Bye Week: Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks
This Cam Newton bullshit is getting out of hand. An extremely weak block-in-the-back penalty killed the Eagles second drive while a totally bogus Pass Interference penalty got Carolina in position to tie it up at 3-3. The Eagles are by far the better team, but we are not confident. Pretty soon you won’t be able to bet any games so no one will watch any games, and the NFL will fade away…
Time to look at the odds for Division Winners, Conference Winners, and Super Bowl Winner, updated to account for 2017 play and significant injuries. We are presenting the Division Winner suggestions in the order that we consider the best opportunity first, second best opportunity second etc.
AFC West Winner
4/6 Kansas City Chiefs 7/4 Denver Broncos
7/1 Oakland Raiders 33/1 Los Angeles Chargers
Now that most of that unjustified hype surrounding the Oakland Raiders has dissipated, we are left with an overachieving Chiefs team favored and a couple of interesting propositions in the Broncos and Chargers. The next four [4] games will be critical for Kansas City. The way that the Chiefs are struggling on Defence, we expect them to lose at least twice, most probably three times and possibly all four. Our amended estimate of Kansas City’s ending record ranges from a best case 12-4 and a worst case 8-8 so we are splitting the difference at 10-6.
Denver has proven to be very tough to beat at home and very vulnerable on the road. Trevor Siemian showed in Buffalo that he still has a long way to go as an NFL Quarterback, and there is no guarantee he will get there. Having already had their Bye Week, the Broncos are going to have to make a decision as to whether Chad Kelly, whom we believe to be their best long-term option under center, starts practicing next week. He would be available to play starting Week Nine in Philadelphia at the earliest. In the interim, the Broncos have two [2] Division road games which, if they lose, could seriously affect their playoff chances. We have them finishing at 9-6 with the result against New England up in the air.
Given the situation, Kansas City is not very good value at 4/6 and your evaluation of Siemian’s ability to win on the road would determine if 7/4 on Denver is a good price. We took Denver at 9/4 before the season, but would not do so now. This is because the Chargers are 33/1 and the landscape could be very different in two weeks. Los Angeles could be 4-1 as easily as they are 1-4, losing two games because of missed Field Goals (they have since changed their Place Kicker) and losing another by two points. They should be 3-2. They absolutely need to beat Oakland and Denver. If they then lose in Foxborough as anticipated, they have to win out to go 11-5 to claim the division outright. We are not betting the Chargers but can see the attraction. The other three teams have serious flaws.
NFC North Winner
3/10 Green Bay Packers 5/1 Detroit Lions
5/1 Minnesota Vikings 250/1 Chicago Bears
As much as we like the Chicago Bears and love the odds of 250/1, because Philadelphia finished in last place in the NFC East last season left the Bears with the toughest schedule in a very good and fairly even division. The Packers are lucky to win games with Left Tackle David Bakhtiari and Right Tackle Bryan Bulaga hurting bad, when the Bears panicked and the luck of the schedule gave them Dallas when they needed an easy win, on the road to boot. The Vikings meanwhile continue to play Quarterback Roulette with Sam Bradford’s knee, and despite the teams wish to go with Keenum whom they believe they can rally around, we have the Christian Ponder situation all over again. Detroit continues to get screwed by the Officials who last week failed to reverse a Panther TD (there was an Ineligible Receiver Downfield call missed) and missed the same call on the play that set-up the Panther’s second TD.
All four teams will have completed their Bye Week going into Week Ten. Our estimate as to where the teams could stand at that point was, before Monday Night:
Minnesota Vikings 6-2
Green Bay Packers 5-3
Chicago Bears 3-5
Detroit Lions 3-5
We thought the Viking’s acquisition of Stevan Ridley was a great move. Since his ACL/MCL injury, he has only had 39 carries and is still only 28-years-old. Although he may have lost his burst to get around the edge, that is not what the Vikings need from him. The need him to blast it up the middle for four [4] yards-per-carry to ensure an eight-man box on first and second down. This will open up the play-action game for Diggs. If the Vikings stick with Keenum all the way up to the Green Bay game and design the proper game plan, they can win on Sunday. They get the Ravens at home before going to Cleveland, both of which they should have won, but of course, everything is now up-in-the-air with the Bradford situation, so who knows?
NFC South Winner
11/10 Atlanta Falcons 15/8 Carolina Panthers
6/1 New Orleans Saints 6/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It looks like the Saints finally have the competitive team they need to return to dominance, but with the Officials awarding Carolina wins trying to make Cam Newton something he is not, and giving Atlanta more breaks than can be reasonably explained, it is hard to bet the Saints. They represent fantastic value at 6/1 in this group.
AFC South Winner
17/10 Houston Texans 2/1 Jacksonville Jaguars
9/4 Tennessee Titans 14/1 Indianapolis Colts
The Injuries in Houston, the inconsistencies in Jacksonville, and the underwhelming performance of Tennessee make this the most competitive Division right now. Jacoby Brissett is as effective as any other Quarterback in the Division, and when Andrew Luck returns is a few weeks he will tower over the rest, so 14/1 on the Colts is looking attractive in the moment.
NFC East Winner
4/9 Philadelphia Eagles 7/2 Dallas Cowboys
9/2 Washington Redskins 80/1 New York Giants
The loss of Josh Norman blows a pretty large hole in the Redskins attempt to overtake a very well-balanced Eagles squad that we envision winning the NFC. Their return head-to-head match Week Seven in Philadelphia without Norman could put the Division out of reach.
AFC North Winner
2/5 Pittsburgh Steelers 7/2 Baltimore Ravens
5/1 Cincinnati Bengals 500/1 Cleveland Browns
The reports of the Steelers demise will prove to be entirely premature. We expect them to knock off the Chiefs this weekend as part of their turnaround.
NFC West Winner
1/4 Seattle Seahawks 5/1 Los Angeles Rams
13/2 Arizona Cardinals 500/1 San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks could have been had this year, but the Rams and 49’ers still are a year away, while Arizona is a couple of years past it. IF Adrian Peterson can turn it around for the Cardinals, it will be very surprising.
AFC East Winner
1/12 New England Patriots 7/1 Buffalo Bills
33/1 Miami Dolphins 33/1 New York Jets
The Patriots too could have been had this season, but no one was ready for it. Until they lose this Division, they own it.
AFC
13/8 New England Patriots 3/1 Kansas City Chiefs 6/1 Pittsburgh Steelers
9/1 Denver Broncos 20/1 Jacksonville Jaguars 20/1 Oakland Raiders
22/1 Houston Texans 22/1 Tennessee Titans 25/1 Baltimore Ravens
28/1 Buffalo Bills 33/1 Cincinnati Bengals 40/1 Miami Dolphins
66/1 Indianapolis Colts 66/1 Los Angeles Chargers 200/1 New York Jets
1000/1 Cleveland Browns
The Patriots are gunning for their seventh straight AFC Championship berth, which we will continue to grant them until they miss. We can’t see anyone seriously challenging them at this point.
NFC
3/1 Green Bay Packers 9/2 Atlanta Falcons 5/1 Seattle Seahawks
13/2 Philadelphia Eagles 12/1 Carolina Panthers 12/1 Dallas Cowboys
16/1 Detroit Lions 18/1 Minnesota Vikings 20/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22/1 Washington Redskins 25/1 Los Angeles Rams 25/1 New Orleans Saints
50/1 Arizona Cardinals 150/1 New York Giants 200/1 Chicago Bears
500/1 San Francisco 49ers
The NFC is a completely different story. Mike McCarthy is a lousy coach who finds a way to miss the Super Bowl every year (except once). Atlanta is poorly coached and has a suspect Defence. Seattle’s Offensive Line will be their downfall. We like the Eagles at 13/2 as our main selection. Minnesota is their own worst enemy but would have a shot if they settled on a Quarterback and Running Back at 16/1, but history says that won’t happen. The Redskins could get hot as a Wild Card at 22/1 and if the Saints somehow get a fair shake and win the NFC South, 25/1 would be lovely.
Super Bowl
4/1 New England Patriots 6/1Green Bay Packers 7/1 Kansas City Chiefs
10/1 Atlanta Falcons 10/1 Seattle Seahawks 12/1 Philadelphia Eagles
12/1 Pittsburgh Steelers 20/1 Denver Broncos 22/1 Carolina Panthers
25/1 Dallas Cowboys 40/1 Detroit Lions 40/1 Jacksonville Jaguars
40/1 Minnesota Vikings 40/1 Oakland Raiders 50/1 Baltimore Ravens
50/1 Los Angeles Rams 50/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50/1 Tennessee Titans
50/1 Washington Redskins 66/1 Buffalo Bills 66/1 Houston Texans
66/1 New Orleans Saints 80/1 Cincinnati Bengals 100/1 Los Angeles Chargers
150/1 Arizona Cardinals 150/1 Indianapolis Colts 150/1 Miami Dolphins
250/1 New York Giants 500/1 Chicago Bears 500/1 New York Jets
2500/1 Cleveland Browns 2500/1 San Francisco 49ers
Philadelphia at 12/1, Minnesota at 40/1 and Washington at 50/1 could be fun.
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