The NFL in this Moment - Week Sixteen 2015

The Seattle Seahawks have once again reared their ugly heads [And they are ugly], to find themselves once again headed for the playoffs but Carson Palmer was able to play 14 games this season (so far) allowing the Cardinals to build an unassailable lead before Seattle could get their shit together. And, therein lay the rub: How good can a division pretty much owned by Carson Palmer be? If we allow that superior conditioning and diet combined with rule changes aimed specifically increasing the longevity of Quarterbacks permit Tom Brady to be increasingly effective even at age 38, we must also, at least, entertain the notion that Palmer has been able to ascend to the rank of “elite” (whatever that means). A big part of the problem in determining just how good the 2015 version of the Seahawks might be is tied inexorably to the fact that the NFC simply does not possess adequate competition for an accurate appraisal.

The NFC has an East division that was so messed up last year that the supremely dysfunctional Dallas Cowboys somehow sported a perfect 8-0 road record to top it, a North division which saw the Lions spot the other three teams five [5] wins out of the gate and seven [7] of their first eight [8] starts, the Bears attempting the unenviable task of switching directions at full speed under new HC John Fox, the Vikings with a top-notch starting defence that was found to be threadbare in the depth department once the inevitable injuries hit and the (fudge) Packers, who’s loss of Jordy Nelson for the entire year helped make Aaron Rodgers look incredibly ordinary, and the NFC West which is, almost by default, head-and-shoulders above the rest where even the third-place Rams even, after ALL those extra draft picks gifted to them by Danny Snyder et al, can, on a good day, beat all of the above. The 49ers are excused this term due to the departure of most (2/3rds) of their starting defence and their piece of $#*! Coach.

Seattle lost to the Bengals but beat the Steelers (although the Steelers had a first down on the Seahawk ten and a half yard line down five (5) with under three minutes to play when things went awry, including the departure of Roethlisberger. One surprising development that has come from the loss of Marshawn Lynch is the possibility of Russell Wilson emerging as a legitimate NFL-caliber starting Quarterback, even with a large number of his touchdown passes traveling a small number of yards. We all remember what happened when Wilson tried that with the big kids from Baahstun down in Phoenix in February however for whatever reason the blame for that errant pass stuck to Pete Carrol and/or OC Bevell instead of where it should have rested. You may have noticed that we have neglected to mention Carolina. The reason is simple: During their improbable run of fourteen [14] straight wins, the Panthers have beaten exactly one [1] team that currently has a winning record: A Green Bay Packer squad that cannot stop the run to save their lives and whose main threat in the passing game is 31 year old James Jones, a decent enough of a wide receiver but also one who’s best days are well behind him.

Meanwhile, back in the much more comfortable AFC, the status quo is being fastidiously maintained. The New England Patriots have locked up the AFC East for the seventh straight year and a first round Bye for the sixth straight year (they can secure top seed for the second straight year with one [1] more win), the Bengals and Steelers are once again duking it out for the AFC North (the loser should get a Wild Card), the Texans are looking like they will reclaim the South from the Colts after three straight Indy titles and the Broncos once again rule the AFC West however the pesky KC Chiefs keep on winning (presently eight [8] in a row with ten [10] total more likely than not) and could knock the Broncos down to a Wild Card. Any scenario that has the Broncos missing the playoffs altogether requires a Jets victory over the Patriots. Jets Quarterback Fitzpatrick is 1-7 lifetime over New England, his lone win coming in Week Three of the 2011 season when Brady threw four [4] interceptions.

The feature AFC matchup this weekend (although perhaps not as good a game as the Patriots/Jets) has AJ McCarron leading the Cincinnati Bengals into Denver where a Bengal loss could cost them a first round bye while a Denver loss could see them miss the playoffs altogether. In a perfect world, the Patriots will beat the Jets while the Bengals beat the Broncos. The Steelers win out to take a Wild Card and the number five seed. The Chiefs then win out and take the AFC West, leaving the Broncos with a Wild Card in the final number six seed. This would set up a Wild Card round wherein the Chiefs host the Broncos while the Steelers visit the Texans. After Kansas City sends Kubiak home with that old, familiar one-and-done feeling they get to go to Cincinnati and try their luck with the Bengals while the winner of the Houston-Pittsburgh tilt get a trip to Foxborough.

The NFC will almost certainly have Carolina and Arizona getting first round Byes. If Seattle loses to St. Louis and Arizona (which they already have this season) they would fall to the sixth seed and would end up facing the winner of the NFC North (Minnesota or Green Bay). The loser of the NFC North would then take the fifth seed. In this dream scenario, the Seahawks go to Lambeau and lose due to the lack of a running back while Kirk Cousins continues his hot streak and beats the Vikings. The Redskins would then go to Charlotte to take on the Panthers while the Packers head to Arizona to play the Cardinals.

Thursday Night Football

 2/1 San Diego Chargers +5.0 @ 5/12 Oakland Raiders -5.0

As the season winds down there are many of these type of games this week and next – Games with nothing on the line but pride where teams may or may not try some experimentation. This game has nothing to recommend it.

Selection: None

Satruday Night Football

7/5 Washington Redskins +3.0 @ 5/8 Philadelphia Eagles -3.0

The Eagles and Redskins are an identical 6-7-1 vs the spread this season so no help available from that angle. Washington has the better overall record and the better Quarterback based on current form. Add in the better odds and the Redskins are the better bet.

Selection: 7/5 Washington Redskins

4/1 San Francisco 49ers +9.0 @ 5/19 Detroit Lions -9.0

Selection: None

1/5 Pittsburgh Steelers -10.0 @ 7/2 Baltimore Ravens +10.0

Selection: None

11/5 Dallas Cowboys +6.0 @ 5/13 Buffalo Bills -6.0

Selection: None

5/8 Indianapolis Colts –3.0 @ 7/5 Miami Dolphins +3.0

Selection: None

15/8 Houston Texans + 4.5 @ 10/23 Tennessee Titans -4.5

With the Texans still in the hunt for the division while the Titans are forced to go with back-up Zach Mettenberger you have to know the bettors want no part of projected starter Brandon Weeden who won his first game since 2012 (albeit in relief of TJ Yates). You want to believe that if Hoyer passes the concussion protocol these odds will flip-flop in a heartbeat, however, we like the Texans EVEN WITH Weeden starting.

Selection: 15/8 Houston Texans

20/33 New England Patriots -3.0 @ 29/20 New York Jets +3.0

The spread and odds on this game are a lot more bet-able than anticipated. It is unlikely New England would want to leave a chance at locking up top seed asking. It may not last so grab it while you can.

Selection: 20/33 New England Patriots

7/5 Chicago Bears +3.0 @ 5/8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0

You have to believe that Lovie Smith would like nothing better than to send the Bears back to Chicago with a case of the blues – The Black & Blues that is. Problem is, John Fox is the better coach and watching Winston lose to the Rams it was easy to see that he doesn’t like being uncomfortable. Fox will use that to his advantage.

Selection: 7/5 Chicago Bears

26/5 Cleveland Browns +12.5 @ 2/15 Kansas City Chiefs -12.5

The way Manziel marched the Browns down the field to take a 7-0 lead over Seattle was likely a portent of things yet to come – Provided Johnny stays focussed on football, at least during football season. At these odds, betting against Alex Smith has got to be attractive.

Selection: 26/5 Cleveland Browns

5/16 Carolina Panthers -7.0 @ 13/5 Atlanta Falcons +7.0

Selection: None

13/2 St. Louis Rams +13.5 @ 1/10 Seattle Seahawks -13.5

The Rams beat the Seahawks at home this year and last but could not win in Seattle in 2014. They can’t win much this year, but they can win this game. Case Keenum is definitely an improvement over the rest of the guys that have faced Seattle the past two years. Gotta love these odds.

Selection: 13/2 St. Louis Rams

7/4 Green Bay Packers +4.0 @ 10/21 Arizona Cardinals -4.0

Great chance for Packer fans to recoup some of their losses from earlier this year. Of course, that brings to mind one of my Uncle Frank’s maxims: Every time I try to get even, things get even worse.

Selection: None

Sunday Night Football
11/5 New York Giants +6.0 @ 5/13 Minnesota Vikings -6.0

If Washington wins, by the time this game is played it could be all over but the crying for the Giants nevertheless one must assume that losing to Teddy Wobblyballs would have to rankle even the most amenable of gridiron gentlemen. Take the odds and take the Giants

Selection: 11/5 New York Giants

Monday Night Football
8/5 Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 @ 5/9 Denver Broncos -3.5

The Broncos have only been averaging a shade over 18 points per game with Brock (throwing out the New England game where Brady put up the points for both teams) and when you knock out scores by the defence and long field goal it drops to below 14 points. As well, Brock has not faced a defence as nearly as good as Cincinnati’s (again, throw out the Patriots) and you have to wonder if the wrong team is favored here. AJ McCarron broke his maiden in his first start in impressive fashion so he should not be a concern. Take the odds or the points but be sure to take the Bengals.

Selection: 8/5 Cincinnati Bengals