NFL 2015 Week Three Comments

Some notes and observations going into Week Three. First of all, although the Dallas Cowboys don’t officially have a General Manager, no one seriously believes that Jerrah does any of the footwork. They likely have some sort of committee that assembles the data from which Jones makes the final selections however as he gets older and older he likely leans on the “suggestions” more and more. No one can argue that the Cowboys do not have a very deep roster so Mr. Jones has been getting very good advice indeed. No team expects their franchise quarterback to go down but it does happen. It was interesting therefore this week after Romo went down with a broken collarbone that Dallas went straight out and grabbed the quintessential back-up QB in Matt Cassel. While much ado has been made about Matt needing time to learn the playbook, as a back-up on a team as well put together as Dallas all Cassel really needs to learn is a core of about five personnel groups and the various plays that can be run off of them. The Cowboys have a very good offensive line and will be able to run the ball and, more importantly, use that running game to set up Cassel’s best weapon, the play-action pass. Hard to know who hos go-to guy will be with Bryant out. Too bad Miami signed Cassel’s favorite target in recent years, Greg Jennings. The Dolphins are paying him an awful lot to do very little and would probably trade him quite readily. Let’s see what happens when Brandon Weedon loses his first game. While a number of “experts” have that being to the Falcons this weekend, it could come next week instead in New Orleans. Something to keep an eye on….

Why do people continue to rank Russell Wilson as a top quarterback? Last week there was never any doubt that the Packers were going to win despite a shaky run defence. Moving Clay Matthews to middle linebacker has helped and although it was great to get their former NT BJ Raji back. Green Bay lost Josh Boyd last week and still the Seahawks could not run the ball. Yes, Seattle’s offensive line is questionable, making the Max Unger trade less easy to understand, but the reason the Packers were able to stop Lynch was because they loaded up the box daring Wilson to beat them with his arm. He couldn’t do it, capping it off with yet another game-ending interception. For those counting, Wilson has now thrown 7 interceptions in his last 4 games. His contract may ultimately supplant Jay Cutler’s as the worst in the history of professional sport. Speaking of Cutler, his team visits Seattle Sunday with Jim Claussen under center as Cutler foolishly hurt himself while unsuccessfully trying to defend one of his interceptions…

On the upside, Cam Newton has dragged the Panthers to a 2-0 start despite unimpressive stats (we agree with Belichick that the only stat that means anything is in the “W” column). It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the wheels to fall off however it is worth noting that Newton is 5-1 and Carolina is 7-1 going back to last season. Other teams surprisingly 2-0 are Atlanta and the NY Jets. Both teams could be for real after each jettisoned inept, or at least ineffective, head coaches but the Jets defence looks positively scary now that they have a proper coach and secondary. Many were touting the Bills to give New England a run for their money this year, which might have happened if Rex Ryan would have been content with Matt Cassel, however with Ryan instead going with Car Part (Tyrod Taylor) and the Bills subsequently giving Cassel to Dallas the Jets have emerged as the Patriots co-leader in the AFC East, Ryan Fitzpatrick and all. It will be interesting to see come December, if Romo suffers setbacks with his broken collarbone, what happens when Cassel and the Cowboys visit Orchard Park at the Ralph with play-off spots on the line. Will the Bills still be relevant? Will EJ Manuel replace Tyrod? Will Rex Ryan ever shut up?

On the downside, many are perhaps surprised by the 0-2 Seahawks, Colts and Ravens (all play-off teams in 2014) however all three teams have glaring weaknesses that were taken advantage of by New England in the post season giving their opponents a virtual blueprint for victory. The Raven’s loss of Suggs could be fatal but they simply do not have the offensive horses. The Seahawks were covered off above leaving the Colts. Many people are blaming Ryan Griegson for the Colt’s failure to address their needs on both lines and defence in general but Chuck Pagano has got to carry that weight as well.  The Patriots have been forced to use three rookies in the middle of their offensive line yet the juggernaut carries on notwithstanding. Indeed, we cannot remember any extended period of time that the Patriot’s offensive line has been a liability during the Belichick reign and the reason for that is very simple: Effective Coaching. At one point New England had a guy who did not even play college football (he was a wrestler) so it is as much on Pagano for not having a simple system and good teachers in place as anyone. Players like Malcolm Butler don’t happen by themselves. What he must have learned from Revis last year could propel him to becoming the best corner in the league some time fairly soon.

An equally compelling story are Bruce Arians and the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer was never a top-ten quarterback yet he is certainly playing like one now. Using the same core talent that Wisenhunt went 5-11 with before he got run out of town Arians coaxed a 10-6 record out of his first year. Last year’s 11-5 could have easily been 12-4 with a possible play-off run if Arians had not run out of quarterbacks with two weeks left in the season. He went and got Matt Barkley in the off-season in an effort to ensure the Cardinals do not suffer the same fate this season. With Todd Bowles, Arizona’s very good defensive coordinator last year, taking over the Jets we shall see if that defence continues to play as well as it has and if Carson Palmer can make it through the season (unlikely).

With all the fanfare about Tebow and Barkley in Philly, it turns out Chip Kelly did not go with either one, instead letting Barkley go to Arizona, cutting Tebow and quietly signing one of our favorite unheralded quarterbacks in Thaddeus Lewis, one of those “mobile” black QB’s with a cannon for an arm. As Sam Bradford struggles and rumors of the butt fumbler perhaps taking over for the Eagles circulate it may be worth noting that Lewis is the much better fit for Kelly’s offence than either of them. Something has to give in the city of brotherly love as Eagles fans get restless very easily.

So it turns out that the AFC East could very well be the best division in the NFL, with only little sister Miami losing to a non-divisional opponent thus far. Drawing the NFC East this year, currently composed as Brandon Weedon and the Cowboys, the struggling Eagles as above, an inconsistent at best Washington Redskins and the erratic New York Giants, it isn’t hard to imagine the AFC teams sweeping the series. The other division that the AFC East drew this year is the AFC South where Jacksonville and Tennessee have been very weak of late yet stand above the Colts and the Texans thus far with the Jaguars beating Miami already. It is entirely possible that the Dolphins finish last in the division with a winning record of 9-7 while the rest of the division goes to the post season much like the AFC North did last year when the too drew the AFC South although they got (a very weak) NFC South instead. Buffalo may have thrown out the baby with the bathwater already by committing to Car Part and shopping Cassel to Dallas due to Rex Ryan’s utter inability to not mess things up.

Can Jacksonville win the AFC South this season? Based on their win last Sunday over Miami one might believe so. It is not as though Tannehill gift-wrapped the win either, putting up a passer rating of 108 while throwing for over 350 yards. Miami still has weak offensive line as a leftover from the Jonathan Martin debacle which resulted in their inability to run the ball while the Jaguars rushed for a decent 123 yards (so much for Donkey Kong Sue). The Jaguars get a reality check this week in Foxborough where the Patriots are favored by 14 ½ points and Tom Brady is a real threat to throw for over 400 yards again. Nothing good can come from the back-biting going on in Indy, the Texans don’t have a quarterback and Tennessee looks like they are going to lose a lot of games this year again so 9-7, well within Jacksonville’s range, could win the division.

The Steelers fell behind the Patriots by too much in the first half of the season opener but have been on fire since, scoring 18, 29 and 14 in each succeeding half. The Ravens are seriously lacking in firepower and the Browns are mollycoddling Johnny Football too much and the Bengals are still coached by Lewis and still have Andy Dalton under center. If Cinci loses to Baltimore this Sunday we will know that it is business as usual. Pittsburgh gets Levion Bell back this weekend and are favored on the road in St. Louis but have road games later in the season in Seattle, San Diego and Kansas City which could leave them at 12-4 at the end of the season.

Over in the AFC West it is hard to tell what is what. Denver has totally changed after saying farewell to John Fox and going with Kubiak and Phillips. The last time those two were running the show, Houston also won their first two games before losing the final 14 games of the season. Peyton Manning would seem to be the odd man out here in a scheme much better suited to a young stud. The Chargers lost a road game in Cincinnati last week to fall to1-1 and are, as always, a hard read. They have the Browns at home next week after visiting Minnesota this week where if they are able to shut down Adrian Peterson and force Teddy Wobblyballs to throw for the victory the Chargers could prevail and finish the first quarter at 3-1 if they hold serve at home against Cleveland. Kansas City had the Broncos down 24-17 in third and long with under a minute and a half left but somehow managed to lose 31-24 to repeat a prevalent bad habit of losing key games late by being unable to hold on. The Raiders are turning out to be a pleasant surprise gutting out a good looking win over the Ravens to go to 1-1 and face Josh McCown this week and Jimmy Clausen next in two very winnable road games. All four teams could finish the first quarter of the season at 3-1 in a suddenly wide open division.

The NFC is an entirely different kettle of fish. The implosion of the Eagles and the loss of Tony Romo leave the NFC East devoid of Super Bowl material while the NFC North has a very good Green Bay Packer squad, a consistently inconsistent Detroit Lions, a Minnesota Vikings team that somehow ended up with another first round QB misfire and a Chicago Bears crew that is at least a year away from challenging anyone. The Falcons are enjoying a resurgence in the torpid NFC South where Tampa is once again rebuilding and New Orleans is stuck with a terrible defence with an even worse defensive coordinator meanwhile Carolina is 2-0 off of two uninspiring wins over the Jaguars Week One and the Texans Week Two. In the NFC West Arizona has finally taken over, St. Louis is going nowhere and neither is San Francisco while Seattle brings up the rear. With the Seahawks unlikely to finish any better than 10-6 a Wild Card is their only likely play-off chance. It doesn’t look like the Packers will be denied a trip to the Super Bowl this season where as of right now it looks like they would meet New England.