than to repay the Bills owners for their vote of confidence this week with a win. We have a sneaking suspicion that this version of the Bills defence (assembled long before Rex showed up) plays its' very best when they have nothing to win. Last season they went into Foxborough and held Brady to six [6] points the entire first half (albeit without Gronk) and we expect them to play just as well at home against Ryan’s former team. Besides, any reason to bet against the Jets is a good reason.
Selection: Buffalo Bills at 7/5
EVS Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears 5/6
Bet this game at your peril. After lecturing about meaningless games we come right out and pick one. Not. We would have gone with the Bears but the Lions have been playing too well (5-2) since their Bye Week.
Selection: None
2/11 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns 15/4
Had Johnny Football not suffered a concussion last week we would have been tempted to go with the upset. But he did, likely saving us some money in the process
Selection: None
3/1 Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals 1/4
Can Ryan Mallett do the giant killer thing two [2] weeks in a row? Can lightning strike the same place twice? Probably not.
Selection: None
2/11 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 15/4
The Patriots need to win this game to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs however they are not risking several of their assets and we would not be surprised in the least if Gronk was a healthy scratch and Brady played only in the first half. Despite Fitzpatrick’s improbable 80-yard game-winning touchdown drive in overtime (proving that lightning can indeed strike the same place twice) trumping Belichick’s craftiness last week, old Bill is successful more often than not. As such, we have no idea what he has in store for the Dolphins this week and shall pass.
Selection: None
23/10 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans 10/27
Had the Jaguars place-kicker Myers hit a couple of game-winning field goal tries and had Quarterback Blake Bortles thrown a few fewer interceptions this game would be for the division title. But it isn’t and that strangely makes us fear Jacksonville’s potent passing attack all the more. Brian Hoyer is bound to be rusty and it is almost impossible for the Texans to miss the playoffs so this one is yet another to let pass.
Selection: None
23/10 Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals 10/27
This game is another one wherein the Cardinals need to win to get themselves of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs however they also require that the Panthers lose to the Bucs. The Seahawks, on the other hand, will play the Packers or Vikings unless they win. If the Seahawks and Packers win, Seattle goes to Washington. Washington has the better offence while the Vikings have the better defence. All of that aside, especially since this game will be over before the Green Bay at Minnesota game starts, we expect that Seattle will not want to go into the playoffs on a losing streak. If the Panthers open up a big lead on the Bucs (like the Rams did a couple of weeks ago), Arians could be sending out the second team for the second half. We are taking, for the first time this year we think, Seattle, who have drifted down from close to 3/1. But just this once.
Selection: Seattle Seahawks at 23/10
15/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers 2/11
Nothing would be finer than watch Tampa Bay destroy Carolina. The problem with Panthers coach Ron Rivera is that you never know what he is going to do and can’t tell if he is shrewd or stupid. We can almost make a case for backing the Bucs and will do so with the thinking that, even if Newton plays, he won’t needlessly expose himself to injury. Do not bet a lot.
Selection: Tampa Bay Bucs at 23/10
12/5 Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs 5/14
The Raiders improved in leaps and bounds this season and had their two [2] point loss to the Bears and their five [5] point loss to the Lions gone the other way this game would be for a Wild Card. At this point in their careers, we like Carr to beat Smith and snap the Chief’s ridiculous nine [9] game winning streak.
Selection: Oakland Raiders at 12/5
3/1 San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos 1/4
We fully expect the San Diego Chargers to come out and play the best game of their injury-riddled season in what may be their final game representing the city of San Diego and put a whupping on the Broncos regardless of whether it is Osweiler of Manning. Philip Rivers can’t win much this year, but he can win this game.
Selection: San Diego Chargers at 3/1
31/20 Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers 4/7
In the season finale, the Packers can save face a little by again beating the Vikings and taking the NFC North. The Vikings have only beaten one team that finished the year with a record above 0.500 over the past two seasons and that was Kansas City in their last loss of a five [5] game losing streak before winning their next nine games.
Selection: Green Bay Packers 4/7
So there you have it. See you for the Wild Card Round.
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