In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games
Here are the five [5] best games to watch and wager on for 2017 Week Six
6/1 Miami Dolphins @ 1/9 Atlanta Falcons
This game is being bet off the board with Atlanta entering “bridge jumper” territory on the overnight and dropping to ten cents on the dollar. There are many reasons for this. Going into the season, many “experts” had the Dolphins making the playoffs again this season, even after “Smokin’ Jay Cutler” blew into town. Unfortunately, hurricane Irma blew in not long after Jay and disrupted the first quarter of Miami’s season more than they would like. With DeVante Parker out, it is time for rookie speed merchant Jakeem Grant (Mighty Mouse) to step up and lay claim to the WR3 spot.
The Dolphins currently own the top Scoring Defence in the NFL, and although they were forced to take their Bye Week in Week One because of Irma, they are still ahead of Denver, who had their Bye Week already as well. We mention this because of the contrast in the odds, with Miami at 6/1 and Denver bet down to 2/13 (at home). Miami’s losses to the Jets and Saints are contributing mightily to their high odds, but the mostly re-built Saints Defence is starting to play as a unit, and we do after all believe that the Jets are going to gibe the Patriots a game (see below).
Atlanta, on the other hand, is the most overrated team in the NFC, and perhaps the NFL, although we believe that one goes to Kansas City. Matt Ryan is NOT an Elite Quarterback, and the only reason he won the MVP last season was that they refused to give the award to Brady because he was suspended. Brady won as many games as Ryan did during the regular season (11), while losing but once, and finished the year with three [3] playoff wins (including the Super Bowl OVER Ryan where Brady did get the MVP) to go 14-1 overall. Ryan ended up 13-6. It was not even close. Atlanta will be missing Sanu today, and Julio Jones is playing but unlikely to be at the top of his game because of his hip.
The Falcon’s Head Coach Dan Quinn is also extremely overrated. Belichick (and/or McDaniels) toyed with him in the second half of the Super Bowl, punctuated by the way the way he manipulated Quinn to put the wrong personnel on the field for both of New England’s two-point tries when a stop on either would have given Atlanta the win. Quinn’s Defence is vastly overrated. Mike Glennon was a missed holding call and/or a drop by Howard away from completing the game-winning drive in Week One in Chicago, and he isn’t even a Starting Quarterback anymore. Teams can run the ball against the Falcons, as shown by Buffalo just last game. Jay Ajayi has another (potential) 200 yard game in him, and today may be the day. It isn’t very often that you get the chance to bet a team you like better than their opponent at 6/1. Just say thank you. Of course, Atlanta can win at home, but I wouldn’t bet on it!
2/9 New England Patriots @ 13/4 New York Jets
The Patriots have long struggled with the Jets in New York. Current Jets HC Bowles is 1-1 since taking over in 2015, and he did that with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Josh McCown is steady, if unspectacular, and Bowles has his young Defence stepping lively. New York has won both of their Home Games so far, putting up 23 points on a smart, equally young Jaguars Defence.
The Patriots meanwhile are uncharacteristically struggling. Although Tom Brady is an impressive 24-8 against the Jets, he has lost in New York two of the past four years, and he hasn’t won by 9 or more points (today’s spread) in New York since 2012. The Patriot’s Nation may believe that New England is going to kill the Jets, but the Patriot Team most probably does not. Interestingly, if Miami does win and New England comes up short, the Patriots will be in last place in the AFC East in October for the first time perhaps since realignment. It will be good for them and may provide the spark they need to start playing with desperation.
5/8 Green Bay Packers @ 7/5 Minnesota Vikings
Both Green Bay Offensive Tackles (Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari) are injured, which is not the time you want to visit your Division’s toughest Defence. Due to Michael Floyd’s suspension, he spent training camp with the “twos” along with the Viking’s Quarterback for this game, Case Keenum. The chemistry that they developed in the summer could be the determining factor in this game. We were expecting Minnesota to debut Stevan Ridley in this game, signed when Dalvin Cook went down. Instead, they cut Ridley. We are hoping that it was because they found something that works better. This may be the last chance to get Minnesota at better than evens without the threat of wasting a week’s preparation on Bradford looming over it, so we are taking it.
7/4 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 10/21 Kansas City Chiefs
Two things are going to happen inevitably, and today is as good a day as any for them to. First, Pittsburgh is going to get past Le’Veon Bell’s holdout this season and Martavis Bryant’s suspension for all of last season. Second, unless you believe Kansas City is going 16-0 with a bashed-up Defence, the Chiefs are going to lose a game. Or five. The schedule was very fortunate for Kansas City, as they got New England and Philadelphia (most probably the toughest opponents along with this game outside of their Division) before either team got rolling (the Patriots are still not rolling). We believe Pittsburgh to be the superior team and bet them when they opened at 9/5.
12/5 Chicago Bears @ 5/14 Baltimore Ravens
The Bears were missing Danny Trevathan when they allowed Case Keenum to score on three of his five drives last Monday. Trubisky looked okay under center, but the Bears are not going to win games with his arm just yet. The Ravens are coming off a win over the tremendously overrated Oakland Raiders which has to be a factor in the odds. We expect a dull, low scoring game in which the Bears have almost as good a chance of winning as the Ravens, that can go either way on the margin of error alone. When you take the odds into account, the Bears are the play. We bet them at 5/2 earlier in the week.
Honorable Mention
8/5 Los Angeles Chargers @ 5/9 Oakland Raiders
We had the Raiders pegged as a 5-11 team going into the season, and nothing has happened to change that assessment (look below for reams about why Oakland is so overrated if you are interested). We thought, on the other hand, that the Chargers would contend for the Division, which they would be if not for the Korean Experiment. The better odds on Chicago and the Wild Fires took us off this game, but it certainly is bettable.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
This is an odd one. If Cassel starts, the Colts are likely to be favored, and we might play Tennessee. If Mariota starts, the Titans will likely be favored, in which case we would play the Colts. We most probably won’t touch it.
No comments:
Post a Comment