The NFL at this Moment - Week 11

NFL WEEK 11

BYE WEEK:  RAVENS, COWBOYS, JAGUARS, JETS

Week 10 was not kind to us at NFL Buddha. Expecting any kind of continuity with Joe Philbin's Dolphins or Kyle Orton (which our friend Laura pointed out going in) proved to be pure folly. We did not get any love out west or in London as the Raiders could not keep up with the Broncos past the middle of the second quarter while across the pond Tony Romo did in fact play and the Jaguars got trounced. Had it not been for the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night we would have struck out completely in the AFC.

Over in the NFC, we got unlucky in Arizona (yet another game our friend Laura had on the money) where the Rams led 14-10 until midway through the fourth quarter when they injured Carson Palmer, making a huge mistake as his replacement, Drew Stanton, with much help the comedy of errors that is known as the Ram's offence, put up 21 unanswered to seal the win. The Rams would have been much better off sticking with Palmer and sitting on his overdue second (2nd) interception. 

Moving on to Week 11 and the return of the Patriots and Texans et al there are some very good looking games to play as the importance of each game grows as teams jostle for position around the far turn and get ready for the stretch run. New England will be revving up for a December to remember as they face a run of seven (7) games against six (6) teams with records above 0.500 (at least, as of now) including the (presently) 7-2 Detroit Lions, the Packers and the Chargers. The Lions have New England and Arizona coming up, the Packers have the Eagles and Patriots, San Diego has a couple of confidence builders before getting an extremely brutal five (5) game stretch to finish out the season (@Ravens/Patriots/Broncos/@SF/@KC) and so it goes, on and on. The playoff picture should be much clearer after the next three (3) weeks starting with Week 11:

AFC East

It was looking as if the AFC East could supply three (3) teams to the post season going into last weekend until reality set-in. Joe Philbin is a lame-duck coach and Ryan Tannehill is a mediocre QB still depending on the read-option well into his third season. Kyle Orton showed why he is not starter material as he was off the mark all day and missed by quite a bit with what seemed like ten (10) shots (it was actually only 9) at throwing the game-winning TD from the doorstep only to fail miserably. The Jets found life a week earlier than expected as Michael Vick, still shaking off the rust, knocked the Steelers out of first place while the Patriots sit at home scheming about how to run the table.

We absolutely love New England this week, playing indoors, against what we believe to be the most over-rated team in the AFC, the Indianapolis Colts however there is a huge caveat here. The Colts' record is inflated and, based on anecdotal evidence, it certainly looks as if the NFL is trying to manufacture a super-star in Andrew Luck by calling the penalties that sustain Colts drives and stall the opposition’s, especially at Lucas Oil Stadium. The 27/20 Patriots own the 21/30 Colts since Manning got dumped by them (a real class act that Isray), most recently 43-22 in a game Brady didn’t even have to rev it up a Blount ran for 166 and four (4) TD’s while Ridley punched in another two (2).

We expect New England to dominate from start to finish however given the aggressive nature of the Patriots defence and the propensity of the officials to “assist” shall we say Luck one must refrain from betting the house on New England @ 27/20.

The 21/10 Buffalo Bills visit 2/5 Miami Thursday night and as per above both teams have big problems. In cases like these we always take the odds.

Best Bet: Bet the New England Patriots @ 27/20 with both hands

Bet the Buffalo Bills @ 21/10

AFC North

The Cleveland Browns are in first place at 6-3 with Josh Gordon returning to action next week. This week the 4/7 Browns host the 31/20 Houston Texans who are expected to start recent acquisition Ryan Mallett, the next member in the “Can Brady’s Former Back-Up be a Viable Starter” contest as two of Tom’s former understudies duke it out in Cleveland. At 9-3 as a starter, Hoyer has already achieved that status. Mallett has never started. In fact, Tom’s new understudy, Jimmy Garoppolo, has thrown for more yards (92) in nine games than Mallett did (17) in three and a half years. In a nutshell, we anticipate Mallet getting clobbered in his first start however after such a big win last week will the Browns bounce? We don’t think so but are not taking 4/7 to find out.

The Ravens are enjoying their bye week, the 11/4 Bengals are down in the Big Easy to play the 2/7 New Orleans Saints while 5/13 Pittsburgh visits 11/5 Tennessee on MNF in a game to avoid as the price is  too short on Pittsburgh and Titans are too bad to bet. 11/4 Cincinnati is very unpredictable at the moment but we expect a big effort to follow the Brown’s Beat Down at a nice price. New Orleans is bound to be gutted after San Fran’s DB put on an academy award performance to negate Graham’s outstanding TD catch to win the game that they lost on a call that could have serious ramifications come the post season to end the Brees/Payton 42 game winning streak in the dome. It is obvious that the league wants San Fran in the playoffs so bear that in mind when you are inclined to bet against them (the 49ers).

Bet the Cincinnati Bengals @ 11/4

AFC South

We have already gone against Indianapolis and fully expect Ryan Mallett to get clobbered in Cleveland, Charlie Whitehurst to be bowled over in Nashville while Jacksonville is mercifully on their Bye Week.

Take a pass on the AFC South

AFC West

Am I the only one bored to death by the Denver Broncos and the AFC west in general? They win, but does anybody care when we know come playoff time Brady or Roethlisberger or Rivers or somebody win trash them soundly so long as the weather gets nasty? This week the Payton Manning Show is on location in St Louis where Jeff Fisher and his 7/2 St. Louis Rams will serve up a win for the 1/5 Broncos by starting Shaun Hill who hasn’t won a game since 2010 when he went 3-7 throwing to Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson etc.

 In other exciting news, the 1/6 San Diego Chargers host the 4/1 Oakland Raiders who may very well be on their way to a 0-16 season however we do not think so. San Diego has been known to lose games like this one, in fact they lost to a similar Raider squad last year. The Raiders are coming up to a win and we feel this could be the one. The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t so much beat Buffalo last week as Orton missed, and missed by a mile, 9 throws very close to the KC goal line and Bryce Brown fumbled out the back of the end zone to turn the ball over to the Chiefs. This week the 4/5 Chiefs host the 21/20 Seahawks in a game that should come down to defence and as such we cannot bet KC.

Bet the Oakland Raiders @ 4/1

NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys are on their bye while the 23/10 Philadelphia Eagles led by Mark “The Butt Fumbler” Sanchez travel to Lambeau to engage with the 10/27 Green Bay Packers. This could be a playoff preview if Sanchez can keep his interceptions down so given the discrepancy in the odds we must go with the percentages and take the Eagles. The 2/7 Washington Redskins host the 11/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers who could start a little winning streak here (We have zero interest in betting Washington @ 2/7). That leaves the 17/10 Giants hosting the 1/2 San Francisco 49ers, who just had a game handed to them. We expect Aldon Smith to need a game and the San Francisco team to skip a beat here and for Eli Manning to step up and take the win!

Bet the Philadelphia Eagles @ 23/10

Bet the New York Giants @ 17/10

NFC North

As per above, we have gone against the 10/27 Green Bay Packers as Mark Sanchez and the 23/10 Philadelphia Eagles come to town. Despite being the highest number on the board, we see this game going over the 54 ½ points posted. We are expecting Sanchez to play the best game of his life.  It is hard to believe, but the Chicago Bears are favored despite giving up 106 points in their last two games. To put this into perspective, New England has given up 109 in their past five games going back to Week 5. The 20/23 Bears are favored over the 29/20 Vikings despite losing every home game so far this year. Minnesota meanwhile is coming along under Mike Zimmer. Despite losing his starting Pro Bowl QB Minnesota has now won two (2) in a row and is coming of their bye as Bridgewater is playing smart and not turning the ball over, Asiata is finding the End Zone and the defence is playing well.

11/10 Detroit pulls into Arizona riding a 4 game winning streak with Calvin Johnson back in the fold (Calvin made a TD catch last week that only he could have made) to face the 10/13 Arizona Cardinals and back-up QB Drew Stanton in a battle between the NFC’s first and second seeds. Normally we would take the odds and go with the Lions but this is another game like the one last week where we expect both teams to melt in the heat of the playoff race. This week we expect the Lions to begin their skid. Last week Detroit could have lost to Miami – This week the Lions will lose to Arizona.

Bet the Minnesota Vikings @ 29/20

NFC South

Oh, woe is me say the New Orleans Saints who had a victory snatched out of their hands by the officials last week losing their first game in 42 under Payton/Brees but lookout! Here it come again – The 11/4 Cincinnati Bengals are coming to town to redeem themselves after getting thumped by the Browns at home and we believe that they will. 1/1 Atlanta visits 5/6 Carolina in a game we find impossible to handicap as both teams are too inconsistent to predict an outcome while the 11/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit 2/7 Washington where we expect them to pull the upset. Griffin is now by far the worst QB in the league so we expect Josh McCown to play a steady, mistake free game, to hit Mike Evans in a crunch and to ward off anything Griffin can muster.

Bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 11/4

NFC West

The NFC West has San Francisco going into New York where we expect the Giants to hold serve and come through with their fourth win of the season simply by having the Giant receivers hold on to the ball instead of dropping it. If Manning gets rid of the ball quickly a la his brother he can negate the 49er pass rush and come out a winner. The 7/2 Rams host the 1/6 Broncos who keep on going like the Energizer Bunny until they have to play on the road in January. The 10/13 Cardinals have the 11/10 Detroit Lions coming to town and while we expect the Cardinals to win we aren’t betting on it (except in our parlay maybe) and the 21/20 Seattle Seahawks roll in to take of the 10/13 Chiefs at Arrowhead where we expect the Seahawks to run over the Chiefs.

Bet the Seattle Seahawks @ 21/20