The NFL in the Moment – Tuesday – 9:55am EST – Week Twelve 2017

We had an amazing week with our three primary selections (Minnesota, New England, and Philadelphia) all scoring 24 or more points while giving up less than 10 points, allowing us to cash all of our Alternate Spread bets. Our Woof Woof Go Longshot of the Week, the 13/4 New York Giants, also came through. We really liked the Week Eleven card of games, unlike the Week Ten and Week Twelve cards. We have made out very well on Thanksgiving in the past, so are hoping that more research will make us feel better about the games.

The NFL in the Moment – Tuesday – 9:45am EST – Week Twelve 2017

What do the Bills, Browns, Colts (sort of), Texans (sort of), Cowboys, Packers (sort of), Panthers, Tampa Bay (sort of) and Seahawks all have in common? The employ Black Men who have started at the Quarterback position this season. In years past, the answer would have jumped into everyone’s head automatically. But the world has changed from the days when HOF Quarterback Warren Moon had to go out to the frozen wasteland of Edmonton in the Canadian Prairies and win a handful of Grey Cups to get an offer to play under center in the NFL.

Quarterbacks of Color no longer carry the stigma they once did, but there is no way Buffalo would have experienced such a significant backlash this past weekend if Tyrod Taylor was White or Nate Peterman was Black. I was very surprised that the issue remains so charged. In my world, we evaluate teams based on what they have and what we believe that they lack. There is no room for racism when we make a decision to bet, or not bet, on or against any team. Racism has pissed me off ever since I was a little kid (I am white).

LeGarrette Blount is my favorite current NFL player. Ernie “The Big Cat” Ladd is my all-time favorite player. Doug Williams made me a ton of money when he won the Super Bowl for the Redskins, as did Jim Plunkett with the Raiders in 1980. Out of the current crop of young Quarterbacks, it is hard not to put Carson Wentz on top. After Wentz though, we like Jacoby Brissett a lot more than Goff, Prescott and the rest of the young ‘ins. When Andrew Luck returns next season, Brissett will be an improvement for a number of teams while he continues to learn. I’d love to see what a guy like Kyle Shanahan could do with Jacoby.

All of this leads up, finally, to our point, which is really very simple: The NFL must stop trying to “make” Cam Newton into an MVP caliber Quarterback. It is not a good idea and is frankly embarrassing. Linebackers key on Offensive Linemen. Once an Offensive Lineman advances beyond the Line of Scrimmage, the Linebacker knows that the play is a run and he doesn’t have to worry about coverage. Except for Carolina.

Touchdowns are supposed to be reviewed, so the three TD’s that I have watched the Panthers score with Ineligible Players downfield that were not reversed point to a concerted effort by the NFL to force the issue. The league needs to let it go. Jacoby Brissett or some kid still in school will win MVP because he deserves it, not because he happens to be Black.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 11.45am EST – Week Eleven 2017

Well. If you are still betting you must still have money. I’ve been working a day job so I don’t have the time to spend 40 hours per week doing this. We did have a good run there.

***UPDATE*** Danny Trevathan is OUT for the Bears

Week Eleven are the final Bye Weeks for 2017, three of the four going to last place teams from 2016 (Jets, Panthers, 49ers and Colts), whatever that means. Cam Newton is involved, so it means something. Here are the games we are betting, and coincidentally (not really) watching in order:

1pm EST TV – FOX – 21/20 Los Angeles Rams   @   4/5 Minnesota Vikings

Bullish Spread:  Minnesota Vikings    -7.0   @   7/4

Bearish Spread: Minnesota Vikings   +3.5   @   2/5

4.25pm EST TV – CBS – 5/16 New England Patriots   @   13/5 Oakland Raiders

Bullish Spread:  New England Patriots     -13.0   @   7/4

Bearish Spread: New England Patriots     Not Offered

Other Games of Interest

13/4 Washington Redskins   @   2/9 New Orleans Saints  

The odds on this game are not correct. Washington can play with any team in the NFC and should not be 13/4 while the Saints seem to have everyone under some type of WhoDoo that VooDoo spell.

21/20 Atlanta Falcons   @   4/5 Seattle Seahawks

The injury to Kam Chancellor is very unfortunate for Seattle however it plays right into Atlanta’s hand, much like last weeks injuries to Sean Lee and the Cowboys Left Tackle.

10/17 Detroit Lions   @   6/4 Chicago Bears

If Danny Trevathan is starting for Chicago we will bet them. He is as important to Chicago as Sean Lee is to Dallas etc.

4/5 Baltimore Ravens   @   21/20 Green Bay Packers

13/5 Buffalo Bills   @   5/16 Los Angeles Chargers 

The real NFL schedule starts around now. Rosters are set. Looking at the AFC and the schedules of the potential Wild Card teams, despite their apparent struggles, the Ravens are in the driver’s seat so long as they win the games they are supposed to. The Bills could be a Wild Card in the Wild Card race. Most “experts” are at a loss for words concerning the Buffalo situation. We aren’t. CarPart stinks. He never does anything bad. He never does anything good. In short, he never does anything, which is precisely the problem. McDermott needs to beat Tom Brady, not go 8-8, and he knows he’s not beating Tom Brady with Taylor. Opponents the Packers and Chargers had high hopes coming into the season. Hundley will be trying to hold the fort for Aaron Rodgers while Flacco is fighting for his playoff life. Peterman makes his first start in Los Angeles where Philip Rivers is slipping. The attractive price on the Bills?

6/5 Cincinnati Bengals   @   5/7 Denver Broncos

Neither team is out of the Wild Card race mathematically, nor are their schedules too demanding. If Brock Osweiler can play just a little bit better than he did against the Patriots, Denver could win their next five games to sit 8-6 going into Week Sixteen. Cincinnati’s schedule is more demanding, but not impossible.

2/9 Kansas City Chiefs   @   13/4 New York Giants

One must remember just how close the talent level amongst NFL teams is before writing off this game to the Chiefs. There is no reason that the Giants can’t win this game.  Always remember that any team can win any game.

6/5 Arizona Cardinals   @   5/7 Houston Texans

After all the drama, Arizona is only one game out of the hotly contested NFC Wild Card race. Blaine Gabbert is one of the better third string Quarterbacks. Adrian Peterson cold be the difference here.

Other Games

2/7 Jacksonville Jaguars   @   11/4 Cleveland Browns      

10/13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers   @   11/10 Miami Dolphins

                   

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 10am EDT – Week Eleven 2017

We have been away for a while. To catch you up real quick:

We essentially did not report for weeks Eight, Nine and Ten and never recapped Week Seven. The Bears made the day for us Week Seven, coming thru at 5/2 coupled with the Patriots dismantling of the Falcons. We also won on the Vikings (over the Ravens) and the Eagles (over Washington) for a third straight good week.

Week Eight was not so good, starting with our Ravens getting shut out 40-zip. We did win on New England, but Washington and Denver let us down. Fortunately, the damage was minimal.

We did not like the card of games for Week Nine. No Patriots, Bears, Steelers or Vikings games due to byes. We played the Jets and Redskins but managed to lose back our profits on forgettable bets.

Week Ten was similar, however, we looked at Week Eleven with hope as the Eagles and Raiders were on bye weeks. We gave ten and one-half points to get the Patriots at a decent price in Denver and were all over the Vikings. The Colts and Chargers stabbed us in the heart as both lost games they should have won. The Chargers were especially bad. We ended the weekend with a profit, but it was highly unsatisfying.

And now, on to the bitter end...

The NFL in the Moment – Saturday – 5.20am EDT – Week Nine 2017

The NFL in the Moment – Saturday – 5.20am EDT – Week Nine 2017

Sorry about missing last week. I was out with a herniated muscle in the ribcage, which if you don’t know, is one of life’s most painful gifts. We did not pick well as the result. Here’s what we bet:

Single

30 Oct 2017 - Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs - Money Line

Denver Broncos @ 11/4

Single

29 Oct 2017 - Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks - Money Line

Houston Texans @ 5/2

Single

29 Oct 2017 - Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins - Money Line

Washington Redskins @ 11/10

Single

29 Oct 2017 - Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets - Money Line

New York Jets @ 12/5

Single

29 Oct 2017 - Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints - Money Line

Chicago Bears @ 13/4

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 12.45am EDT – Week Seven 2017

Long Week - Very Tired

Top Five

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
New England Patriots

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
New York Jets

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers

The NFL in the Moment – Saturday – 11am EDT – Week Seven 2017

It will be nice when the NFL has more than one set of games in Europe so that they can add a Saturday morning game. We do not bet NCAA Football because the necessary information just does not exist yet. It was nice to have guessed correctly on the Raider’s win, but seeing how it ended makes us wonder if the Officials had been mandated to ensure that Oakland won the game. When one considers how little Rob Gronkowski has to do to generate an Offensive Pass Interference call when it suits the Officials: (Open Link in New Tab)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onzqTKHpm_U

Now, juxtapose that with Amari Cooper’s first Touchdown:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2017101900/2017/REG7/Chiefs@Raiders?icampaign=scoreStrip-globalNav-2017101900#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000864063&tab=videos

It is interesting to note that in the first clip you can tell that Solomon Wilcots is not a Gronk fan, and he says that Gronk initiates the contact during the third example, which clearly he does not. Curiously, the word “initiate” is not once used in the entire section on Pass Interference in the NFL. If you are interested, we added a page that we copied directly from the 2017 NFL Rulebook (we even left the grammatical errors in it) verbatim (upper right Pages Menu) so that you can read the actual rules and judge for yourself.

Jonathan Jones of the New England Patriots has looked pretty good at Cornerback for the most part since Rowe and Gilmore went out, but Julio Jones and Sanu are on an entirely different level than the Robbie Andersons of the NFL, not to take anything away form the Jets good, young receiver mind. Fortunately (for the Patriots), neither Jones nor Sanu will be at 100% for SNF, nevertheless they will still be a handful. It’s too bad that RFA David Jones is still languishing on the Practice Squad after being held up in Training Camp with nagging problems, since at almost 6’4” with good speed Jones could compete with Jones on those high throws.

This game could end up being a very high scoring affair, but we can’t see the Falcons turning things around enough to beat the Patriots. Philip Dorsett almost broke out last week, when Brady underthrew him twice on deep balls, but will break through very soon. If he does so this week, Brady will score even more frequently against the not-so-good Atlanta Defence. Adding another burner in Dorsett to Cooks and Gronkowski, with Amendola’s sure hands and James White’s versatility out of the backfield, would allow Brady to take it to the next level. We have never seen that level, which makes it so exciting.

The return of Adrian Peterson is pretty exciting itself, forcing teams to defend Arizona entirely different and taking a ton of pressure off Carson Palmer. Larry Fitzgerald benefits greatly from the new arrangement, which has already inspired the Cardinals Offensive Line to perform at a higher level. Much like the positive domino effect Bowman had on the Raiders when he came aboard, the Peterson acquisition could have the same effect on Arizona and elevate the play of the entire team.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 4pm EDT – Week Seven 2017

Bye Week: Houston Texans, Detroit Lions

What a difference a week makes. After two week’s of crazy odds, (most other people called them crazy results) where we cleaned up at outstanding prices, it looks like the entire heavy favorite bettor brigade is broke and the opportunities to take advantage of the anomalies they created are long gone. Whatever the actual cause, the bottom line is that there are far fewer games that we like this weekend. It is important to resist the urge to reach in such situations.

20/33 Kansas City Chiefs (-3)   @   7/5 Oakland Raiders (+3)

We have written reams below about how we believe that Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders were extremely overrated and that we had them finishing at 5-11 in our most likely scenario. The problem is that in our evaluation, we had the Raiders winning one of the two Division games at home in Weeks Six and Seven and they lost to the Chargers Week Six. The acquisition of Navarro Bowman could have a bigger effect than many anticipate. Bowman has been outstanding against the run over his career, and if the Raiders can funnel Hunt to the middle of the field, they may have success slowing him down. He is too good to stop.

Kansas City remains the most overrated team in the NFL, but there is no longer very much conviction behind the support. This is evidenced by the odds. Just last week Kansas City was 10/23 to beat the 9/5 Pittsburgh Steelers at one point. If you factor in the difference between Pittsburgh and the Raiders and Home/Away, the equivalent odds for this week would be in the neighborhood of 10/33, so support for the Chiefs is definitely wavering. Given the state of Kansas City’s Offensive Line, Defence, and dependence upon trick plays, they are certainly a team that can be had. We just cannot justify betting the Raiders straight up at such a short price, so we bet a small Double onto a game we really do like, the London game.

6/4 Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)   @   5/9 Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) in London, UK

This is one of the few games we really like this weekend. Without getting into a million stats, there are reasons that the Rams are 4-2 this season that have nothing to do with Sean McVay or the erroneous perceived dramatic turnaround from Jared Goff. Goff posted a Passer Rating of under 50 against Seattle and was not much better in Jacksonville where he passed for a mere 124 yards. This is not the 2015 Ram’s Defence, and Wade Phillips is not a very good Defensive Coordinator. The Colts and Cowboys Defences are terrible. San Francisco was cheated out of the game-winning Field Goal by a bad call. The Rams are vastly overrated.

Arizona, on the other hand, looked like a team re-born last week. Adrian Peterson is a true difference maker, bringing 9 men into the box often and setting up excellent play-action opportunities. Much was made in the media about how Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to score some points in the second-half last week. In the first place, Fitzpatrick hasn’t made 116 NFL starts because he has no ability. When he is on, Fitzpatrick plays like a top-16 Quarterback. Jameis Winston is not even an NFL-caliber Quarterback. The problem with Fitzpatrick is that he is only on some of the time, and is prone to drastic swings evfen in the same game. As well, Tampa scored their final two TD’s when the game was essentially over and Arizona was trying to drain the clock. The Bucs has no real chance of winning. We bet Arizona straight up and took a double off of the Raiders.

8/5 New York Jets (+3)   @   5/9 Miami Dolphins (-3)      

The Jets were victims of a couple of bad calls last week, both of which had a significant impact on the outcome of the game. They are a team without any glaring weaknesses, are well coached, and are playing good football. The Dolphins were our 6/1 Top Bet last week. We have the teams as roughly even, but figure Josh McCown will outplay Cutler as he did when they were both with Chicago. The Jets are our bet here.

11/5 Baltimore Ravens (+5.5)   @   5/13 Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)      

We are big supporters of Case Keenum, but this is a bad match-up for him. The way to beat the Ravens is to pound it out on the ground, which is Minnesota’s biggest weakness. McKinnon was able to run against the Bears, but only because Danny Trevathan was suspended. Baltimore is more than capable of winning on the road. This game could very well determine whether Minnesota makes the postseason (they have a very tough second half of the season during which Teddy Bridgewater will be losing games). We definitely don’t like the Viking at 5/13, but we can’t bet the Ravens either. Have to pass here.

2/5 Tennessee Titans (-5.5)   @   21/10 Cleveland Browns (+5.5)       

Cleveland is not going to waste all the hard work they have gone through to lose every game so far, but the may be forced to play Kessler and win. Pass.

5/11 New Orleans Saints (-4)   @   9/5 Green Bay Packers (+4)

The Saints most probably win here with Rodgers gone for the season but are not an attractive proposition at 5/11. We have no idea if Hundley will be any good now that he will be properly prepared. Another pass.

5/9 Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)   @   8/5 Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Colts Defence is absolutely dreadful. Jacksonville just lost at home to a very bad Rams team. Nothing to bet here.

10/17 Carolina Panthers (-3)   @   6/4 Chicago Bears (+3)

It is pretty funny when Goodell drones on about “the integrity of the NFL” – The NFL has no integrity, as evidenced by the favoritism the league has been showing Cam Newton. Last week we had to sweat out a very narrow victory by a far superior Eagles squad. The Bears should be able to run the ball down Carolina’s throat, but we are not going through that again. Pass.

6/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)   @   10/17 Buffalo Bills (-3)

The problem with this game is the Quarterbacks. They both are not NFL caliber. Pass.

2/5 Seattle Seahawks (-3)   @   21/10 New York Giants (+3)

We very much want to take the Giants here, but Trevor Siemian is so anemic that we are not sure we can trust what we saw from them last week. Undecided on this one for now.

         

21/10 Cincinnati Bengals (+3)   @   2/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Pittsburgh has probably turned the corner on their season, but so it seems has Cincinnati. We are passing on this one as well.

EVS Denver Broncos   @   5/6 Los Angeles Chargers

We were expecting Denver to be favored here. The spread is Pick ’Em. We agree. There is little to choose between the two teams, although a point could be made about the Chargers momentum. Nevertheless, we pass.

8/5 Atlanta Falcons (-3)   @   5/9 New England Patriots (+3)

We are expecting the Patriots to burn away the last vestige of the betting public’s inaccurate assessment of Atlanta, and curiously New England’s price of 5/9 is the absolute lowest that we allow ourselves to wager on (1/2 or less is out-of-bounds for us). What we will probably do is bet any winnings we have from this week on New England because this is the late game, provided the odds do not deteriorate. We are betting a New England-Philadelphia Double to keep it interesting. WARNING: This is not sound wagering advice.

19/10 Washington Redskins (+4.5)   @   10/23 Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

We can almost bet Washington here. After playing four of their first six games on the road and going 5-1, the Eagles start a three-game homestand. Washington is most probably the toughest of the three visiting teams. A win here sets them up to go into their Bye Week at 8-1 (or 7-2 at the very least) with the NFC Top Seed firmly in their control. That is a lot of pressure for second-year Quarterback Carson Wentz. We are betting a New England-Philadelphia Double, but will otherwise leave the game alone.

The NFL in the Moment – Wednesday – 11.45pm EDT – Week Seven 2017

Cam Newton is ranked as #23 by PFF. His Passer Rating is #22 in the league. In the New England game, a penalty on Gilmore that could not be verified on replay (you can’t tell if his hand comes up or Funchess just snaps his head back to draw the penalty, but you can see by the speed at which Gilmore’s hand was moving that the minimal force that it would have generated does not correspond to the actual head movement). The Panthers, exactly like four years ago, get another undeserved win over the Patriots.

The following week against Detroit, the Officials neglect to call Ineligible Receiver Downfield. Twice. The first one resulted in a Touchdown, which meant Detroit could not challenge (see pictures in older post), while the second one set up a Touchdown. Last week in Philadelphia, the Officials did everything that they possibly could to give the game to the Panthers, but Newton chokes so badly under pressure that he kept throwing interceptions. In something we have never, ever, seen in a real NFL game, the Eagles were penalized ten times for 126 yards, the Panthers once for one yard. Based on the way the game was played, the penalties should have been roughly even.

How can this be? More importantly, what does it mean to us as bettors? As we saw when Newton made his “apology” for some remarks to a reporter, the man has the IQ of a houseplant. He is not smart enough, and most certainly lacks the necessary mental toughness, to be an NFL caliber Quarterback. Last season, the only players he finished ahead of were Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick, as Jared Goff did not make the requisite starts to finish last. Quite simply, Newton is the NFL’s Great Black Hope as they try to attract Basketball fans to prop up sinking television ratings. The NFL’s propaganda machine, NFL.com, has no interest in the facts of the matter. They just issued their QB Index with Newton at #7.

The bottom line is that the fix is in. The Eagles win last week was the least enjoyable game I have ever watched my entire life, and remember that I won my bet at 7/5. I would love to take the 6/4 Bears at home this weekend, but I cannot trust the NFL. No one said turning a profit would be easy.

The NFL in the Moment – Wednesday – 2pm EDT – Week Seven 2017

This weekend, Minnesota and Philadelphia are 2/5 at home, but both Offensive Coordinators have been making mistakes that they have been getting away with. Case Keenum has been a veritable goldmine for us (2015 in Seattle @5/2, 2016 in LA vs Seattle @ 5/2, 2017 vs Green Bay and Tampa Bay), but Shurmur has gotten way too predictable. If you watch the tipped-ball interception Green Bay made closely:

Martinez Tip

You will notice that Packer MLB Martinez pays zero attention to McKinnon and Rudolph. Keenum is looking right at McKinnon, but Martinez is creeping back to jump the slant that he knows is coming. Keenum should have gone to Rudolph.

In Philadelphia, Frank Reich is taking way too many chances with Wentz. He has only had Blount, who is an outstanding blocker, on the field 31% of the time. Blount should be out there at least twice as frequently, which would ensure an 8-man box at least, and prevent the opposition from doubling more than one Wide Receiver. Wentz is still too excitable and has too many balls sailing high.

As it stands, Philadelphia is the most complete team in the NFC, and with the injury to Rodgers, Minnesota should be number two but they don’t have a Running Back the caliber of Blount. You can tell by the way that they refused to get Adrian Peterson back in the fold that they do not have the correct mindset for big-time success. Instead of rallying behind the adequate Keenum, who was wonderful in tandem with Todd Gurley in 2015, and getting the right Running Back, they keep trying to force Bradford in the lineup. Now, Teddy Bridgewater is returning to practice. The Vikings are 4-2 and just caught the break of a lifetime with Rodgers going down for the season. McCarthy is nowhere near a good enough Head Coach to do what Belichick and McDaniels did with Garoppolo.

The NFL in the Moment – Monday – 10.05pm EDT – Week Six 2017

4/5 Indianapolis Colts   @   10/11 Tennessee Titans

We ran out of time as we had to post before Kick-Off. The Colts are up by 4 at the half, and as expected, the Colts are winning because Brissett is playing better than Mariota. With the Hamstring, Mariota is not a threat to run. As a pocket passer, Mariota in nowhere near as polished as Cassel. Although neither Head Coach is “Elite” (there’s that word again), Pagano is is significantly more with it. Indianapolis OC Rob Chudzinski is the better play-caller, but without a rapport with his Wide Receivers, Brissett should be running more in the red zone, or at least handing it off. If Mariora truly can’t run, he should not be in there. Both Defences are playing poorly and undisciplined.

The NFL in the Moment – Monday – 8.25pm EDT – Week Six 2017

It was enjoyable watching the Giants win last night. As we have previously stated (below, in several places), the Giants play much better without Odell Beckham.  Play calling is an art, and good play calling requires a tremendous amount of feedback so as to get into the flow of the game. McAdoo may have been a good play caller in the past, but as a Head Coach he simply does not have the time to focus on the job at hand. Tomorrow, we will do a write up about betting, coaching and Quarterbacks to explain why what is happening this season is happening the way that it is.

23/10 Indianapolis Colts (+7)   @   7/20 Tennessee Titans (-7) 

We never have been on the Mariota bandwagon. On the other hand, we have liked Jacoby Brissett from day one, and have seen steady improvement. We have an inkling that Brissett has some degree of “it”, the thing that makes some Quarterbacks significantly better than the rest of the pack, and just have a feeling that he is going to be the next Warren Moon (we think Deshaun Watson is the next Robert Griffin, a story for another day). PFF has Brissett graded at #13 and Mariota at #19, and Brissett has a slightly higher Passer Rating. Tonight, we expect the Quarterback who plays the best to win, and believe that Brissett is ready to break out after his first 300-yard game last week. Despite having 25 more starts, Mariota also has but on 300-yarder. It is only fitting that the favorite lose this game as well, so we bet the Colts at 5/2 this morning.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 10:15pm EDT – Week Six 2017

What a day! For the second consecutive week, we went 6-1 on our main picks. The only bet we lost was the one on the Jets, and that game would have gone to Overtime if not for the “worst call of the day" (according to Rodney Harrison at least) that wiped a perfectly good Jets Touchdown off the board.

12/5 New York Giants   @   5/14 Denver Broncos   

We never did bet on the Chargers. This week they won on the last play of the game, but you may as well play roulette. After watching the first quarter of the Giants game, during which we learned that McAdoo finally gave up trying to call the Offence, and with the Giants up by three [3] points, we checked the in-game market. So many people bet Denver (they were 2/15 the last we checked before kick-off), New York was still 12/5 so we bet a three-quarter stake on the Giants. The Broncos may still win (17-3 at the half), but this illustrates perfectly why we don’t bet favorites.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 10am EDT – Week Six 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

Here are the five [5] best games to watch and wager on for 2017 Week Six

6/1 Miami Dolphins   @   1/9 Atlanta Falcons

This game is being bet off the board with Atlanta entering “bridge jumper” territory on the overnight and dropping to ten cents on the dollar. There are many reasons for this. Going into the season, many “experts” had the Dolphins making the playoffs again this season, even after “Smokin’ Jay Cutler” blew into town. Unfortunately, hurricane Irma blew in not long after Jay and disrupted the first quarter of Miami’s season more than they would like. With DeVante Parker out, it is time for rookie speed merchant Jakeem Grant (Mighty Mouse) to step up and lay claim to the WR3 spot.

The Dolphins currently own the top Scoring Defence in the NFL, and although they were forced to take their Bye Week in Week One because of Irma, they are still ahead of Denver, who had their Bye Week already as well. We mention this because of the contrast in the odds, with Miami at 6/1 and Denver bet down to 2/13 (at home). Miami’s losses to the Jets and Saints are contributing mightily to their high odds, but the mostly re-built Saints Defence is starting to play as a unit, and we do after all believe that the Jets are going to gibe the Patriots a game (see below).

Atlanta, on the other hand, is the most overrated team in the NFC, and perhaps the NFL, although we believe that one goes to Kansas City. Matt Ryan is NOT an Elite Quarterback, and the only reason he won the MVP last season was that they refused to give the award to Brady because he was suspended. Brady won as many games as Ryan did during the regular season (11), while losing but once, and finished the year with three [3] playoff wins (including the Super Bowl OVER Ryan where Brady did get the MVP) to go 14-1 overall. Ryan ended up 13-6. It was not even close. Atlanta will be missing Sanu today, and Julio Jones is playing but unlikely to be at the top of his game because of his hip.

The Falcon’s Head Coach Dan Quinn is also extremely overrated. Belichick (and/or McDaniels) toyed with him in the second half of the Super Bowl, punctuated by the way the way he manipulated Quinn to put the wrong personnel on the field for both of New England’s two-point tries when a stop on either would have given Atlanta the win. Quinn’s Defence is vastly overrated. Mike Glennon was a missed holding call and/or a drop by Howard away from completing the game-winning drive in Week One in Chicago, and he isn’t even a Starting Quarterback anymore. Teams can run the ball against the Falcons, as shown by Buffalo just last game. Jay Ajayi has another (potential) 200 yard game in him, and today may be the day. It isn’t very often that you get the chance to bet a team you like better than their opponent at 6/1. Just say thank you. Of course, Atlanta can win at home, but I wouldn’t bet on it!

         

2/9 New England Patriots   @   13/4 New York Jets

The Patriots have long struggled with the Jets in New York. Current Jets HC Bowles is 1-1 since taking over in 2015, and he did that with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Josh McCown is steady, if unspectacular, and Bowles has his young Defence stepping lively. New York has won both of their Home Games so far, putting up 23 points on a smart, equally young Jaguars Defence.

The Patriots meanwhile are uncharacteristically struggling. Although Tom Brady is an impressive 24-8 against the Jets, he has lost in New York two of the past four years, and he hasn’t won by 9 or more points (today’s spread) in New York since 2012. The Patriot’s Nation may believe that New England is going to kill the Jets, but the Patriot Team most probably does not. Interestingly, if Miami does win and New England comes up short, the Patriots will be in last place in the AFC East in October for the first time perhaps since realignment. It will be good for them and may provide the spark they need to start playing with desperation.

         

5/8 Green Bay Packers   @   7/5 Minnesota Vikings

Both Green Bay Offensive Tackles (Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari) are injured, which is not the time you want to visit your Division’s toughest Defence. Due to Michael Floyd’s suspension, he spent training camp with the “twos” along with the Viking’s Quarterback for this game, Case Keenum. The chemistry that they developed in the summer could be the determining factor in this game. We were expecting Minnesota to debut Stevan Ridley in this game, signed when Dalvin Cook went down. Instead, they cut Ridley. We are hoping that it was because they found something that works better. This may be the last chance to get Minnesota at better than evens without the threat of wasting a week’s preparation on Bradford looming over it, so we are taking it.

7/4 Pittsburgh Steelers   @   10/21 Kansas City Chiefs    

Two things are going to happen inevitably, and today is as good a day as any for them to. First, Pittsburgh is going to get past Le’Veon Bell’s holdout this season and Martavis Bryant’s suspension for all of last season. Second, unless you believe Kansas City is going 16-0 with a bashed-up Defence, the Chiefs are going to lose a game. Or five. The schedule was very fortunate for Kansas City, as they got New England and Philadelphia (most probably the toughest opponents along with this game outside of their Division) before either team got rolling (the Patriots are still not rolling). We believe Pittsburgh to be the superior team and bet them when they opened at 9/5.

12/5 Chicago Bears   @   5/14 Baltimore Ravens    

The Bears were missing Danny Trevathan when they allowed Case Keenum to score on three of his five drives last Monday. Trubisky looked okay under center, but the Bears are not going to win games with his arm just yet. The Ravens are coming off a win over the tremendously overrated Oakland Raiders which has to be a factor in the odds. We expect a dull, low scoring game in which the Bears have almost as good a chance of winning as the Ravens, that can go either way on the margin of error alone. When you take the odds into account, the Bears are the play. We bet them at 5/2 earlier in the week.

Honorable Mention

8/5 Los Angeles Chargers   @   5/9 Oakland Raiders        

We had the Raiders pegged as a 5-11 team going into the season, and nothing has happened to change that assessment (look below for reams about why Oakland is so overrated if you are interested). We thought, on the other hand, that the Chargers would contend for the Division, which they would be if not for the Korean Experiment. The better odds on Chicago and the Wild Fires took us off this game, but it certainly is bettable.

Indianapolis Colts   @   Tennessee Titans

This is an odd one. If Cassel starts, the Colts are likely to be favored, and we might play Tennessee. If Mariota starts, the Titans will likely be favored, in which case we would play the Colts. We most probably won’t touch it.

The NFL in the Moment – Saturday – 9.30pm EDT – Week Six 2017

The pertinent facts in this moment…

11/2 Miami Dolphins   @   1/8 Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are not a very good team. They should have lost to Chicago and Detroit and there was a lot of nonsense at the end of the first half vs Green Bay concerning rub routes at the end of the first half. Matt Ryan was a bogus MVP. Miami has a lot of the parts on Defence. Jay Cutler can play every bit as well as Matt Ryan. Thee teams are about the same. The odds are way out of whack. Atlanta should be a mild favorite at home. We bet Miami.

9/5 Detroit Lions   @   5/11 New Orleans Saints

These teams are also very close. The Saints probably have a slight edge and are at home, but 5/11 is too strong of a favorite for us to bet them.

4/1 San Francisco 49ers   @   1/6 Washington Redskins  

No one knows the effect of Washington losing Josh Norman and their Defence may have already been playing over their heads. 1/6 is far too short a price.

2/9 New England Patriots   @   13/4 New York Jets

Todd Bowles is 1-1 vs Belichick in New York, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets are gaining confidence, McCown is a much better Quarterback than he gets credit for and the Jets Offence is developing an identity. The Patriot’s Defence is a shambles, their Offensive Line is leaky, Edelman is missing while Brady and Gronk will be playing hurt. New England misses Blount more than anyone realizes. You’d have to be crazy to take 2/9. We bet the Jets.

13/4 Cleveland Browns   @   2/9 Houston Texans  

Even though we are almost positive that Cleveland is trying to lose, nope.

12/5 Chicago Bears   @   5/14 Baltimore Ravens    

The Bears get Trevathan back and Kyle Long most probably. Chicago is not getting enough credit for hanging in with the Vikings while Baltimore is getting way too much credit for beating the Raiders. This is another game that could go either way, yet the odds differential is huge. We bet the Bears.

6/10 Green Bay Packers   @   7/5 Minnesota Vikings       

At least we understand the odds here. The Packers are getting too much credit for beating a bad Dallas squad while Bradford and Diggs are out for Minnesota. We thought that the performances of Stevan Ridley and Michael Floyd will determine the outcome, not Case Keenum. As long as Keenum continues to play within himself and doesn’t turn the ball over against yet another weak secondary. Minnesota’s Defensive Superiority should offset the drop off from Rodgers to Keenum. The game Shurmur calls needs to be run-heavy up the middle will the ball sprayed around to Treadwell, Floyd, and Thielen. Releasing Ridley because of one good game by McKinnon is just plain stupid, like most Vikings personnel decisions on Offence. We bet the Vikings.

23/20 Los Angeles Rams   @   20/27 Jacksonville Jaguars

The odds are right. Good Luck!!!

4/5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers   @   21/20 Arizona Cardinals

Tampa remains overrated. Maybe Adrian Peterson makes a huge difference in Arizona. Nothing to bet here.

7/4 Pittsburgh Steelers   @   10/21 Kansas City Chiefs    

We aren’t buying what the Chiefs are selling and believe they are the most overrated team in the AFC. We got 9/5 when betting the Steelers earlier this week.

33/20 Los Angeles Chargers   @   10/19 Oakland Raiders

We thought the Chargers were the better team going into the season and nothing has happened to change that evaluation. The Wild Fires are a Wild Card so we haven’t bet the Chargers yet.

4/1 New York Giants   @   1/6 Denver Broncos

We don’t bet big favorites but if we did we’d bet Denver.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

If Mariota plays and the Titans are favored, we will probably bet on the Colts

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 9pm EDT – Week Six 2017

Bye Week:  Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks

This Cam Newton bullshit is getting out of hand. An extremely weak block-in-the-back penalty killed the Eagles second drive while a totally bogus Pass Interference penalty got Carolina in position to tie it up at 3-3. The Eagles are by far the better team, but we are not confident. Pretty soon you won’t be able to bet any games so no one will watch any games, and the NFL will fade away…

Time to look at the odds for Division Winners, Conference Winners, and Super Bowl Winner, updated to account for 2017 play and significant injuries. We are presenting the Division Winner suggestions in the order that we consider the best opportunity first, second best opportunity second etc.

AFC West Winner

4/6 Kansas City Chiefs    7/4 Denver Broncos

7/1 Oakland Raiders    33/1 Los Angeles Chargers

Now that most of that unjustified hype surrounding the Oakland Raiders has dissipated, we are left with an overachieving Chiefs team favored and a couple of interesting propositions in the Broncos and Chargers.  The next four [4] games will be critical for Kansas City. The way that the Chiefs are struggling on Defence, we expect them to lose at least twice, most probably three times and possibly all four. Our amended estimate of Kansas City’s ending record ranges from a best case 12-4 and a worst case 8-8 so we are splitting the difference at 10-6.

Denver has proven to be very tough to beat at home and very vulnerable on the road. Trevor Siemian showed in Buffalo that he still has a long way to go as an NFL Quarterback, and there is no guarantee he will get there. Having already had their Bye Week, the Broncos are going to have to make a decision as to whether Chad Kelly, whom we believe to be their best long-term option under center, starts practicing next week. He would be available to play starting Week Nine in Philadelphia at the earliest. In the interim, the Broncos have two [2] Division road games which, if they lose, could seriously affect their playoff chances. We have them finishing at 9-6 with the result against New England up in the air.

Given the situation, Kansas City is not very good value at 4/6 and your evaluation of Siemian’s ability to win on the road would determine if 7/4 on Denver is a good price. We took Denver at 9/4 before the season, but would not do so now. This is because the Chargers are 33/1 and the landscape could be very different in two weeks. Los Angeles could be 4-1 as easily as they are 1-4, losing two games because of missed Field Goals (they have since changed their Place Kicker) and losing another by two points. They should be 3-2. They absolutely need to beat Oakland and Denver. If they then lose in Foxborough as anticipated, they have to win out to go 11-5 to claim the division outright. We are not betting the Chargers but can see the attraction. The other three teams have serious flaws.

NFC North Winner

3/10 Green Bay Packers    5/1 Detroit Lions

5/1 Minnesota Vikings    250/1 Chicago Bears

As much as we like the Chicago Bears and love the odds of 250/1, because Philadelphia finished in last place in the NFC East last season left the Bears with the toughest schedule in a very good and fairly even division. The Packers are lucky to win games with Left Tackle David Bakhtiari and Right Tackle Bryan Bulaga hurting bad, when the Bears panicked and the luck of the schedule gave them Dallas when they needed an easy win, on the road to boot. The Vikings meanwhile continue to play Quarterback Roulette with Sam Bradford’s knee, and despite the teams wish to go with Keenum whom they believe they can rally around, we have the Christian Ponder situation all over again. Detroit continues to get screwed by the Officials who last week failed to reverse a Panther TD (there was an Ineligible Receiver Downfield call missed) and missed the same call on the play that set-up the Panther’s second TD.

All four teams will have completed their Bye Week going into Week Ten. Our estimate as to where the teams could stand at that point was, before Monday Night:

Minnesota Vikings 6-2

Green Bay Packers 5-3

Chicago Bears 3-5

Detroit Lions 3-5

We thought the Viking’s acquisition of Stevan Ridley was a great move. Since his ACL/MCL injury, he has only had 39 carries and is still only 28-years-old. Although he may have lost his burst to get around the edge, that is not what the Vikings need from him. The need him to blast it up the middle for four [4] yards-per-carry to ensure an eight-man box on first and second down. This will open up the play-action game for Diggs. If the Vikings stick with Keenum all the way up to the Green Bay game and design the proper game plan, they can win on Sunday. They get the Ravens at home before going to Cleveland, both of which they should have won, but of course, everything is now up-in-the-air with the Bradford situation, so who knows?

NFC South Winner

11/10 Atlanta Falcons    15/8 Carolina Panthers

6/1 New Orleans Saints    6/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It looks like the Saints finally have the competitive team they need to return to dominance, but with the Officials awarding Carolina wins trying to make Cam Newton something he is not, and giving Atlanta more breaks than can be reasonably explained, it is hard to bet the Saints. They represent fantastic value at 6/1 in this group.

AFC South Winner

17/10 Houston Texans    2/1 Jacksonville Jaguars

 9/4 Tennessee Titans    14/1 Indianapolis Colts

The Injuries in Houston, the inconsistencies in Jacksonville, and the underwhelming performance of Tennessee make this the most competitive Division right now. Jacoby Brissett is as effective as any other Quarterback in the Division, and when Andrew Luck returns is a few weeks he will tower over the rest, so 14/1 on the Colts is looking attractive in the moment.

NFC East Winner

4/9 Philadelphia Eagles    7/2 Dallas Cowboys   

9/2 Washington Redskins    80/1 New York Giants

The loss of Josh Norman blows a pretty large hole in the Redskins attempt to overtake a very well-balanced Eagles squad that we envision winning the NFC. Their return head-to-head match Week Seven in Philadelphia without Norman could put the Division out of reach.

AFC North Winner

2/5 Pittsburgh Steelers    7/2 Baltimore Ravens

5/1 Cincinnati Bengals    500/1 Cleveland Browns

The reports of the Steelers demise will prove to be entirely premature. We expect them to knock off the Chiefs this weekend as part of their turnaround.

NFC West Winner

1/4 Seattle Seahawks    5/1 Los Angeles Rams

13/2 Arizona Cardinals    500/1 San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks could have been had this year, but the Rams and 49’ers still are a year away, while Arizona is a couple of years past it. IF Adrian Peterson can turn it around for the Cardinals, it will be very surprising.

AFC East Winner

1/12 New England Patriots   7/1 Buffalo Bills

33/1 Miami Dolphins    33/1 New York Jets

The Patriots too could have been had this season, but no one was ready for it. Until they lose this Division, they own it.

AFC

13/8 New England Patriots    3/1 Kansas City Chiefs    6/1 Pittsburgh Steelers

9/1 Denver Broncos     20/1 Jacksonville Jaguars    20/1 Oakland Raiders

22/1 Houston Texans    22/1 Tennessee Titans    25/1 Baltimore Ravens

28/1 Buffalo Bills    33/1 Cincinnati Bengals    40/1 Miami Dolphins

66/1 Indianapolis Colts    66/1 Los Angeles Chargers    200/1 New York Jets

1000/1 Cleveland Browns

The Patriots are gunning for their seventh straight AFC Championship berth, which we will continue to grant them until they miss. We can’t see anyone seriously challenging them at this point.

NFC  

3/1 Green Bay Packers    9/2 Atlanta Falcons    5/1 Seattle Seahawks

13/2 Philadelphia Eagles    12/1 Carolina Panthers    12/1 Dallas Cowboys

16/1 Detroit Lions    18/1 Minnesota Vikings    20/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

22/1 Washington Redskins    25/1 Los Angeles Rams    25/1 New Orleans Saints

50/1 Arizona Cardinals    150/1 New York Giants    200/1 Chicago Bears

500/1 San Francisco 49ers

The NFC is a completely different story. Mike McCarthy is a lousy coach who finds a way to miss the Super Bowl every year (except once). Atlanta is poorly coached and has a suspect Defence. Seattle’s Offensive Line will be their downfall. We like the Eagles at 13/2 as our main selection. Minnesota is their own worst enemy but would have a shot if they settled on a Quarterback and Running Back at 16/1, but history says that won’t happen. The Redskins could get hot as a Wild Card at 22/1 and if the Saints somehow get a fair shake and win the NFC South, 25/1 would be lovely.

Super Bowl

4/1 New England Patriots        6/1Green Bay Packers    7/1 Kansas City Chiefs

10/1 Atlanta Falcons    10/1 Seattle Seahawks   12/1 Philadelphia Eagles

12/1 Pittsburgh Steelers    20/1 Denver Broncos    22/1 Carolina Panthers

25/1 Dallas Cowboys    40/1 Detroit Lions    40/1 Jacksonville Jaguars

40/1 Minnesota Vikings   40/1 Oakland Raiders    50/1 Baltimore Ravens

50/1 Los Angeles Rams    50/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers    50/1 Tennessee Titans

50/1 Washington Redskins    66/1 Buffalo Bills    66/1 Houston Texans

66/1 New Orleans Saints    80/1 Cincinnati Bengals    100/1 Los Angeles Chargers

150/1 Arizona Cardinals    150/1 Indianapolis Colts    150/1 Miami Dolphins

250/1 New York Giants    500/1 Chicago Bears    500/1 New York Jets

2500/1 Cleveland Browns    2500/1 San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia at 12/1, Minnesota at 40/1 and Washington at 50/1 could be fun.