The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 7 pm EDT – Week Four 2017

5/8 New Orleans Saints   vs   Miami Dolphins 7/5 in England

Not a good game to bet. Jay Cutler is back to being Jay Cutler, meaning he plays well only when there is little or no pressure on him to perform. With the Saints, you never know about the Defence. Not a good game to bet.

10/17 Cincinnati Bengals   @   Cleveland Browns 6/4

We liked the Bengals to beat the Packers last week, but they could not close the deal. Dalton has lost badly in Cleveland in the past. The Browns are the Browns. Pass.

10/17 Jacksonville Jaguars   @   New York Jets 6/4

Which Blake Bortles will show up in New York? Will the Jets young team continue to play disciplined? Neither price is attractive.

4/5 Tennessee Titans   @   Houston Texans 21/20

This game is a bit risky, but so long as Deshaun Watson does not take a step backwards, Houston’s Defence should dominate at home. Take Houston at 21/20 indoors where the Titan’s run game should be less effective.

5/8 Pittsburgh Steelers   @   Baltimore Ravens 7/5

It is starting to look more and more like Ben Roethlisberger’s fire is going out and that his offseason retirement talk might have had some truth to it. The Ravens always play the Steelers well, and we never take anything that happens in a London game at face value. We like Baltimore at 7/5 at home.

13/4 Buffalo Bills   @   Atlanta Falcons 2/9

We believe the Atlanta Falcons to be vastly overrated and very much like what McDermott is doing in Buffalo. The Bills were winning BEFORE Siemian’s lame duck interception, and we would expect Denver to demolish Atlanta. The Falcon’s Defence still is not very good, but the Bills is. Bet Buffalo at 13/4 with aplomb.  

7/2 Carolina Panthers   @   New England Patriots 1/5

It is easiest, though never easy, to beat a Belichick coached team in the first quarter of the season. Sunday will essentially be the Patriots final tune-up before they start to get serious about 2017 and maybe put Hightower back on the field. As well, teams generally play their best game against New England, treating Patriots Week as their Super Bowl for the year, especially NFC teams. Putting this together with the Patriots at 1/5, it does not make the risk worth the reward. Should be fun to watch though.

12/5 Los Angeles Rams   @   Dallas Cowboys 5/14

We can honestly say that we never thought we would advise anyone to bet real money on Jared Goff, but the Cowboys really are a lousy football team. Last we heard, they had converted to a Pistol Offence. Doubtless because Dak Prescott, the Cowboy’s Offensive Line, or both are out of their depth in a Pro Offence. The Dallas Defence is also not very good. The Rams may not be for real either, but at 12/5 are at least worth a flier. The way Arizona and Seattle are playing, the Rams could win the NFC West.

21/20 Philadelphia Eagles   @   Los Angeles Chargers 4/5

We had to double-check the injury list to see if anyone else (beyond Fletcher Cox) had gone down during the Giants game when we saw the odds on this one. Jim Schwartz continues to do an amazing job with the Eagles Defence while the Chargers can’t buy a win. With 4/5ths of the Charger Offensive Line either injured or suspended, it should surprise no one that LA cannot score enough points to win a game. Philadelphia almost won in Kansas City. The 21/20 Eagles will win in Los Angeles to even their record vs the AFC West at 1-1 with the other two games later on and at home.

7/5 New York Giants   @   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5/8

Two badly coached teams with inconsistent Quarterbacks meet in Tampa Bay. We have no feel for this game whatsoever.

5/2 San Francisco 49ers   @   Arizona Cardinals 1/3

Kyle Shanahan will break his maiden as a head coach with the hard luck 49ers soon. He was robbed against the Rams last week (see previous post). At this point in their careers, Hoyer is a much better Quarterback than Palmer is, but that is no praise really considering Palmer should be out of the league. Bruce Arians has never had an NFL caliber Quarterback during his tenure in Arizona, which is not his fault but will get him fired nevertheless. Taking San Francisco at 5/2 is a good risk/reward ratio.

13/10 Oakland Raiders   @   Denver Broncos   4/6

We were hoping to get better than even money on the Broncos after the poor showing Siemian had in Buffalo, but alas, there will be no free lunch. We can’t see Carr faring any better against Aqib Talib and the boys than he did against the Redskins, and perhaps the rarified air in Denver will allow Trevor to toss the ball all the way out of bounds. A half-stake bet on Denver at 4/6 may be the best play. Or pass.

13/2 Indianapolis Colts   @   Seattle Seahawks 1/10

The fast improving Jacoby Brissett gets his first visit to the Hawks Nest in Seattle in prime time on SNF. We have heard many excuses, but Seattle’s Defence is getting older and their Offensive Line is a disaster. The Seahawks loss to the Tennessee Titans, who need to prove that they can win against teams like the Texans (which we seriously doubt), is troubling. Case Keenum paid boxcars in his first win in Seattle, and Brissett is more than double the odds that Keenum was. The Colts at 13/2 could represent the weekend’s best value on SNF.

5/2 Washington Redskins   @   Kansas City Chiefs 1/3

Unless you reckon Kansas City is going 16-0, or at least 8-0 at home, you have to consider the way the Redskins Defence is playing right now in this moment. We expect the Washington secondary to deal with the passing game and their front seven to bottle up Kareem Hunt. All that leaves are the Chiefs gimmicks, which the more tape they create, the easier they will be to defend against. Since Kirk Cousins costly interception Week One, he has not thrown another. We expect a very close game, but with the wide disparity in the odds, we have to bet the Redskins at 5/2.