How Thing Truly Are: NFL Week 5 - 2013

Primary Selection

1) 10/06/13 - (12/5) Detroit (+6.5) AT (1/2) Green Bay (-6.5)

Green Bay is still favored to win the NFC North however every team they have played thus far has put up points as the Packer defence appears to be a little more suspect than usual this season. With Jenkins gone and Finley hurting Aaron Rodgers has to deal with a lot of double coverage limiting his effectiveness. Reggie Bush looks to have the Lions finally playing near their potential as a loss to Arizona (Palmer?) is their only loss so far this year having beaten Chicago, Washington and Minnesota (with Ponder at QB). We see Detroit as having improved and Green Bay as having declined . These teams play each other twice every year and do not like each other. 

Selection:   (12/5) Detroit Lions (+6.5) 


Secondary Selections

2) 10/06/13 - (10/11) New Orleans (+1.5) AT (10/11) Chicago (-1.5)

Chicago beat Cincinatti, Minnesota (with Ponder at QB) and Pittsburgh to open the season 3-0 but fell back to earth last weekend against the Lions. Cutler is once again reverting to form throwing 3 picks and fumbling in the end zone. Brees was outstanding on Monday night as the Saints put Miami in their place and should win this one with relative ease.

Selection:  (10/11) New Orleans Saints (+1.5)

2) 10/06/13 - (1/1) New England (+1.5) AT (5/6) Cincinnati (-1.5)

The Bengals only managed a FG per half last week as the Browns dismantled them led by Brady's former back up Brian Hoyer. On Sunday Cincinnati gets to face Brady himself who is gaining comfort with each start as his rookie receivers get in sync. The New England defence has been playing very well and could be tested without having Wilfork however Vellano has been playing great.  The Patriots may also get a veteran receiver back this week. It is amazing to get New England as the underdog 2 consecutive weeks, especially when they are undefeated.

Selection:  (1/1) New England Patriots (+1.5)

Tertiary Selection(s)

3) 10/06/13 - (5/7) Seattle (-2.5) AT (6/5) Indianapolis (+2.5)

Seattle had last weeks game against Houston handed to them by Texan QB Matt Schaub who threw a pick 6 well into Seahawk territory with 2:47 left in the game and was ineffective in overtime to remain undefeated after 4 games. The Colts meanwhile moved to 3-1 by dismantling the 49'ers and Jags in succession. Bradshaw has been running the ball like a beast for Indy and Andrew Luck is starting to outpace the rest of the young quarterbacks. The Colts are unlikely to give the Seahawks, a much better home team than road team, much at home and figure to break Seattles streak at 4 games.

Selection:  (6/5) Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

3) 10/06/13 - (1/3) Denver (-7.0) AT (5/2) Dallas (+7.0)

The Broncos came out at full speed on day one of the season and have had their way so far with every team they have faced however those teams have a collective record of 4-12 so that isn't too surprising. Dallas on the other hand has struggled to 2-2 as Romo continues to baffle everyone as to what he will do next. He was outplayed by a resurgent Philip Rivers in San Diego last week but was one point shy of taking KC into OT and being 3-1. This game will likely be Denver's biggest test so far this season and although the Broncos look unbeatable on paper this is why they actually play the games. We see Romo as rising to the occasion, as he often does, and beating Denver pretty near 50-50 and at 5-2 this represents tremendous value. This is exactly the kind of game Romo will win before losing to a much lesser club leaving one scratching their head.

Selection:  (5/2) Dallas Cowboys (+7.0)  

3) 10/06/13 - (12/5) Houston (+6.5) AT (5/14) San Francisco (-6.5)

This game would have been one of our top picks except for Houston QB Matt Schaub, who threw a pick 6 well into Seahawk territory with 2:47 left in last week's game and was ineffective in overtime, as his career dwindles. Schaub never did become the elite passer he wanted to be, was never allowed to call plays or even change one at the line, as he was/is the Achilles heal that brought down all of the strong Texan teams he has played on. Kaepernick hasn't played much better this year, in fact both teams are 2-2, with Colin playing well for about 15 minutes against the terrible St. Louis Rams after generating only 10 points in the Niners previous two games.  If Schaub can play smart for 60 minutes the Texan's defence should do the better job of the 2 teams and secure the win.  Although from a different aspect than the game above, the game could go either way making 12-5 very good value.

Selection:  (12/5) Houston Texans (+6.5)

Other Selection(s)

10/03/13 - (17/10) Buffalo (+4.0) AT (1/2) Cleveland (-4.0)

Buffalo's defence played really well and EJ Manuel played well at times as the Bills picked off Flacco 5 times and beat Baltimore last week. Cleveland however has been on fire since replacing Weeden with former New England back up Brian Hoyer. Hoyer is an excellent game manager with a decent arm trained by Bill Belichick whereas Manuel is a pretty green rookie with many physical gifts but has a lot to learn. The Browns defence, OLine (hence running game) and receivers are all very good and will pose a challenge to the Bills also very good defence but Hoyer is much more seasoned and will make the difference so 1-2 is a fair price in this situation.

Selection:  (1/2) Cleveland Browns (-4.0) 


10/06/13 - (1/2) San Diego (-4.0) AT (17/10) Oakland (+4.0)

Oakland is self destructing yet again as this week the coach (I think - Does it matter?) made a very public statement about taking Matt Flynn out of the rotation and placing him third on the depth chart.  The Raiders were up 14 zip until they lost BOTH running backs and Flynn's numbers looked decent.  Sure he fumbled a few times but what can you expect from a guy who has been sitting on the bench for 6 years? Matt is guaranteed $11 million over the this year and next so likely doesn't much care what the Raiders say. Meanwhile Philip Rivers has the fire back in his eyes like he did when he took San Diego to the post season beating the Cowboys last week after just failing to hold off Tennessee the week before to sit at 2-2. We see San Diego winning handily hence 1-2 is a good price. 

Selection:  (1/2) San Diego Chargers (-4.0) 

10/06/13 - (20/29) Kansas City (-2.5) AT (5/4) Tennessee (+2.5)

We were leaning towards Tennessee until finding out Locker was out for a few weeks and a definite scratch for this tilt as the Titans were off to a great start however seeing how well Buffalo is doing with a raw rookie like EJ Manuel after floundering badly for years behind Locker's replacement Fitzpatrick evidences what is coming for Tennessee. Fitzpatrick may very well be the best, bar none, QB at snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.  It is ironic that Fitzpatrick, a confirmed loser gets to start in the NFL while Tim Tebow, a bona fides winner can't even land on a roster.  Kansas City has made the most out of a very kind schedule (their 4 opponents so far are a collective 3-13 and include 2 0-4 teams) and look to continue their winning ways down in Nashville. Andy Reid and Alex Smith have been doing the most they can with what the Chiefs have and the result is very positive. In this situation 20-29 is a very fair price.

Selection:  (20/29) Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)


10/06/13 - (10/13) Carolina (-2.0) AT (11/10) Arizona (+2.0)

Arizona, 2-2, somehow beat the Lions in week 2 handing Dtroit their only loss so far this year after losing to the brutally bad Rams and did manage to beat the winless Buccaneers after getting blown out by the Saints however Pete Carrol's selection to start at USC over Matt Cassel , that is Carson Palmer, has had a perennially disappointing 11 year career after being first overall pick in 2003 holding a 56-69 record plus two wild card appearances, both losses, and a QB ranking in the mid 80's. Carolina, 1-2, lost to Seattle and Buffalo by an aggregate of 6 points before shutting out the Giants 38-zip, as QB Cam Newton, who made a big splash as a rookie, looks to redeem his reputation in his third year. The Panthers have the better defence and most probably the better team and coming off their bye week we expect them to be hungry therefore we believe 10/13 to be eminently fair and the Panthers to win fairly easily. 

Selection:  (10/13) Carolina Panthers (-2.0)

Longshot Selection - WOOF WOOF GO 

10/07/13 - (7/2) New York (+9.0) AT (2/9) Atlanta (-9.0)

The Falcons were well beaten by the Patriots, the Dolphins.and the Saints beating only a poor St. Louis Rams team to finish the first quarter of the season 1-3.  Last weeks game against New England could have just as easily ended 41-17 as 30-23 and they now face yet another AFC East team in the Jets. New York's rookie QB Geno smith has been alternating hot and cold and was positively freezing last week doing his best mark Sanchez impression with a behind-the-back move, well attempt, that you must see the film of to truly appreciate as the Jets got thumped by the Titans 38-13. New York still has a good defence, a better record and Smith is due for a good game so 7-2 is a wonderful price for our sole long shot pick of the week.

Selection:  (7/2) New York Jets (+9.0)  

Games to Avoid

10/06/13 - (9/2) Jacksonville (+11.0) AT (1/6) St. Louis (-11.0)

Jacksonville could easily be the worst team in the league whereas St. Louis isn't much better. Taking the Jaguars to win is ludicrous meanwhile getting 1-6 on St. Louis is insane. Certainly one to stay away from.

10/06/13 - (13/10) Baltimore (+3.0) AT (4/6) Miami (-3.0)

Both teams in this match are pretty good. Flacco threw 5 interceptions last week while Miami lost for the first time getting overwhelmed by New Orleans. We cannot tell which way either team will go so we pass.

10/06/13 - (11/10) Philadelphia (+2.0) AT (10/13) New York  Giants (-2.0)

These teams appear to be equally bad this year. Eli Manning is playing terrible and Michael Vick is playing like Michael Vick. It does not seem skilful to back the Giants until they win a game and it does not seem skilful to back Philadelphia with Vick under center. Once again we cannot see either team.