The NFL in the Moment - Week Two 2017

Welcome to Week Two of the NFL for 2017. Week Two always offers the very best opportunities of the season because no matter how much change, it is human nature to expect a continuation from last season and to write off what happened Week One as Week One anomalies. We try to find the Week Two opportunities.

11/5 Minnesota Vikings   @   Pittsburgh Steelers 5/13
***Bradford is out - Keenum is in***
New Odds - 13/4 Minnesota Vikings   @   Pittsburgh Steelers 2/9
Upon further reflection, this cannot come as a surprise to the Vikings. Zimmer will have no doubt prepared Keenum and with Minnesota's tremendously improved Offensive Line, ole Case gets the chance to show what he can do on a proper team with all the bits. We love the Vikings @ 13/4!!!

This game is a perfect example. The odds reflect a Steelers team that made it to the AFC Championship last season hosting the 8-8 Minnesota Vikings. They are choosing to believe that “the Steelers always play poorly on the road vs bad teams” while the Vikings only beat “the worst defence in the league”. We saw a Steelers team with an unproductive Le'veon Bell that would have lost to Cleveland if not for a blocked punt touchdown. The Vikings meanwhile held the always potent Saints Offence in check all night while Minnesota’s All New Offensive Line performed very well, allowing Sam Bradford to do whatever he wanted to all night long. Alas for the Viking fans, Bradford’s knee started acting up again and you just know it is a matter of when rather than if he goes down for the season. Fortunately, we like Viking’s back-up Quarterback Case Keenum, but do not relish him having to come in off the bench after not practising with the “Ones” during the Week. We did make a small wager on 11/5 Minnesota in the hopes that Bradford makes it to the end of the game.

5/16 Arizona Cardinals   @   Indianapolis Colts 13/5

The Cardinals continue to befuddle us. They lost David Johnson, who is pretty much their entire Offence, for 8–12 weeks, have an over-the-hill Carson Palmer who never was a Top-Shelf Quarterback and were clubbed like a baby seal by the Lions last week. The Colts were these odds last week with Scott Tolzien under center. Arizona has not played like a “good team” since 2015. Jacoby Brissett is a huge step up from Tolzien and the Colts are at home. We could not resist making a small bet on 13/5 Indianapolis.

13/5 Buffalo Bills   @   Carolina Panthers 5/16

Much like Arizona, Carolina has not played like a “good team” since 2015 either. Last week, the Panthers scored two Touchdowns off Turnovers while being held to a couple of Field Goals by the completely rebuilding 49ers Defence. The Panthers Defence kept Brian Hoyer out of the end zone, but San Francisco’s Offence has an equally long way to go. Buffalo used their very good running game to beat the Jets easily, and actually finished with a better record than Carolina last season. These two teams are similar, right down to the Bills new HC/GM duo. We took a small piece of action on 13/5 Buffalo.

5/6 Tennessee Titans   @   Jacksonville Jaguars 1/1

The Titans lost again at home to start the season this year, this time against the Raiders. People are making a lot of assumption about the Raiders that we do not agree with, and it could very well be that the Titans are not that good. We do not know about Mariota, we do not like Mularkey and Eric Decker did not look good last Sunday. On the other sideline, Doug Marrone improved his record as Jacksonville’s HC to 2-1 after dominating the Texans Week One. His other win came at the end of last season when the Jags knocked these very same Titans out of the playoffs. The Jags have a decent Offensive Line allowing them to run the ball with Fournette. We did not play the 1/1 Jaguars straight up this week, but we did get Jacksonville +8 at home for odds of 2/5 in some Alternate Spread parlays.

10/27 New England Patriots   @   New Orleans Saints 23/10
Patriots TE Jacob Hollister is Active for the first time. He can play in the slot and is 6'4" so it will be interesting to see if he gets any snaps there to show what he can do on Offence.

We do not have a feel as to where the Patriots are yet this season. Belichick likes to use September as an extension of training camp so we do not know what to expect this week, and are not missing anything at 10/27.

14/5 Cleveland Browns   @   Baltimore Ravens 5/18

The Ravens looked very good opening day and will almost certainly win, but the price (5/18) is too short.

5/2 Chicago Bears   @   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1/3

The Bears suffered a heartbreaking loss against the Falcons on opening day when the officials missed a hold that cost Chicago the game-winning Touchdown on first down, and then suffered a drop on the goal line by Howard. Tampa Bay missed their start because of the storm. The Bears have a good Offensive Line and a good Defence. The Bucs are still only hype and a wildly inconsistent Winston. We love the 5/2 Bears as our Long Shot of the Week.

21/10 Philadelphia Eagles   @   Kansas City Chiefs 2/5

The Eagles answered the bell on Sunday to down the Redskins after the Chiefs shocked the Patriots last Thursday. Carson Wentz left some points on the table, just missing with speedster Torrey Smith a couple of times, while the Eagles Defence played very well. We believe that Kansas City’s win over New England was a Week One anomaly, and that these two teams are pretty even. We made a big bet on the 21/10 Eagles.

6/1 New York Jets   @   Oakland Raiders 1/9

The Jets could win, but we doubt it very much.

33/20 Miami Dolphins   @   Los Angeles Chargers 10/19

Another game where we have no feel for either team.

20/27 Dallas Cowboys   @   Denver Broncos 23/20

We do not like the Cowboys at all, but they just keep winning with a College Offence and a lousy Defence. We took the Broncos +8 at 2/5 on the Alternate Spread market based on a pretty competent win by Siemian on MNF, and the fact that Denver is at home. We also made a very small straight up win bet on the 23/20 Broncos. We really want to see if Dak Prescott can do it against a premier AFC Defence on the road.

13/2 San Francisco 49ers   @   Seattle Seahawks 1/10

This game will be closer than most people think. The Seahawks Offensive Line made Green Bay’s Defence look fantastic. The 49ers Defence will only get better with experience and the return of Reuben Foster as the year progresses. We are taking the 49ers + 20½ @ 2/5 on the Alternate Spread market because we do not think that Seattle can score more than 20 points today.

6/5 Washington Redskins   @   Los Angeles Rams 5/7 

Jared Goff did more good things last week than he did the entire 2016 season. No one was harder on Goff last season than we were, but no one is happier to see him turn it around either. We are not sure whether Aaron Donald will be an asset or a liability this week, and the Redskin's Defence performed much better than it looks on paper against the Eagles. The score was 22-17 with 1:30 remaining when a dubious strip-sack sealed the game for Philadelphia (it looked like it was going to be overturned on Replay but it was not). As dysfunctional as Washington may be, they still have three years worth of Scot McCloughan draft classes maturing to go along with their established personnel, while the Rams still have a long way to go. 6/5 Washington represents exceptional value in this situation. We will not bet unless we need a late (4:00 pm) game.

13/10 Green Bay Packers   @   Atlanta Falcons 4/6

The late game was the first one we bet, securing Green Bay at 7/5 big before the odds dropped, but we believe that 13/10 still represents excellent value on the Packers. Green Bay is a very streaky team and came out firing on all cylinders while the Falcons should have lost to the Bears but for a terrible non-call by the officials right at the end of the game. We said that Sarkasian would be a complete disaster, and if Week One was any indication, the assessment seems bang-on, but Chicago is not yet getting the respect for their Defence and Offensive Line/Running Game that they deserve. The Bears Defence is likely better than the Packers, so Atlanta should score more at home in a new dome, but the Packers should prove to be the better team tonight in what should be a fire-cracker of a game.

6/4 Detroit Lions   @   New York Giants 10/17

Far too many questions to have a preference here. The Giants are not scoring any points, Matt Stafford always loses to playoff teams on the road, the Giants Defence could be overrated coming off a soft schedule, the Lions Defence looked terrible against the Patriots in the preseason, and so it goes, on and on.