Wednesday, October 11, 2017

The NFL in the Moment – Wednesday – 2.30pm EDT – Week Six 2017

Bye Week:  Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks

Hard to tell what is going on in the NFL in general and with New England specifically? The Officials essentially awarded the Panthers a win over the Patriots Week Four, and again over the Lions Week Five, so it is difficult to determine which games are to be decided by which teams plays better Week Six. Our theory is to only play a few games this week, at long odds, until we have better handle on what’s what in 2017.

5/2 Chicago Bears (+6.5)   @   1/3 Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
The Raiders are not a very good team so Baltimore’s victory over them does not mean much. EJ Manuel put up numbers consistent with those put up by Carr, so you cannot ascribe the Raven’s win to that. We have had the Raiders finishing at 5-11 from day one (March 1st), and will not be surprised by a lower win total. What the Raider game may have done is mask the problem of Yanda’s absence from Baltimore’s Offensive Line. That, coupled with the under estimation of Chicago’s Defence because of the under estimation of Minnesota back-up Quarterback Case Keenum’s prowess, makes the Bears (+6.5) an attractive proposition. We see this as a low scoring game.

There are a few things to consider when deciding if you want to take the Bears to win outright. When Chicago’s Offensive Line is intact and somewhat healthy, it is one of the NFL’s finest, so the return of Hroniss Grasu and Kyle Long could re-ignite the Bears run game. Danny Trevathan’s return from suspension is certain to give Chicago’s Front Seven a lift. Bears rookie Quarterback Mitch Trubisky is the Wild Card in all this, but Joe Flacco is languishing at the bottom of all of the Quarterback metrics so the Ravens may not have a big edge there. Turnovers will very likely decide this game, and Baltimore turned the ball over nine [9] times in their first four games. Considering all this, this game is pretty even, so taking Chicago at 5/2 provides an excellent risk/reward ratio.

13/4 Cleveland Browns (+10)   @   2/9 Houston Texans (-10)
The Cleveland Browns appear to remain committed to securing the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, and as such are in no hurry to win a game soon. Looking at the schedules for the Giants, 49ers and Bears, it could be Week Eleven before every other team has at least two wins. This is the only thing to explain why Cody Kessler, the Quarterback who had the best metrics by a massive margin last season, remains affixed to the bench with superglue. Even so, 2/9 is too short of a price to take on Houston. Best to just pass.

10/17 Green Bay Packers (-3)   @   6/4 Minnesota Vikings (+3)
The Vikings continue to play games, at least with the public and the other NFL teams, with who will start at Quarterback. They were very lucky to escape a brutal first half by Bradford in Chicago with a 3-2 lead. Fortunately, for the Vikings, Keenum scored on three of his five second half possessions to eke out the win, which would have been much more difficult had Trevathan not been suspended. Chicago scored on two fluke plays in the second half, which could otherwise have cost the Vikings the game.

The only way the Vikings would be able to beat the Packers would be to install an Offence for Keenum to run, but they appear to be far more concerned about wasting a ton of time trying to get Bradford into the game than anything else. Despite the fact that he was 1-4 against the NFC North last season until a meaningless Week Seventeen win over David Fales (who?), it seems certain that Zimmer is going to continue to waste time on Bradford until, and it is inevitable, he (Bradford) is seriously injured and out for the season.

The Vikings already lost to a very beatable Steelers squad because of this nonsense, and without a leader under center for the players to form a team around, the Vikings are doomed to another lost season under GM Rick Spielman. We cannot advise you to take the Vikings until the situation is resolved, which will be unlikely this season.

The Packers meanwhile have their own problems. Both Offensive Tackles are hurting, whether or not they play, running back is a problem, Nose Tackle Mike Daniels is playing hurt and their Defensive Secondary is very weak. It was all Green Bay could do to beat a not-very-good Cowboys team. Their Bye Week cannot come soon enough for them (Week Eight), and they are vulnerable to the Vikings this week and they Saints next. The NFC North has quickly turned into a mess.

21/10 Detroit Lions (+5.5)   @   2/5 New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Detroit represents the final NFC North member playing this weekend. Coming off a home loss during which two [2] of the oppositions (Carolina’s) three [3] Touchdown drives were abetted with Ineligible Receiver Downfield plays (one of which was a scoring play, which by rule is to be reviewed and therefore unchallengeable) that were not reversed. The team they are playing, New Orleans, is in the same division as the Panthers so if the league is giving Carolina preferential treatment, does this mean the Saints get the other end of the stick? It is a stinking, rotting mess that it is best to stay well away from, at least until we know which way the wind is blowing.

9/2 Miami Dolphins (+11.5)   @   2/13 Atlanta Falcons (-11.5)
Strangely enough, we quite like this game. The Dolphins are 2-2 and are facing a poorly coached, vastly overrated Falcons squad last seen losing to Buffalo. The Falcons should be 1-3 and could be 0-4. Jay Cutler is due to have a decent game. Take the Dolphins at 9/2.

2/9 New England Patriots (-9.5)   @   13/4 New York Jets (+9.5)        
The Jets almost always play the Patriots tough in New York. Over the past four seasons, two games went to overtime where the Jets won outright. The Patriots won the other two games, one by a single point and the other by five points. The Patriots have not covered the spread in New York since the game five years ago, a 49-19 drubbing 11/22/2012. With Brady hurting, the New England Defence in transition and the two teams tied in the standings, we have to go with the 13/4 Jets (+9.5), however improbable that may seem. If you have been backing the Jets the last two weeks as suggested, you are playing with house money.

15/4 San Francisco 49ers (+10)   @   2/11 Washington Redskins (-10)
The Redskin's Defence lost Josh Norman, one of the best players in the league, last game and it will affect their Defence. How much remains to be seen. San Francisco Head Coach Kyle Shanahan will know Kirk Cousins’s shortcomings well, and should have some ideas at least about how to defend against Kirk’s strengths. The 49ers have gone to overtime on the road two weeks in a row. We suggest taking San Francisco 49ers (+10), but to maybe stay away from taking them straight up. Still, at 15/4 you don’t have to bet much. Maybe the Shanahans get some revenge on Dan Snidely. This is certainly the year for it.

10/13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2)   @   11/10 Arizona Cardinals (+2)
Adrian Peterson makes his first start for the Cardinals, which makes this game watchable but not bettable.

5/4 Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)   @   20/29 Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
We can see Blake Bortles crashing against the Rams Front Seven. We can picture Jared Goff beaten to a pulp by the Jaguar’s Defence. No feel for this game either way.

7/4 Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)   @   10/21 Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
By far our best bet of the week. The Steelers have problems, but the Chiefs are perhaps the most overrated team in the league. Bet Pittsburgh (+4) and at 7/4 early and often.

6/4 LA Chargers (+3)   @   10/17 Oakland Raiders (-3)
The Raiders remain the second-most overrated team in the league, but not for long! The Chargers lost both games to Oakland last season by three [3] points and we expect them to return the favor this year. Carr is supposed to be playing, which is unfortunate for the Raiders because there was a chance EJ Manuel would have improved significantly in his second start. Carr is likely rushing himself back because he knows how limited his abilities are and expects to get Wally Pipped at any moment. Take the Chargers (+3) and at 6/4 all week long.

4/1 New York Giants (+11.5)   @   1/6 Denver Broncos (-11.5)
We are very surprised to see such a generous price on Denver, so if you like to bet favorites you should jump on it fast. We expected this game to open at 1/10, but it opened at 1/6 and you can now get 10/53, which does make a difference when you bet big. I know that any team can win any game, but the Giants can’t run the ball against anyone whereas the Broncos have been able to stop everyone. The Giants can’t pass block at Left or Right Tackle, from where Von Miller and company will be rushing with regularity, and both of New York’s Wide Receivers broke bones in their legs last week. Talk about a perfect storm! We never bet massive favorites, but if we ever did, this would be the time.

N/L Indianapolis Colts ()   @   N/L Tennessee Titans ()
No line on this game yet, doubtless awaiting word on whether Mariota starts or not for the Titans. It would be interesting to see Brissett go against Cassel for a new twist on the former Tom Brady back-ups going head-to-head. Last Week, Brissett beat Hoyer in overtime while Cassel lost a squeaker in Miami because of fumbles, one by Murray and the other a strip sack that you could not really blame on Cassel. The Titans vaunted Offensive Line has to play better.

The situation here seems to be the same as the one in Minnesota, but it is not at all. Tennessee would never send Mariota out there in the condition Bradford was in on Monday night, and has already most probably decided who is starting. With the Browns next week and then their Bye Week, Tennessee will go with Cassel. If that is the case, the Colts would likely be favored and we would go with the Titans. If Mariota does start, the Titans would likely be favored, in which case we would pass.



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