Welcome to the NFL for 2017

Welcome to the NFL for 2017. Bitter experience has taught us to NEVER BET WEEK ONE. Every single team changes in the offseason, some more than others, a lot of coaching changes take place, teams evolve, and many anomalies occur. These anomalies are only visible in hindsight however, so the skilful bettor must use superior knowledge to interpret the lessons that Week One teaches. Here is a list of the teams with superior coaching staffs and/or player personnel decision makers:

§  New England Patriots – Belichick HC et al

§  Pittsburgh Steelers - Kevin Colbert GM (& Mike Tomlin HC)

§  Baltimore Ravens – Ozzie Newsome GM (& John Harbaugh HC)

§  Jacksonville Jaguars – Doug Marrone HC (& Tom Coughlin)

§  Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid HC

§  Philadelphia Eagles – Howie Roseman GM

§  Minnesota Vikings – Mike Zimmer HC

§  Chicago Bears – John Fox HC

Not a very long list. Many people would add Pete Carroll, but Pete has only won a single title with an elite roster, and Seattle loses many games that they should not. Bruce Arians deserves honorable mention as an Offensive Coordinator, as does Ron Rivera as a Defensive Coordinator.

There are more Coaching Staffs too new to be considered dependable than anything else. Next, there is a group of coaches who have had to deal with undermanned rosters (the Colts, Raiders and Bengals jump to mind) so that they are impossible to evaluate. Finally, there are the coaches (and owners) that are actual detriments to their team’s success. These teams are good to bet against. All else being equal. When they face each other, we take the one at the longer odds, but we try to avoid betting them if possible:

§  Green Bay Packers (McCarthy AND Capers)

§  Atlanta Falcons (Dan Quinn)

§  Tennessee Titans (Mike Mularkey)

§  Washington Redskins (Owner Dan Snidely)

§  Dallas Cowboys (Owner Jerrah Jones)